Week 10 Preview: Teams Fight For Top 4 Placement In First Playoff Committee Rankings Due Tuesday

October 29, 2019 by Dave Congrove

The College Football Playoff Committee will release its first rankings of the 2019 season next Tuesday night (November 5), sandwiched between a college basketball doubleheader on ESPN. The approximate start time of the reveal is 9 p.m. ET from the State Farm Champions Classic doubleheader at Madison Square Garden. The rankings will be revealed live after the conclusion of the Kansas-Duke game and before tip-off of the Michigan State-Kentucky game.

Subsequent rankings will be announced live on ESPN each Tuesday beginning at 7, with the Final Four and bowl matchups announced on Sunday, December 8 from Noon-4 p.m.

Many of the top-ranked teams have nothing to worry about this weekend, thanks to a bye week. The list of idle teams includes the top three teams in the FWAA-NFF Super 16 Poll - LSU, Alabama and Ohio State. Also idle are 5th-ranked Penn State, 9th-ranked Oklahoma, and 13th-ranked Minnesota.

That's a total of 5 teams in the AP Top 10, and 6 of the top 13 that won't see action this week.

In all, a whopping 35 teams are idle.

So who's left to watch?

The top game on the list this week is the 97th annual Florida-Georgia border war in Jacksonville. Much to the chagrin of the schools and the city of Jacksonville, virtually everyone still refers to this game as "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party". This is the second consecutive year that both combatants come into this game ranked in the top ten. Last year, it was #7 Georgia vs. #10 Florida. This year, it's #6 Florida vs. #7 Georgia. The 'Dawgs lead the all-time series 51-43-2 and have taken the last two in routs of 36-17 (last year) and 42-7 (2017). Georgia opened as a 4.5-point Vegas favorite and that number had climbed to 6 by Tuesday afternoon. The Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com have Georgia favored by just under 7 (6.96). The winner becomes a virtual lock for the SEC Championship game. The loser gets bounced from any shot at inclusion in the Final Four College Football Championship playoff.

Florida-Georgia isn't the only rivalry game taking place this week. There's the 89th meeting of BYU-Utah State, the 64th meeting of Miami-Florida State, the 117th Sunflower Showdown between Kansas and Kansas State, and Virginia-North Carolina's 124th edition of "The South's Oldest Rivalry".

We also get Army at Air Force in the second round of this year's competition between the academies for the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy. Navy defeated Air Force 34-25 on October 5. Army is in current possession of the trophy for a second straight year.

Top Games Conference-by-Conference

American: East division leaders SMU (8-0, 4-0) and Memphis (7-1, 3-1) battle in Liberty Bowl Stadium. As noted in this week's Feature Picks, Memphis has won 18 of its last 19 regular season home games with the lone loss in that span coming against last year's UCF squad by a single point. These two teams, along with division foe Navy and cross-division rival Cincinnati, are in the mix for the Group Of Five automatic bid to the Cotton Bowl. The computer takes Memphis by 3.24 points.

ACC: Clemson plays FCS member Wofford as a 62.33-point computer favorite so we can't call that the top game in this league. I'll take Virginia at North Carolina as both teams will be fighting to stay in the hunt for the Coastal division title. The Cavs come in with zero momentum, having lost 3 of their last 4 after a 4-0 start. The Tar Heels have won 2 of their last 3 and the lone loss came in 6 overtimes at Virginia Tech. The computer has Virginia as a 6.39-point upset favorite, but the trend line has UNC by 4.61.

The computer doesn't think Virginia Tech at Notre Dame will be worth watching as it favors the Irish by 20.81. The Hokies have won 3 straight against mostly meek or weak competition so it will be interesting to see how they fare in South Bend. Since Virginia Tech (5-2) scheduled 2 FCS teams this season and only can count one of those toward its bowl eligibility, the school has to get to 7 wins to become bowl eligible for the 27th straight year.

Big 10: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin are all idle. Of the 8 teams seeings action this week, none are better than 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the conference. Since the computer has Purdue as an upset home winner over Nebraska, I'll take that one as the game to watch in the Big Ten this week.

Big 12: The Kansas-Kansas State rivalry draws my attention. Both schools have new head coaches, and both are performing well in relation to expectations. Former North Dakota State head coach Chris Klieman coached the Wildcats to a huge 48-41 upset win at home over Oklahoma this past Saturday, while Les Miles led Kansas to a 37-34 home upset of Texas Tech after nearly knocking off Texas the week before that. The Wildcats are 5-2 while the Jayhawks are 3-5.

Conference USA: FAU (5-3, 3-1) and Western Kentucky (5-3, 4-1) battle to stay in the hunt for first place in the East division in Bowling Green and the computer favors the visiting Owls by 2.44 in an upset. But both teams trail Marshall (5-3, 3-1) since the Herd knocked off the Hilltoppers (26-23) and FAU (36-31) over the past two weeks.

