Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2023), our picks in this category are 1,445-484 (.749) SU, 945-926 (.505) ATS.

	SU	ATS
This Week	2-2 (.500)	2-2 (.500)
Last Week	3-1 (.750)	2-2 (.500)
This Season	29-8 (.784)	17-11 (.607)
Last Season	48-10 (.828)	33-25 (.569)

Right NOW - Get $60 in Free Premium Member Only picks from Doc’s Sports Service, the first stop every morning for 1000’s of sports bettors.

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

ARMY (-16.5) by 17.01 over East Carolina - Saturday, October 19. No one has scored more than 14 points on the Army defense. The Black Knights (6-0, 5-0) have defeated every opponent by at least 17 points, and 23 at home. Army is 1st in the American in total defense, 3rd in total offense, and 1st in rushing offense. The Pirates (3-3, 1-1) are 8th in total offense and 7th in total defense. East Carolina is 8-0 all-time vs. Army, but all of those games were played between 1995 and 2004.

SUATSArmy won 45-28

NAVY (-16.5) by 18.90 over Charlotte - Saturday, October 19. Charlotte is last in the American on defense, and 12th out of 14 teams on offense. Navy is 2nd on offense and 9th on defense. The defense numbers would be better, but the Midshipmen allowed 659 yards at Memphis and still won by 12 points, 56-44. We won't surprised if this line balloons to 19 by game day which would cancel this pick.

SUATSNavy won 51-17

Kentucky (-1.5) by 3.5 over FLORIDA - Saturday, October 19. This game opened in favor of Florida (-1.5) and quickly flipped to Kentucky after we posted it as an upset play in favor of the Wildcats. Florida QB Graham Mertz is out for the season with a torn ACL which means the Gators MUST now rely on freshman DJ Lagway. Mertz was 72-of-94 (76.6%) for 791 yards with 6 TD's and 2 INT's and a passer rating of 164.09. Lagway is 47-of-72 (65.3%) for 765 yards with 5 TD's and 4 INT's which somehow translates to a passer rating of 166.34. Neither has been a running threat. Both Florida and Kentucky offenses have been somewhat anemic as the Gators rank 11th in the SEC in yards per game and the Wildcats ranks 15th in a 16-team league. But Kentucky's defense ranks 3rd and Florida gets that ominous 15th spot. Billy Napier is 0-2 vs. Kentucky.and the 'Cats have taken 3 straight in the series. Kentucky has also won 2 of the last 3 in Gainesville.

SUATSFlorida won 48-20

TEXAS (-4.5) by 10.22 over Georgia - Saturday, October 19. Texas has actually dropped 6.79 power points since the start of the season, but Georgia has dropped 10.5. That effectively gives the Longhorns a computer trend margin of roughly 14 points. Georgia opened as a 1.5-point favorite. We don't expect a 14-point win, or even a 10-point win. In fact, we suggest staying away if the line goes above 5.5 as we note that the over/under is just 46.5 total points. Texas leads the nation on total defense, but the argument has been made that the Longhorns haven't faced a really good offense. Georgia is 27th on offense, which is 41 spots above the highest-ranked offense that Texas has played (UTSA, 68th). But the 'Dawgs are also, oddly enough, 27th on defense while Texas ranks 7th on offense.

SUATSGeorgia won 30-15

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2023), our picks in this category are 1,091-297 (.791) SU, 736-652 (.530) ATS.

	SU	ATS
This Week	0-1 (.000)	0-1 (.000)
Last Week	2-1 (.667)	1-2 (.333)
This Season	9-5 (.643)	7-7 (.500)
Last Season	22-7 (.759)	12-17 (.414)

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

WASHINGTON STATE (-18.5) by 9.91 over Hawaii - Saturday, October 19. Ashton Jeanty eventually wore down Hawaii last week in a 28-7 Boise State win on the island. That 21-point loss is the Warriors' largest of the season.

SUATSWashington State won 42-10

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis. Since 2002 (thru 2023), the computer's upset picks are 1,027-864 ATS (.543).

