About the Data

Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at DocSports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The home team is capitalized.


The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis.

This Week 3-5 (.375) 4-4 (.500)
Last Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
This Season 30-46 (.395) 38-38 (.500)
Last Season 46-43 (.517) 62-27 (.697)

The computer did not pick any uspsets on championship weekend, nor for the Army-Navy game. Since early November of 2017, the computer's upset picks are 93-90 (.508) SU, 114-69 (.623) ATS - The computer was 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS on its upset picks in week 14 after going 2-5 SU and 2-5 ATS in week 13. It was 0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS in week 12 after going 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS in week 11. In week 10, the computer was 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS and those perfect marks come on the heels of a 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS performance in week 9. It had slipped to 3-6 SU and 3-6 ATS in week 8 for a second straight sub-.500 performance after going 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS in week 7. Prior to that, the upset picks had gone, 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in week 6, and 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS in week 5. The computer was 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS record in week 4, 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in week 3.  1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS in week 2, and a dismal 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS on opening weekend. The computer has called both UCF upset losses to Pitt and Cincinnati, the first of which ended a 25-game winning streak, and the latter that ended a 19-game conference winning streak. It also pegged Virginia's upset of Virginia Tech that snapped a 15-game losing streak in the rivalry for the Cavaliers.

Last season, the computer also had a bad opening week, but recovered to go a remarkable 62-27 ATS. In 2018, the computer correctly picked Clemson in an upset over Alabama in the national championship game after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games (5-5 straight up). On the conference championship weekend, the computer correctly forecast its only upset pick of the week to improve to 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS over the last two weeks of the season. The week before that, the computer was 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS. Just prior to that, the computer had one of its worst weeks in awhile but still went 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS. Those results came after 3 fantastic winning weeks where the computer was a combined 14-6 SU and 14-4 ATS. Among the computer's more spectacular upset picks last season were Iowa State over West Virginia, Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3.21 over Southern Methodist (-3) - Saturday, Dec. 21 - This is part of a 6-pack of bowl games on the opening weekend of the postseason. The Owls (10-3) get the advantage of playing in their home stadium where they were 5-2 this season with the only losses against UCF and a solid Marshall team. SMU (10-2) was 4-2 on the road this year with losses at Navy and Memphis in the final four weeks of the season. FAU will be without head coach Lane Kiffin who resigned to become the head coach at Ole Miss. Instead, the Owls will be led by defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer as interim head.

SUATSFAU won 52-28.

Washington State by 15.94 over Air Force (-2.5) - Friday, December 27 - The Falcons (10-2) were a pleasant surprise in the Mountain West while the Cougars (6-6) were a major disappointment in the PAC-12. Washington State ranked 78th in the nation in rushing defense in the regular season while the AFA ranked 3rd in rushing offense. However, it should also be pointed out that Air Force played the nations 17th-easiest schedule and that the Falcons' 40th-ranked pass defense will be facing the No. 1 passing offense. It might be difficult for Air Force to keep up.

SUATSAir Force won 31-21.

Ohio State 4.76 over Clemson (-2.5) - Saturday, December 28 - This semifinal playoff game will take place in the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona. The last time these teams met in the Final Four, the Tigers blanked the Buckeyes 31-0 in the same venue in 2016 with the computer favoring Ohio State by 6.36 and the oddsmakers by 3-1/2. In his first season as head coach, Ryan Day has led Ohio State to the precipice of a national title shot, but he'll have to figure out a way to do something no team has done to the Tigers in the last 28 games - beat them. Dabo Swinney is 5-2 in Final Four games, including 4-1 in semifinal games.

SUATSClemson won 29-23.

Western Michigan by 3.25 over Western Kentucky (-3.5) - Monday, Dec. 30 - The computer trend line flips the computer's pick to Western Kentucky by 2.63 points. Both teams are making their 5th bowl appearance in the last 6 years - Western Kentucky (8-4) missed the bowl season last year and Western Michigan (7-5) missed out in 2017. The Hilltoppers are 3-2 all-time in bowl games, while the Broncos are just 1-8. This WKU appearance comes in Tyson Helton's first season as head coach. Former Western Michigan QB Tim Lester has led the Broncos to a bowl game for the second year in-a-row, with the only absence coming in his first year at the helm in 2016 when his eligible team was left out with a 6-6 record. Western Michigan brings the nation's 22nd-ranked offense to this game, while WKU ranks 87th. Conversely, the Broncos rank 82nd on defense while the Hilltoppers rank 30th.

