About the Data

Line in parenthesis is the opening line from Doc's College Football Picks. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The home team is capitalized.

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Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2023), our picks in this category are 1,445-484 (.749) SU, 945-926 (.505) ATS.

This Week 3-1 (.750) 2-2 (.500)
Last Week 1-0 (1.000) 1-0 (1.000)
This Season 48-10 (.828) 33-25 (.569)
Last Season 51-14 (.785) 34-31 (.523)

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

UTSA (-9.5) by 18.19 over Marshall - Tuesday, December 19. Frisco Bowl. Marshall will be missing starting QB Cam Fancher, WR Caleb Coombs, OL Trent Holler and possibly RB Rasheen Ali. UTSA's roster is largely intact. That said, the Herd still have a solid defense so scoring points won't be a piece of cake for the Roadrunners. We look for something in the 31-13 range, well under the 51.5 o/u.

NOTE: The line dropped to 7.5 before kick-off when it was learned that Frank Harris would not be able to play at QB for UTSA, following the shoulder injury he suffered in the Tulane game. And the O/U dropped to 46.5.

SUATSUTSA won 35-17

Kansas State (-2.5) by 11.08 over NC State - Thursday, December 28. Pop-Tarts Bowl. Formerly the Cheez-It Bowl, the parent company of both brands opted to show Pop-Tarts a little love. Kansas State gets a10.69-point edge on the computer trend line. QB Will Howard is among the opt-outs for the Wildcats, and Payton Wilson, one of the nation's top defenders, is out for NC State. Kansas State will be QB'd by Avery Johnson who played at Camping World Stadium in the Under Armour High School All-American Game earlier this year. In limited action, he was 23-of-35 for 301 yards and 3 TD's. The dual-threat QB rushed for 263 yards and 6 touchdowns on 45 carries.

SUATSKansas State won 28-19

Clemson (-3.5) by 7.87 over Kentucky - Friday, December 29. Gator Bowl. Clemson will be making a Gator Bowl record 10th appearance, having won 4 of its previous 9. The most infamous Gator Bowl moment has to be Ohio State's head coach Woody Hayes punching Clemson player Charlie Bauman in the throat in the 1978 game that the Tigers won 17-15. The incident caused the school to fire Hayes the next morning after 28 years on the job. For this game, a lot of key players appear to be ready to hit the field. Both starting QB's are in, and RB Will Shipley seemed to indicate that he will play for the Tigers. We expect Phil Mafah to do the same. Kentucky RB Ray Davis has also indicated he will play, but Clemson LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., CB Nate Wiggins and DT Ruke Orhorhoro have opted out. The previous 3 meetings between these teams have all come in bowl games - the 2009 Music City (Clemson, 21-13), the 2006 Music City (Kentucky, 28-20), and the 1993 Peach (Clemson, 14-13).

SUATSClemson won 38-35

Auburn (-4.5) by 5.24 over Maryland - Saturday, December 30. Music City Bowl. Opt-outs seems to point in Auburn's favor so anything under this 5.24-point computer pick looks good. Maryland's Taulia Tagovailoa, the all-time leading QB in the Big Ten, is out. He is joined by TE Corey Dyches, and a ton of defensive backfield players. Auburn's main misses are in the secondary as cornerbacks DJ James and Nehemiah Pritchett sit-out, along with defensive lineman Marcus Harris.

SUATSMaryland won 31-13

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2023), our picks in this category are 1,091-297 (.791) SU, 736-652 (.530) ATS.

This Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
Last Week 1-0 (1.000) 0-1 (.000)
This Season 22-7 (.759) 12-17 (.414)
Last Season 22-17 (.564) 21-18 (.538)

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.


The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis. Since 2002 (thru 2023), the computer's upset picks are 1,027-864 ATS (.543).

This Week 6-10 (.375) 8-8 (.500)
Last Week 1-0 (1.000) 1-0 (1.000)
This Season 49-61 (.445) 59-51 (.536)
Last Season 46-66 (.411) 61-51 (.545)

We have noticed more movement in lines during the week than in years past, likely due to easier access as more states now allow sports wagering. Thus, an upset pick on Monday might NOT be one on Tuesday. Bettors beware of dramatic line movements.

Check back later for possible changes to this list, based on line movement.