	SU	ATS
This Week	2-6 (.250)	2-6 (.250)
Last Week	1-6 (.143)	4-3 (.571)
This Season	23-40 (.365)	29-34 (.460)
Last Season	49-61 (.445)	61-51 (.545)

The computer has called some remarkable upsets in recent history. Here are just a few examples. In 2024, it had Oregon by 1 against a 3.5-point spread for Ohio State and the Ducks won by 1 with a 32-31 final. It had Alabama's upset of Georgia to end the Bulldogs' streaks of 42 regular season wins and 16 straight true road wins. The same day, it also had Louisiana-Lafayette winning at Wake Forest and five more upset wins for a total of seven in one day. Earlier in 2024, it had USC over LSU, Notre Dame over Texas A&M, and Toledo over Mississippi State. The following week, it correctly picked Toledo to lose to Western Kentucky, and SMU by 10.11 when the line favored TCU by 2.5 (SMU won by 24). In 2023, it nailed South Alabama over Oklahoma State, Sacramento State over Stanford, Jacksonville State winning its first game as a FBS school, and FSU upsetting LSU for the second straight season. In week 12 of 2023, it picked UCF (4-5) over Oklahoma State (7-2) during a week in which the computer went 7-3 on outright upset winners and 8-2 against the spread. In 2022, it had FSU over LSU, Kentucky's win at Florida, Syracuse over NC State and TCU over Oklahoma State. It went 4-for-4 with its upset picks on November 19, 2022, including unranked Arkansas over ranked Ole Miss. Further back, the computer correctly picked Clemson's 2018 upset over Alabama in the Natty after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida. In 2020, it called Indiana's upsets of Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. That same season, the Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada.

We have noticed more movement in lines during the week than in years past, likely due to easier access as more states now allow sports wagering. Thus, an upset pick on Monday might NOT be one on Tuesday. Bettors beware of dramatic line movements.

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

Kennesaw by 2.20 over MTSU (-8.5) - Tuesday, October 15. The Owls are last in the FBS in total offense as they average just 226.8 yards per game. The Blue Raiders only rank 106 but average 117 yards more. Kennesaw does have the better defensive stats, allowing 429.6 to MTSU's 488.5. The only win for Middle Tennessee (1-5) came in the season opener over FCS member Tennessee Tech. Kennesaw (0-5) is still looking for that first victory since moving up to the FBS this season.

SUATSMTSU won 14-5

NEW MEXICO STATE by 0.84 over Louisiana Tech (-10.5) - Tuesday, October 15. The Aggies (1-5) rank 126th in the FBS on defense and 128th on offense. The Bulldogs (2-3) rank 23rd on defense and 89th on offense. Louisiana Tech has lost 5 straight on the road and is 1-21 in away games since beating North Texas in late 2020. The lone win was at UTEP. The Aggies have dropped 7 straight to FBS schools going back to the end of last season when a 10-5 campaign ended with losses to Liberty in the CUSA Championship and Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl. Something's gotta give.

SUATSNMSU won 33-30 in 2 OT

Western Kentucky by 4.01 over SAM HOUSTON (-1.5) - Wednesday, October 16. Another early week CUSA clash, following Tuesday night's Kennesaw-MTSU and Louisiana Tech-New Mexico State games. Sam Houston averages 228 on the ground to rank 2nd in CUSA, just a yard behind Liberty. The Hilltoppers rank 4th in run defense. WKU gets 70% of their offense through the air and the Bearkats are 3rd in CUSA in pass defense. These teams are tied with Liberty and Jax State atop the conference with 2-0 league records.  