SUATSWestern Kentucky won 23-20.

Illinois by 1.04 over California (-7) - Monday, Dec. 30 - The Redbox Bowl in Santa Clara is in the backyard of the Golden Bears so it's practically a home game. Cal lost 10-7 to TCU in overtime in last year's Cheez-It Bowl in Phoenix. Illinois is in the postseason for the first time since 2014. This is Cal's third season under Justin Wilcox (19-18) and the Illini's fifth under Lovie Smith (15-33). Both teams have pedestrian defenses (Cal ranks 63, Illinois 78), and horrendous offenses (Cal ranks 117 and Illinois 119). Somehow, Illinois defeated Wisconsin and Michigan State, and Cal managed to knock off Washington and Washington State.

SUATSCal won 35-20.

Kentucky (-1.97) over Virginia Tech (-3) - Tuesday, Dec. 31 - The Belk Bowl in Charlotte should provide the Hokies with the environment of a home game due to their geographical proximity. Virginia Tech managed an 8-4 finish, winning 6-of-8 after being routed by Duke 45-10 in late September. Kentucky fought through QB injuries to finish 7-5 and comes into this game on a 3-game winning streak. This will be Bud Foster's last game as the defensive coordinator at Virginia Tech. This year, Foster game-planned back-to-back shutouts over Georgia Tech (45-0) and Pitt (28-0), but his young defense also allowed 39 to Virginia in the season finale to end a 15-game domination of Virginia Tech's state rival. The Hokies turned to Sophomore QB Hendon Hooker after a slow start and Hooker brings a 171.91 passer rating into this game with 11 touchdown passes against just 2 INT's. He also rushed for 305 and 5 more scores in 7 games.as the starter. Kentucky ended a four-bowl losing streak with a 27-24 win over Penn State in last season's Citrus Bowl while Virginia Tech lost a second straight bowl game, 35-31, to Cincinnati in the Military Bowl.

SUATSKentucky won 37-30.

Kansas State by 16.55 over Navy (-2.5) - Tuesday, Dec. 31 - Talk about a disconnect between Vegas and the computer. The oddsmakers have Navy squeaking out a win while the computer has the Middies getting smacked. In fairness, Navy has wildly surpassed the preseason expectations of being a consensus 5th-place team in the American Conference's west division and the computer trend line only has Kansas State by 5. The Wildcats also performed better than expected in Chris Klieman's first season in Manhattan by finishing tied for 3rd in the Big 12 when the consensus had them finishing next-to-last. Of all the nationally-recognized preseason forecasters, only CollegeFootballPoll.com (6th) and CollegeFootballNews.com (7th) had Kansas State finishing better than 8th.

SUATSNavy won 20-17

Oregon by 1.67 over Wisconsin (-2.5) - Wednesday, Jan. 1 - The computer trend line flips this to Wisconsin by 3.99. The Rose Bowl matchup has two of the brightest offensive stars in college football. Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor finished a distant 5th in the Heisman voting this seating despite rushing for 1,909 yards for his third straight season of more than 1,900 yards. He finished 9th in Heisman voting in 2018 when he ran for nearly 2,200 yards. Oregon's star is QB Justin Herbert who threw for 32 TD's against just 5 INT's and the senior enters his final college game with over 10,000 passing yards and 95 touchdown passes already to his credit.

SUATSOregon won 28-27.

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Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct.

This Week 6-1 (.857) 4-3 (.571)
Last Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
This Season 63-15 (.808) 34-44 (.436)
Last Season 42-20 (.677) 26-36 (.419)

Buffalo (-4.5) by 6.72 over Charlotte - Friday, Dec. 20 - The computer trend line has the Bulls by 8.23 to nearly double the Vegas spread.

SUATSBuffalo won 31-9.