Ohio by 6.60 over Georgia Southern (-1.5) - Saturday, December 16. The Myrtle Beach Bowl is 1 of 11 bowl games featuring first-time meetings between the combatants. This one pits Ohio (9-3) from the MAC against Georgia Southern from the Sun Belt (6-6). The Bobcats are 6-8 in bowl games and on a 4-game bowl winning streak which is tied for 4th-longest in the nation. Tim Albin is 19-7 in his last two seasons as head coach in Athens. Georgia Southern is 3-2 in bowl games after last season's loss in the Camellia Bowl to Buffalo. The Sun Belt is 15-10 in bowl games vs. the MAC and 45-34 over-all.  The Eagles gained 75 more yards and 8 scored more points per game than the the Bobcats. But the Bobcats allow 135 fewer yards per game and surrender 14 fewer points. Ohio ranks 4th nationally total 'D" and 5th in scoring scoring 'D'.

SUATSOhio won 41-21

Miami (O) by 1.26 over Appalachian State (-6.5) - Saturday, December 16. Cure Bowl in Orlando. The computer goes opposite the moneyline pick (outright winner) on 4 of the 6 games on the opening Saturday of the bowl season. App State averages 120 more yards and 8 more points per game than Miami. The RedHawks allow 65 fewer yards and 12 fewer points than the Mountaineers. This game has the lowest computer spread of all of this year's bowl games.

SUATSApp State won 13-9

Fresno State by 2.92 over New Mexico State (-3.5) - Saturday, December 16. New Mexico Bowl. These teams have met 19 times. Fresno State has won 18 of those. However, it will be the first meeting in a bowl game. Fresno State will be without head coach Jeff Tedford as he has taken time off for health reasons. The men from Las Cruces head to Albuquerque to take on the San Joaquin Valley squad. Fresno State finished 8-4 with 3 straight losses, while the Aggies (10-4) saw their 8-game winning streak get snapped with a loss to Liberty in the CUSA championship game. The MWC is 13-11 in bowl games vs CUSA and 51-35 over-all. New Mexico State has averaged of 74 more yards of total offense, but scored 1.2 fewer. NMSU has allowed an average of and 2.8 fewer points and almost the exact same yardage.  New Mexico State has played sparingly in bowl games, but never lost one (4-0-1). Fresno State is 14-13 in bowl games. Both teams have won won their last 4 bowl games with the Bulldogs' streak dating back to 2017 while the Aggies' string dates to 1959.

SUATSFresno State won 37-10

Boise State by 1.93 over UCLA (-6.5) - Saturday, December 16. The L.A. Bowl presented by Gronk. Boise State (8-5) named Spencer Danielson its head coach after he led the team to a 3-0 record as an interim head coach. Danielson, the defensive coordinator, was tagged to temporarily lead the team after Andy Avalos was fired on November 12. UCLA went 1-3 down the stretch to finish 7-5. MWC teams are 15-12 in bowl games vs. the PAC-12. UCLA won the only other meeting in 1999. The Bruins will be playing this game a half-hour from their campus.

SUATSUCLA won 35-22

Western Kentucky by 7.13 over Old Dominion (-4.5) - Monday, December 18. The Famous Toastery Bowl is a one-off replacement of the Bahamas Bowl which could not be played this year due to ongoing renovations at the stadium in Nassau. The game will be staged on the campus of UNC-Charlotte. These former CUSA members met 7 times from 2014 to 2021 with WKU winning 6 of those.This is WKU's 5th straight bowl appearance after winning the last 2 to improve to 6-3 all-time. ODU us 1-1, winning the 2016 Bahamas Bowl and losing the 2021 Myrtle Beach Bowl.

SUATSWKU won 38-35 in OT (rallied from 28-0 down).

Northern Illinois by 2.87 over Arkansas State (-2.5) - Saturday, December 23. Camellia Bowl. Using combined rankings, this the second-worst bowl season matchup with No. 87 Arkansas State vs. No. 79 Northern Illinois (166 combined ranking). The worst is No. 88 Georgia State vs. No. 83 Utah State (171 combined ranking) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. These teams met 8 times from 1990-2012 with NIU taking 7 of those. The last meeting came in 2012 in the Mobile-based bowl game which was also won by NIU.

