About the Data

Line in parenthesis is the opening line from Doc's College Football Picks. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The home team is capitalized.

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis. Since 2002, the computer's upset picks are 859-714 ATS (.549).

SU ATS
This Week 1-4 (.200) 3-2 (.600)
Last Week 4-3 (.571) 4-3 (.571)
This Season 35-49 (.417) 44-40 (.524)
Last Season 33-64 (.340) 48-49 (.495)

The computer's opposite picks were 48-49 ATS in 2020 after a 38-38 campaign in 2019 and an amazing 62-27 season in 2018. A .500 record over each of the last two seasons is still rather incredible for picking outright upsets. The top plays in 2020 include the computer's outright upset picks of Indiana over Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. Other impressive 2020 picks include Texas A&M beating Florida as a 7-point underdog, Memphis ending a 13-game losing streak to UCF, and Florida State under the spread against North Carolina. The Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including its picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada. Last year, the computer called both UCF upset losses to Pitt and Cincinnati, the first of which ended a 25-game winning streak, and the latter that ended a 19-game conference winning streak. It also pegged Virginia's upset of Virginia Tech that snapped a 15-game losing streak in the rivalry for the Cavaliers. In 2018, the computer correctly picked Clemson in an upset over Alabama in the national championship game after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida.

The computer's opposite picks were 16-11 ATS over the past 4 weeks, including picks of Purdue over Michigan State, TCU over Baylor, and Oregon State over Arizona State.

Ole Miss by 0.41 over MISSISSIPPI STATE (-1) - Thanksgiving Day. Lane Kiffin's Rebels are 9-2 and sit at No. 9 in the latest playoff committee rankings, 8th in the Super 16 Poll, but 16th in the Congrove Computer Rankings. Mike Leach has his Bulldogs at 7-4 and would love to guide his team to a 4th win in the last 6 Egg Bowl rivalry games, and the trend line flips the computer pick to Mississippi State by 2.86. Ole Miss leads the series 63-48-6.

SUATSOle Miss won 31-21.

USC by 9.14 over Brigham Young (-7) - Saturday, November 27. The big question is whether or not anyone will show up to watch at the Coliseum which was half-empty for its rivalry loss to UCLA last Saturday. The computer upset pick looks silly on the surface, and the computer trend line backs up that thought as it flips the pick to BYU by 10.20. But stranger things have happened and, while USC's 92nd-ranked defense has to stop BYU's No. 18 offense, the Cougars' 73rd-ranked defense also has to stop the Trojan's 27th-ranked offense. Anyone want to take a chance on USC 42-38? This is just the 4th-ever meeting between these schools and USC leads 2-1 with BYU taking the most-recent clash, 30-27 in OT, in 2019.

SUATSBYU won 35-31.

Florida State by 0.64 over FLORIDA (-2.5) - Saturday, November 27. Florida State started 0-4 and is now 5-6. Florida started 3-1 and is also now 5-6 with 4 straight losses to FBS teams. And, the Gators fired their head coach 6 days before facing its biggest state rival. Covid prevented this game from being played last year for the first time since the series began in 1958. The Gators have won the last two by 23 points and 27 points to take a 36-26-2 lead in the Sunshine Showdown, but have dropped 7 of the last 10. The computer trend line increases the margin to 2.86 for the 'Noles who had taken 4 straight at The Swamp before losing 40-17 in 2019.

SUATSFlorida won 24-21.

Miami (O) by 0.80 over KENT STATE (-1.5) - Saturday, November 27.  Kent State has the MAC's best offense and worst defense. Nationally, the Golden Flashes rank 12th on offense and 123rd on defense. The MAC East crown will be decided in this head-to-head confrontation with Kent State listed as a slim favorite in the sportsbooks, while the computer takes the visiting RedHawks by just 0.80. The computer trend line supports the current computer pick and pushes the margin to 2.30.

SUATSKent State won 48-47 in OT.

RUTGERS by 5.73 over Maryland (-1.5) - Saturday, November 27. Maryland head coach Mike Locksley is having the best season of his head coaching career - and the Terrapins are just 5-6. Over-all, Locksley has an 11-49 (.183) record vs. FBS schools, including 9-23 (.281) in College Park. His Big Ten record is 5-17 (.227). Of course, he was a 2-26 as a head coach when they hired him so they had to know what they were in for. The computer trend line increases the advantage for the Scarlet Knights to 9.21.

SUATSMaryland won 40-16.

Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002, our picks in this category are 1,276-436 (.745) SU, 860-852 (.502) ATS.

SU ATS
This Week 7-3 (.700) 5-5 (.500)
Last Week 9-0 (1.000) 7-2 (.778)
This Season 62-18 (.775) 45-35 (.563)
Last Season 38-15 (.717) 26-27 (.491)

For the past few weeks, we used the computer trend line to assist in picking these games. Essentially, if the current computer margin exceeds the spread, and the trend line exceeds the current computer line, we took that game. That method delivered records of 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS this week after goling 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS the prior week. Combined marks over the past 4 weeks were 31-8 SU, 22-17 ATS.

Boise State (-2.5) by 3.69 over SAN DIEGO STATE - Friday, November 26. These cross-division Mountain West Conference rivals haven't met since 2018 when San Diego State won 19-13. Over-all, they've split 6 meetings. The Aztecs have a better-balanced attack with 56% of their yards on the ground while the Broncos have had 68.5 of their offense produced through the air.  BSU ranks 9th in the conference is run defense and SDSU ranks 9th in pass defense. The computer trend line has BSU favored by 4.88 points, which is 2.38 points higher than the current spread and 1.19 points higher than the current computer margin. We don't usually predict a score, but we''ll go with Boise State, 31-27.