Washington (-3.5) by 13.26 over Boise State - Saturday, Dec. 21 - The Las Vegas Bowl becomes the "Chris Petersen Bowl" as his former team battles his current team in his final game as head coach of Washington. Boise State has a history of upsetting Power 5 schools, but Petersen wrote that playbook while he was in Boise. The computer trend line likes this to be closer than the current 13.26-point computer spread, but still has the Huskies by 9.12 points.

SUATSWashington won 38-7.

Notre Dame (-3.5) by 8.06 over Iowa State - Saturday, Dec. 28 - The computer trend line likes the Irish by 10.89. The computer's preseason forecast predicted the 10-2 season that Notre Dame delivered and picked every single game correctly. Iowa State, on the other hand, was a major disappointment as the Cyclones were picked to go 11-2 and finished 7-5.  This is one of 15 bowls featuring first-time matchups. Notre Dame is 5-4 over its last 9 postseason appearances after losing 9 straight 1994-2006. The Cyclones are 4-10 all-time.

SUATSNotre Dame won 33-9.

Florida (-14) by 14.37 over Virginia - Monday, Dec. 30 - The computer trend line has the Gators (10-2) rolling to victory with a projected margin of 22.7 points. Virginia (9-3) is improved but not yet ready for prime time. Then again, No one saw Virginia rolling to a 28-0 win over SEC member South Carolina in last year's Belk Bowl.

SUATSFlorida won 36-28.

Utah (-7) by 9.02 over Texas - Friday, Dec. 31 - Texas will travel just 79 miles to the Alamodome to face Utah in the Alamo Bowl, but the computer still likes the Utes to cover the spread and the computer trend line likes the Utes by an even-safer 16.26-point cushion. The only previous meeting between these teams took place on September 18, 1982 with the Longhorns prevailing 21-12.

SUATSTexas won 38-10.

Ohio (-7.5) by 11.55 over Nevada - Friday Jan. 3 - The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl takes place after New Year's Day for the first time since 2004 when it was also placed on January 3. The computer tend line takes the Bobcats by 21.10 in the first-ever meeting between these schools. Ohio has faced, and defeated, two Mountain West Schools in bowl games since 2011, including a 27-0 of whipping of San Diego State in last season's Frisco Bowl.

SUATSOhio won 30-21.

Louisiana-Lafayette (-14) by 15.91 over Miami (O) - Monday, Jan. 6 - The computer trend line has the nation's No. 8 offense of the Ragin Cajuns storming past the RedHawks by 24.25 in the Lending Tree Bowl in Mobile (formerly the Dollar General Bowl, the GoDaddy Bowl and the GMAC Bowl).

SUATSLouisiana won 27-17

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct.

This Week 3-1 (.750) 2-2 (.500)
Last Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
This Season 44-18 (.710) 36-26 (.581)
Last Season 27-7 (.794) 19-15 (.559)

Utah State (-7) by 4.34 over Kent State - Friday, Dec. 20 - The computer trend line favors the Golden Flashes by 3.71 to win outright.

SUATSKent State won 51-41.

Arizona State (-4.5) by 2.30 over Florida State - Tuesday, Dec. 31 - The computer tend line only favors by 0.82 and we're looking for an outright Seminole win. With Mike Norvell ready to take over the program a head coach, the mindset has changed in Tallahassee and enough talent is there to handle a Sun Devil team that went 2-4 down the stretch after a 5-1 start.

SUATSArizona State won 20-14.

Tennessee (-1.5) by 0.09 over Indiana - Thursday, Jan. 2 - The computer trend line has Indiana favored by 6.01 to flip the spread and win outright. Both of these teams overachieved in 2019. The Vols (7-5) needed a 5-game winning streak to close the season to receive their first bowl bid since the 2016 Music City Bowl. The Hoosiers (8-4) enter this game on the heels of their first 8-win season since 1993 when they lost to Virginia Tech in the Independence Bowl. That loss began a 4-bowl losing streak and the last Indiana bowl win came in 1991. The Vols have won their last 3 bowl games.

SUATSTennessee won 23-22.

Tulane (-7) by 2.15 over Southern Miss - Saturday, Jan. 4 - These old Metro Conference basketball foes battle each other on the gridiron in the Armed Forces Bowl. The computer trend line likes the Green Wave by 5.72, but that's still under the spread.

SUATSTulane won 30-13.

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