SUATSNIU won 21-19

Duke by 4.70 over Troy (-6.5) - Saturday, December 23. Birmingham Bowl. Duke enters on a 4-bowl winning streak, but head coach Mike Elko is off to Texas A&M so Trooper Taylor, the AHC and RB coach takes over. (Manny Diaz was named Duke's new head coach on December 7). Troy is on a 5-bowl winning streak but Jon Sumrall is off to Tulane so defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato takes over. (Notre Dame OC Gerad Parker was named Troy's new head coach on December 18). These teams had a home-and-home in 2013 and 2014 with Duke winning both. Don't be surprised if this one goes the other way as the Trojans (11-2) are practically playing a home game and the Blue Devils (7-5) only went 2-4 in the second half of the season.

SUATSDuke won 17-10

James Madison by 5.69 over Air Force (-2.5) - Saturday, December 23. Armed Forces Bowl. This game was a later addition to the Upset Picks when the line flipped from JMU to the AFA. The Dukes are without head coach Curt Cignetti who left to take the same position at Indiana after going 52-9 in 5 seasons in Harrisonburg. Holy Cross HC Bob Chesney is Cignetti's replacement, but Damian Wroblewski, who joined James Madison's staff in 2018 as the OL coach and associate head coach for the offense, will serve as interim HC for the bowl game. QB Jordan McCould (3,413 yards, 32 TD's) will apparently play. For Air Force, quarterback injuries played a significant role in the Falcons' collapse from 8-0 to 8-4 - particularly the loss of Zac Larrier. Defense could be a huge factor in this game with AFA ranked 6th nationally in total 'D" and JMU ranked 1st in rushing "D".

SUATSAir Force won 31-21

Rice by 8.76 over Texas State (-3.5) - Tuesday, December 26. First Responder Bowl. Rice is a 3.7-point favorite on the computer trend line. These teams met four times over 60 years apart, with the Owls winning in 1920 and 1987, and the Bobcats prevailing in 1923 and 1986. Now, they're back at it after a 36-year break. This is Texas State's first time ever in a bowl game after moving up to the FBS in 2012. The Owls are 7-6 in their bowl history and looking to win a bowl game for the first time since 2014. Rice went bowl-less from 2015 to 2021 and lost last year to Southern Miss in the Lending Tree (now 68 Ventures) Bowl. Texas State is in its first season under GJ Kinne who spent just one year as the HC at Incarnate Word in the FCS (lost in playoff semis). Rice QB JT Daniels has retired from football on his doctor's advice due to head injuries. His career included stops at USC, Georgia, and West Virginia prior to landing at Rice. Freshman AJ Padgett has QB'd the last 3 games, going 2-1. Sophomore Texas State QB TJ Finley has thrown for 3,287 yards with 24 TD's and 8 INT's.

SUATSTexas State won 45-21

Tulane by 2.73 over Virginia Tech (-13) - Wednesday, December 27. Military Bowl. Virginia Tech had a run of 27 straight bowls from 1993 to 2019 before opting out in the Covid season. The Hokies returned in 2021 without a permanent head coach after firing Justin Fuente who drove the program into the ground. Now, the Hokies are back under Brent Pry and looking to snap a 4-bowl losing streak. The problem is that the opponent for the Hokies (6-6) is a Tulane Green Wave team that is 11-2. But QB Michael Pratt, the school's all-time leader in every passing category, is out and Tulane will be led by interim HC Slade Nagle after Willie Fritz left to fill the Houston vacancy. Jon Sumrall (Troy) is the new hire in New Orleans. Pratt is The computer trend line has VT by 10.9 in a matchup that's being renewed for the first time since 1989. Tulane won 5 of the previous 9.

SUATSVirginia Tech won 41-20

Texas A&M by 12.28 over Oklahoma State (-4) - Wednesday, December 27. Texas Bowl. This game flipped at the sportsbooks to favoring Oklahoma State, as of Tuesday, December 26. This is a rematch of the 2019 Texas Bowl that Texas A&M won 24-21. RB Ollie Gordon II leads the Cowboys. Jaylen Henderson gets his 4th straight start at QB for the Aggies.

