About the Data

Line in parenthesis is the opening line from Doc's College Football Picks. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The home team is capitalized.

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis. Since 2002, the computer's upset picks are 859-714 ATS (.549).

SU ATS
This Week 1-4 (.200) 1-4 (.200)
Last Week 2-1 (.667) 2-1 (.667)
This Season 38-53 (.418) 47-44 (.516)
Last Season 33-64 (.340) 48-49 (.495)

The computer's opposite picks were 48-49 ATS in 2020 after a 38-38 campaign in 2019 and an amazing 62-27 season in 2018. A .500 record over each of the last two seasons is still rather incredible for picking outright upsets. The top plays in 2020 include the computer's outright upset picks of Indiana over Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. Other impressive 2020 picks include Texas A&M beating Florida as a 7-point underdog, Memphis ending a 13-game losing streak to UCF, and Florida State under the spread against North Carolina. The Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including its picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada. Last year, the computer called both UCF upset losses to Pitt and Cincinnati, the first of which ended a 25-game winning streak, and the latter that ended a 19-game conference winning streak. It also pegged Virginia's upset of Virginia Tech that snapped a 15-game losing streak in the rivalry for the Cavaliers. In 2018, the computer correctly picked Clemson in an upset over Alabama in the national championship game after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida.

The computer's opposite picks were 18-12 ATS over the past 5 weeks, including picks of Purdue over Michigan State, TCU over Baylor, and Oregon State over Arizona State.

Kent State by 2.63 over Wyoming (-3) - Tuesday, December 21. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. This is 1 of 18 bowl games this year that features a first-time pairing of schools. The computer trend line flips this pick to Wyoming by 0.97 which is still under the spread.

SUATSWyoming won 52-38.

Iowa State by 1.90 over Clemson (-1) - Wednesday, December 29. Cheez-It Bowl. Check the current line as it's been all over the map, fluctuating from Clemson by 1.5 to Iowa State by 1 and was largely a pick 'em game on December 8. The computer trend line has Iowa State by 2.34.

SUATSClemson won 2013.

Purdue by 7.21 over Tennessee (-3) - Thursday, December 30. Music City Bowl. It's a short trek for Tennessee from Knoxville to Nashville for this clash with Purdue. The computer trend line has the Boilermakers by 4.45. Tennessee opened as a 3-point favorite at Draft Kings, but it was Purdue by 3 at Draft Kings and everywhere else we looked on December 8.

SUATSPurdue won 48-45 (OT).

Michigan by 0.26 over Georgia (-7.5) - Friday, December 31. Orange Bowl (Playoff Semifinal). The computer trend line has Georgia by 1.03 which is still well under the 7-1/2-point spread for Georgia.

SUATSGeorgia won 34-11.

Iowa by 7.11 over Kentucky (-2.5) - Saturday, December 1. Citrus Bowl. Kentucky had largely held steady as a 2.5-point favorite at the sportsbooks as of December 8. The computer trend line flips the pick to Kentucky 2.88..

SUATSKentucky won 20-17

Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002, our picks in this category are 1,276-436 (.745) SU, 860-852 (.502) ATS.

SU ATS
This Week 3-4 (.429) 2-5 (.286)
Last Week 2-0 (1.000) 2-0 (1.000)
This Season 67-20 (.770) 49-38 (.563)
Last Season 38-15 (.717) 26-27 (.491)

For the past few weeks, we used the computer trend line to assist in picking these games. Essentially, if the current computer margin exceeds the spread, and the trend line exceeds the current computer line, we took that game. That method delivered records of 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS this past week after goling 16-3 SU and 12-7 ATS the prior two weeks. Combined marks over the past 5 are now 33-8 SU, 23-17 ATS.

Fresno State (-11) by 13.09 over UTEP - Saturday, December 18. New Mexico Bowl. The fourth bowl game of the season features a Fresno State team that's among the many schools in a head coaching transition and a UTEP program that's going bowling for the first time since 2014 and hasn't won a bowl game since 1967. The Miners are 5-11 all-time in the postseason after losing their last 6. The computer trend line has the Bulldogs by a whopping 20.28.

SUATSFresno State won 31-24.

UTSA (2.5) by 2.93 over San Diego State - Tuesday, December 21. Frisco Bowl. The computer picks UTSA to notch its first bowl win (0-2) against the Aztecs (6-8 in bowls) and the computer trend line backs it up with a projected margin of 8.23. The Conference USA champs come in with a 12-1 record while San Diego State is 11-2 after a crushing 46-13 upset loss to Utah State in the Mountain West title game.