SUATSSan Diego State won 27-16.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-8) by 9.20 over Eastern Michigan - Friday, November 26. The Chips have won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. The Eagles need one more win for their best tally since 1987 (10-2). The computer trend line pushes CMU's win margin up slightly to 9.46.

SUATSCentral Michigan won 31-10.

IOWA STATE (-14.5) by 15.40 over Texas Christian - Friday, November 26. The firing of Gary Patterson by TCU still has us perplexed. The man had 55 TCU players drafted to the NFL, including 2 in the first round as recently as 2020. The computer trend line increases the Cyclones' edge to 21.58 points.

SUATSIowa State won 48-14.

BAYLOR (-14.5) by 14.87 over Texas Tech - Saturday, November 27. Matt Wells was 5-3 when he was fired by Texas Tech. Sonny Cumbie is 1-2 as the interim head coach with losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State by an average of 27 points. As of late Tuesday night, the line had surprisingly held steady at 14.5 since the opening. The computer margin only slightly exceeds the spread, but the trend line is a whopping 23.55 as the Bears look to stay in the Big 12 title hunt.

SUATSBaylor won 27-24.

UCLA (-7) by 8.42 over California - Saturday, November 27. We've pretty much gotten what was expected out of these two teams in the preseason when the computer projected UCLA to go 7-5 and Cal to go 5-7. Coming off a 62-33 destruction of city rival USC, the up-and-down Bruins are 7-4 and have the most wins in a season since going 8-5 in 2015. Meanwhile, Cal is 4-6. The computer trend line bumps up UCLA's winning margin to 10.53. The Bruins have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against their northern rival and are 56-34-1 in the series.

SUATSUCLA won 42-14.

SOUTHERN MISS (-10.5) by 15.13 over Florida International - Saturday, November 27. Yes, FIU is that bad. And the computer trend line tacks on another 5.10 points to put the Golden Eagles' advantage at 20.33.

SUATSSouthern Miss won 37-17.

ILLINOIS (-6.5) by 11.69 over Northwestern - Saturday, November 27. Illinois is 4-7. Northwestern is 3-8. So we're a little surprised by the spread, and even more surprised by the computer margin. But the trend line confirms the pick and increases the margin to 12.94.

SUATSIllinois won 47-14.

LOUISVILLE (-2.5) by 9.03 over Kentucky - Saturday, November 27. Kentucky (8-3) won its first six games. Since then, the Wildcats have only defeated Vanderbilt and New Mexico State. Louisville (6-5) hasn't really beaten anyone who's better than average. Thus, we humans aren't eager to agree with this pick - especially the margin - even though the trend line extends Louisville's advantage to 12.99. The Wildcats have won 3 of the last 4 in the series, and the last two by routs of 32 and 46 points. They didn't play in 2020 due to special scheduling affected by Covid.

SUATSKentucky won 52-21.

OKLAHOMA STATE (-4) by 5.66 over Oklahoma - Saturday, November 27. The Sooners have dominated the series with a 90-18-7 record overall including 6 straight and 8 of the last 10. In fact, OU's win percentage in the rivalry is slightly better in Stillwater. What makes this year any different? The Cowboys have allowed one offensive touchdown over their last 4 games and rank 3rd nationally in yards allowed per game. They are also tied for 2nd in points allowed per game. The computer trend line has Oklahoma State by 13.12.

SUATSOklahoma State won 37-33.

SMU (-6.5) by 10.20 over Tulsa - Saturday, November 27. SMU (8-3) has lost 3 of its last 4 after a 7-0 start. Tulsa needs a win to become bowl eligible at 6-6. The computer trend line says the Mustangs regroup after last week's 48-14 blowout loss at Cincinnati and pushes the margin to 14.97.

SUATSTulsa won 34-31.

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002, our picks in this category are 1,010-262 (.794) SU, 683-589 (.537) ATS.

SU ATS
This Week 2-0 (1.000) 0-2 (.000)
Last Week 2-1 (.667) 1-2 (.333)
This Season 32-11 (.744) 19-24 (.442)
Last Season 32-14 (.696) 31-15 (.674)

Our picks in this category since the start of the 2019 season (through November 2021) are 109-43 SU and 86-65 ATS.

For the past few weeks we used the computer trend line to assist in picking these games. Essentially, if the current computer margin is lower than the the spread, and the trend line is below the current computer line, we took that game.

Iowa (-1.5) by 0.21 over NEBRASKA - Friday, November 26. The offensive-challenged Hawkeyes rank last in the Big Ten in yards per game while the 'Huskers rank 2nd. Iowa shouldn't be able to make up the difference on defense and the computer trend line flips the pick to Nebraska outright by 5.27.

SUATSIowa won 28-21.

OREGON (-7) by 4.84 over Oregon State - Saturday, November 27. The Civil War is tied for 6th among the most-played FBS rivalries and Oregon leads the series 66-48-10. The Beavers won last year's meeting 41-38 and have taken 2 of the last 5, but they haven't won in Eugene since a 38-31 victory in double-OT in 2007. Could that change this year? If Washington State loses at Washington on Friday, Oregon State can claim the PAC-12 north title with a win over Oregon, and the computer trend line flips the outright pick to Oregon State by 1.21.

SUATSOregon won 38-29.

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