Independents: Notre Dame hosts Virginia Tech, BYU visits Utah State, Army is at Air Force, and New Mexico State is idle. Therefore, I'll take Liberty at UMass by default as it's the only game this week with face-up competition between two independent programs. The Flames (5-3) are coming off a 44-34 loss at lowly Rutgers while the Minutemen (1-7) will try to secure their second win of the year. The computer likes Liberty just under the 21.5-point Vegas spread at 20.07.

MAC: This conference is a complete mess. Only three teams in the conference are above .500 and none of those have a good enough conference record to lead their division. The two teams tied at the top of the East division - Miami and Ohio - are each 4-4 overall. The West division leader, Ball State is also just 4-4 overall. The best thing you do this week if a MAC game is on TV is look away.

Mountain West: Boise State leads the Mountain while San Diego State leads the West. Those teams have won 4 of the 6 conference championship games, but never have they played each other in the title game. This week, the Broncos are a 17.71-point computer favorite at San Jose State while the Aztecs are idle. The most interesting game involving a MWC school this week is Utah State hosting BYU and the computer takes the Aggies by a mere 2/10ths of a point.

PAC-12: Every game in this conference this week is interesting, but I'll narrow it down to two with Utah at Washington and Oregon at USC because the outcomes are huge for the Utes and Trojans who are tied for the South division lead. The Trojans own the tie-breaking win with their upset of Utah on September 20. Oregon has the North all but locked up.

SEC: We already previewed Georgia-Florida at the top of this article and there aren't any other games that directly impact a division title chase. Therefore, I'll take Tennessee's home game against UAB. As absurd as it seems, this is an important contest for the Vols (3-5) who need 3 more wins to get to bowl eligibility. It's also important that Tennessee wins big to satisfy a fan base still reeling from the opening day loss to Georgia State. The Vegas spread is only 9-1/2, but the computer has Rocky Top by 24.39.

Sun Belt: Appalachian State hosts Georgia Southern on Halloween night. The Mountaineers are among the favorites to capture the Group Of Five entry to the Cotton Bowl so every game they play is of the utmost importance. The Boone, North Carolina school is 38-6 against Sun Belt teams since moving up from the FCS to join the conference in 2014. Two of those losses have come against this week's opponent. Vegas has Appalachian State by 18, but the computer puts the margin much lower at 11.57.

Undefeated

Here are the 9 teams that remain perfect, along with their schedule this week (note that 5 of the 9 are idle):

American:
SMU - Visits Memphis (Saturday)

ACC:
Clemson - Hosts FCS member Wofford (Saturday)

Big 12:
Baylor - Hosts West Virginia (Thursday)

Big 10:
Minnesota - Idle
Ohio State - Idle
Penn State - Idle

SEC:
Alabama - Idle
LSU - Idle

Sun Belt:
Appalachian State - Hosts Georgia Southern (Thursday)

Winless

Akron, New Mexico State and Rice are still searching for their first victory.

Akron is a 6.11-point underdog at Bowling Green, and Rice is a is a 12.75-point home underdog to Marshall..

New Mexico State is idle.

FBS vs. FCS

114 games this year pit FBS teams against FCS schools. That's two more than a season ago when FBS teams won 105 of 112 games.

There is one FBS-FCS game this week as Clemson hosts Wofford.

FBS teams are 100-3 (.971) for the season. Since we began tracking this in 2003, the FBS schools are 1,424-127 (.918).

FCS victories over FBS teams in 2019:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)

FCS victories over FBS teams in 2018
August 29: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

CLEMSON - Won 23 straight over-all (FBS longest). Won 25 straight regular season games (FBS longest) games. Won 19 straight conference games (FBS longest). Won 10 straight true road games (FBS longest).
Last: 59-7 home win over Boston College on October 26.
Next: Hosts FCS member Wofford on November 2.

ALABAMA - Won 31 straight home games (FBS longest).
Last: 48-7 home win over Arkansas on October 26.
Next: Hosts LSU on November 9.

RUTGERS - Lost 17 straight conference games (FBS longest).
Last: 44-34 home win over Liberty on October 19.
Next: Visits Illinois on November 2.

AKRON - Lost 13 straight overall (FBS longest). Lost 6 straight home games (FBS longest).
Last: 49-0 at Northern Illinois on October 26.
Next: Visits Bowling Green on November 2.

NEW MEXICO STATE - Lost 15 straight vs FBS teams (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 41-7 at Georgia Southern
Next: Visits Ole Miss on November 9.

RICE - Lost 15 straight road games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 20-6 at home to Southern Miss on October 19.
Next: Hosts Marshall on November 2.