SUATSSan Diego State won 38-24.

Georgia State (-4) by 4.93 over Ball State - Saturday, December 25. Camellia Bowl. The 7-5 Panthers make their third straight bowl appearance, and fifth in the last seven seasons. They split their previous four. Ball State is 1-7 in bowl games after finally breaking into the win column with last year's Arizona Bowl win over San Jose State. Some bookmakers had this game up to 5 for Georgia State on December 9, but the computer trend line has GSU by an even wider margin of 6.89.

SUATSGeorgia State won 51-20.

Nevada (-1.5) by 6.56 over Western Michigan - Monday, December 27. Quick Lane Bowl. Jay Norvell jumped ship and went to Colorado State to replace the fired Steve Addazio which puts an extra wrinkle into the consideration of taking a stake on this game. RB coach Vai Taua was name interim head coach for the bowl season. Nevada is 7-11 in bowl games while Western Michigan is 1-9 with its lone victory coming in the 2015 Bahamas Bowl. The computer trend line has Nevada by 11.92.

SUATSWestern Michigan won 52-24.

Oklahoma (-3.5) by 5.69 over Oregon - Wednesday, December 29. Alamo Bowl. The computer trend line has the Sooners by 6.55 under Bob Stoops who returns to the sidelines for this game after retiring to make room for Lincoln Riley in June of 2017. Riley bolted for USC and Oklahoma hired Clemson DC Brent Venables to replace him. Oregon ended its season at 10-3 with two losses to Utah in 3 weeks by a  combined margin 76-17.

SUATSOklahoma won 47-32.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) by 8.71 over Michigan State - NOTE: Neither Pickett nor Walker will be playing. Thursday, December 30. Peach Bowl. First, we were a bit shocked by the computer's current margin. Then we saw the trend line which balloons the Panthers' advantage to 12.01. The game feature two of the top offensive stars of the 2021 season in QB Kenny Pickett of Pitt and RB Kenneth Walker III of Michigan State, but this game could come down to defense where the Spartans rank 116th while Pitt ranks 40th. More importantly, MSU's pass defense ranks dead last out of 130 teams while Pitt's rushing defense ranks 6th.

SUATSMichigan State won 31-21.

Notre Dame (-1.5) by 2.56 over Oklahoma State - Saturday, January 1. Fiesta Bowl.  This is another game impacted by a head coaching change as Brian Kelly replaced Ed Orgeron at LSU. Nonetheless, the computer trend line has the Irish by 7.09.

SUATSOklahoma State won 37-35.

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002, our picks in this category are 1,010-262 (.794) SU, 683-589 (.537) ATS.

SU ATS
This Week 3-0 (1.000) 1-2 (.333)
Last Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
This Season 34-11 (.756) 19-26 (.422)
Last Season 32-14 (.696) 31-15 (.674)

Our picks in this category since the start of the 2019 season (through November 2021) are 109-43 SU and 86-65 ATS.

For the past few weeks we used the computer trend line to assist in picking these games. Essentially, if the current computer margin is lower than the the spread, and the trend line is below the current computer line, we took that game.

Liberty (-8.5) by 7.96 over Eastern Michigan - Saturday, December 18. The Flames closed the season weakly with just two wins in their last six games and those came against lowly UMass and a so-so North Texas squad. EMU was seemingly up-and-down all year, delivering wins over bowl teams like Western Michigan and Toledo, but losing to Ohio. The computer trend line has Liberty by just 2.64.

SUATSLiberty won 56-20.

Wisconsin (-7) by 6.47 over Arizona State - Thursday, December 30. Las Vegas Bowl. The Sun Devils have won 3 of the previous 4 meetings as these school squared of ff in 1967, 1968, 2010 and 2013. Both schools have made 32 bowl appearance with Wisconsin going 17-15 while Arizona State has gone 15-16-1. The computer trend line gives the Badgers a 5.06-point edge in this meeting.

SUATSWisconsin won 20-13.

Alabama (13.5) by 7.29 over Cincinnati - Friday, December 31. Cotton Bowl. We don't want to be accused of giving Nick Saban any tasty rat poison but the computer trend line drops Alabama's edge all the way down to 2.17.

SUATSAlabama won 27-6.

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