SUATSWKU won 31-14

Florida State by 9.07 over DUKE (-2.5) - Friday, October 18. Other than Miami, the state of Florida has been a train wreck for college football this year. The Florida Gators are 3-3 (1-2, SEC), The the Knights are 3-3 (1-2, Big 12), FAU is 2-4 (0-2, American) and FIU is 2-4 (1-1, CUSA). The 'Noles are 1-5 (1-4, ACC) and an even bigger train wreck, considering they were a preseason Top 10 team with expectations of winning the conference and representing it in the new 12- team playoff. As it stands, fans are calling for Mike Norvell's head, though not nearly as loudly as Gator fans are calling for Billy Napier's head. Can FSU win this game against Duke? Yes. Should they? Based on talent, yes. Will they? It seems doubtful, especially since DJ Uigalelei appears to be out for the season with a hand injury that required surgery a little over a week ago. Freshman Brock Glenn was 23-of-41 against Clemson in a 29-13 loss. Not bad for for getting thrown into the fire against the Tigers. Uigalelei was only completing 53.8% of his passes and Glenn completed 51.1%. Neither of those numbers will get it done in the long run. FSU has no run game outside of Lawrance Toafili and he is only averaging 38.33 yards per game. The offense is last in the conference and the defense ranks next-to-last. Duke is just 14th on offense, but 2nd on defense. The Blue Devils are 5-1 after suffering their first defeat last Saturday at Georgia Tech.

SUATSDuke won 23-16 (1st-ever win vs FSU. Now 1-22)

OKLAHOMA by 7.86 over South Carolina (-1.5) - Saturday October 19. This game was a Saturday morning addition to the list as the line flipped. We'll see if it stays with the Gamecocks. The Sooners were favored by 5.5 when the line opened.  This is the first meeting between these teams.

SUATSSouth Carolina won 35-9

WEST VIRGINIA by 1.37 over Kansas State (2.5) - Saturday, October 19. West Virginia (3-3, 2-1) and Kansas State (5-1, 2-1) both need this game badly to stay in the Big 12 hunt. All three WVU losses have been to ranked teams, two of which are now in the top 10 with Penn State moving up to No. 3 this week and Iowa State to No. 9. Both of those games were played in Morgantown. Now, Kansas State invades Milan Puskar Stadium with hopes of landing the same result after a thrilling 31-28 win at Colorado last Saturday. These tams are statistically pretty much even on both sides of the ball so it's hard to call this contest anything but a toss-up.

SUATSKansas State won 45-18

LOUISVILLE by 0.86 over Miami, FL (-4.5) - Saturday, October 19. If we're all being honest, Miami should already have 2 losses. First, the 'Canes get a ridiculous overturn of Virginia Tech's game-winning Hail Mary TD pass, and then gets the advantage of an even more egregious no-call on obvious targeting vs. Cal which would have kept the ball and Miami never would have had a chance for the game-winning drive. The question is will they need luck again at Louisville, or will they play a 60-minute game? the 'Ville is 5th on offense in the ACC and 6th on defense. Miami ranks 1st on both sides of the ball, but the numbers are padded in games against Florida A&M and Ball State. The Cards have had their defense issues, too, allowing at least 410 yards to all three previous ACC foes. Miami has had to rally down from 10 down in the fourth quarter to Virginia Tech, and from 20 down in the 4th quarter at Cal. That's a sure way to eventually get bit.

SUATSMiami won 52-45

UTAH STATE by 9.13 over New Mexico (-2.5) - Saturday, October 19. As of late Thursday night, the line ranged from 2.5 to 1.5 at the sportsbooks. The computer's number for the Aggies (9.13) should be ignored, but a 3 to 5 point swing in this game would be all that's needed for them to pull the upset. Utah State is 1-5 with only win over FCS Robert Morris, but lost all others by at least 16. Beat Lobos 44-41 (OT) in Albuquerque 8 games ago (11/24/23) for last FBS win and 7th straight in series. New Mexico is 2-4 after BTB wins vs New Mexico State and Air Force. These schools are 2nd (Utah State) and 3rd in the MWC in total offense. Aggies are 2nd in pass offense, but a whopping 10  INT's contribute to them being minus-8 in gives and takes. On defense, both are at the bottom with Utah State 11th and New Mexico 12th. These teams gain an average of more than 450 yards, but give up nearly 500.  The over/under seems low at 77.5.

SUATSNew Mexico won 50-45