SUATSOklahoma State won 31-23

North Carolina by 7.77 over West Virginia (-5.5) - Wednesday, December 27. Duke's Mayo Bowl. The computer trend line has WVU by 1.87. UNC has tons of transfer portal entrants and Drake Maye is opting out as he will declare for the NFL draft. North Carolina will bus a little over 2 hours to get to Charlotte to take on West Virginia. The teams split their previous two meetings which also came in bowl games. The Mountaineers won this game in 2008 when it was called the Meineke Bowl, and the Tar Heels captured the 1997 Gator Bowl. UNC has lost 6 of its last 7 bowl games, including the last three. WVU is 1-4 in its last 5 bowls.

SUATSWest Virginia won 30-10

USC by 4.22 over Louisville (-4.5) - Wednesday, December 27. Holiday Bowl. First-year Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm took the Cardinals (10-3)  to the ACC Championship where they lost to the undefeated Florida State team that got screwed by the College Football Playoff committee. USC was a major disappointment, finishing 7-5 after a 6-0 start. It's been a typical Lincoln Riley team - lots of offense and a non-existent defense. For the bowl game, QB Caleb Williams is among the many Trojans who won't be playing. The computer trend line has Louisville by 12.6 points, without taking the transfers and opt-outs into consideration.

SUATSUSC won 42-28

Miami (FLA) by 10.5 over Rutgers (-2.5) - NOTE: This game flipped to Rutgers on Christmas Day after opening with Miami as a 3-5-point favorite.

Thursday, December 28. Pinstripe Bowl. The weather will be in the 50's with showers likely. In other words, it won't necessarily favor Rutgers. Miami is expected to be without four starters on offense and three on defense. Jacurri Brown will start at QB and see his first action this year after going 27-of-45 for 230 yards with 4 TD's and 3 INT's a year ago. He also ran 53 times for 221 yards. He was third on the depth chart this season, but should have the teams' top receivers to throw to. The running game has 3 of the top 4 backs available. Rutgers roster is largely intact, but the Scarlet Knights' offense only ranked 123 and and QB Gavin Wimsatt completed less than 50% of his passes. The score will likely have to be on the low side for Rutgers to eke-out a victory, and the over-under was at 41.5 at FanDuel on Wednesday (12/27). Miami is looking for its bowl win since 2016 (0-4) and this the school's first since 2020. Rutgers' last bowl win came in 2014 and has only played in one other postseason game since then.

SUATSRutgers won 31-24

Oklahoma by 6.95 over Arizona (-2.5) - Thursday, December 28. Alamo Bowl. QB Dillon Gabriel has led an exodus of players out of the program, so the Sooners will have their work cut out for them against a hungry Arizona squad. The computer trend line lowers Oklahoma's edge to 2.44, without taking transfers and opt-outs into consideration.

SUATSArizona won 38-24

Ohio State by 10.27 over Missouri (-2.5) - NOTE: After 3+ weeks as the favorite, Missouri flipped to the betting underdog. As of December 26, the computer and the sportsbooks were in agreement on Ohio State (-1.5) on the moneyline. If that's the case at kick-off, this would no longer be an upset pick and it would be removed.

Friday, December 29. Cotton Bowl. Marvin Harrison has yet to opt-out, but a ton of Buckeyes have entered the transfer portal. Missouri appears to have its top players onboard. The computer trend line drops the Buckeye's edge to 5.93.

Toledo by 2.62 over Wyoming (-3.5) - Saturday, December 30. Arizona Bowl. Expect no major changes to the rosters of these teams. A tight contest is expected with the computer trend line taking the Rockets by 1.89 points.

SUATSWyoming won 16-15

The computer has called some remarkable upsets in recent history. 2023 upset picks have included South Alabama over Oklahoma State, Sacramento State over Stanford, Jacksonville State winning its first game as a FBS school, and FSU upsetting LSU for the second straight season. in week 12 of 2023, it picked UCF (4-5) over Oklahoma State (7-2) during a week in which the computer went 7-3 on outright uspet winners and 8-2 against the spread. 2022 upset picks include FSU's win over LSU, Kentucky's win at Florida, Syracuse over NC State and TCU over Oklahoma State. It went 4-for-4 with its upset picks on November 19, 2022, including unranked Arkansas' win over a ranked Ole Miss.  In 2018, the computer correctly picked Clemson in an upset over Alabama in the national championship game after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida. In 2020, it called Indiana's upsets of Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. That same season, the Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including its picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada.

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