About the Data

Line in parenthesis is the opening line from Doc's College Football Picks. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The home team is capitalized.

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Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002, our picks in this category are 1,346-460 (.745) SU, 911-895 (.504) ATS.

This Week 4-0 (1.000) 3-1 (.750)
Last Week 1-1 (.500) 1-1 (.500)
This Season 16-1 (.941) 10-7 (.588)
Last Season 51-14 (.785) 34-31 (.523)

BYU (-1) by 10 over CIncinnati - Friday, 9/29. A Big 12 head-to-head matchup for 2 of the conference's four new members (UCF and Houston are the others). This game became an opposite play AFTER Brigham Young opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the line quickly flipped to favoring the Bearcats on the road. By the time the line closed, it swung back in favor if BYU by 1. BYU outranks Cincinnati 36 to 79 in total offense, and 45 to 50 in total defense. The computer favored BYU by 14.08 in the preseason so that margin has dropped 4 points, but still comfortably points to the Cougars.

SUATSBYU won 35-27

Washington (-17.5) by 29.12 over ARIZONA - Saturday, 9/30. Washington ranks 1st in the nation in total offense at 593.3 yards per game and QB Michael Penix leads the nation at 409 yards per game and 16 TD's with just 2 picks. Penix is tied with USC's Caqleb Williams for the best Heisman odds at FanDuel.com. The Huskies (4-0, 1-0) head into this week's game ranked 2nd by the computer, 8th by the coaches and 6th in the Super 16 Poll. A lot of the defensive yardage and points allowed have come in garbage time as the Huskies have outscored their opponents by a cumulative 130-27 in the first half. Arizona (3-1, 1-0)  has started exactly as the computer predicted, and now they are picked to go 2-6 over the final 8 games.

Southern Cal (-21.5) by 36.25 over COLORADO - NOTE: The line opened at 23.5 and moved favorably for this pick to 21.5 by early Thursday morning.
Saturday, 9/30. Colorado ranks 112th in pass defense,128th in total defense and 118th in scoring defense. USC quarterback Caleb Williams is tied with Washington QB Michael Penix for the best odds of winning the Heisman. Mich like the game at Oregon this past Saturday, this one could be over quickly. The only question might be how many points are allowed in the second half when the Trojan starters begin sitting.

SUATSUSC won 48-41 (blow most of a spread-beating 48-21 lead)

MARYLAND (-14.5) by 20.20 over Indiana - Saturday, 9/30. Taking this game has us worried a lit bit if only because Maryland head coach Mike Locksley's career record as a head coach is one of the worst in history at 27-54 overall and just 12-27 in the Big Ten. But we have to acknowledge that the Terrapins are 4-0 and are projected to go 5-3 the rest of the way, thanks largely to QB Taulia Tagovailoa who leads all conference QB's in passing yards per game and can be a dual-threat, if needed. The offense leads all B1G teams in yards per game. The Hoosiers (2-2) are projected to go 0-8 with an offense that ranks 114th. The passing defense has decent numbers but they've played Akron and Indiana State  The only surprise was how closely they played Louisville in a 21-14 loss in Bloomington.

SUATSMaryland won 44-17

Oregon (-27.5) by 39.04 over STANFORD - NOTE: This pick was a later addition to this list, even though the spread had moved unfavorably upward by 4.5 points since the 23-point open.
Saturday, 9/30. There are so many factors that point to this game as a 40-point blowout. Oregon sits between Washington and USC as the No. 2 team statistically in total offense, and ranks 11th in total defense. Stanford's ranks are 83rd in total offense and 120th on defense. In power ratings, the computer has the Huskies at No. 2 in the nation and the Cardinal at No. 126.
Free Pick- Tony Sink - DocSports

SUATSOregon won 42-6

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002, our picks in this category are 1,047-273 (.793) SU, 703- 617 (.533) ATS.

This Week 2-0 (1.000) 1-1 (.500)
Last Week 2-1 (.667) 2-1 (.667)
This Season 8-2 (.800) 6-4 (.600)
Last Season 22-17 (.564) 21-18 (.538)

Alabama (-14.5) by 9.84 over MISSISSIPPI STATE - NOTE: This pick was originally selected when the line was at 15.5. It had dropped a point by early Thursday morning, which makes it obviously more risky to take the under.
Saturday, 9/30. Alabama ranks last in the SEC in total offense and just 7th in total defense. The Bulldogs rank next-to-last in the SEC in total defense and 10th on offense. All of that appears to point to a fairly close and low scoring game amidst a lot of clanging cow bells which makes Starkville one of the most annoying home crowd environments for visitors.

Georgia (-14.5) by 10.45 over AUBURN - NOTE: This pick was originally selected when the line was at 16.5. It had dropped 2 points by early Thursday morning, which makes it obviously more risky to take the under.
Saturday, 9/30. The Deep South's oldest rivalry dates back to 1892 and has been played 127 times to tie for 3rd most-played. Georgia leads 63–56–8, thanks to its current 6-game recent string and a record of 9-1 vs. the Tigers since "The Prayer at Jordan-Hare" in 2013.

SUATSGeorgia won 27-20

Missouri (-14) by 6.67 over VANDERBILT - NOTE: This pick was an early Thursday morning addition to this list after the line moved favorably from 12 to 13.5 to give the under more room. It closed at -14.
Saturday, 9/30. In Nashville, each team has won 2 of the last 4. In those four games, only the 2017 Missouri win exceeded this week's spread.
Free Pick - Tony Sink - DocSports

SUATSMissouri won 38-21


The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis. Since 2002, the computer's upset picks are 968-813 ATS (.544).).

This Week 1-5 (.167) 4-2 (.667)
Last Week 0-3 (.000) 0-3 (.000)
This Season 6-18 (.250) 11-13 (.458)
Last Season 46-66 (.411) 61-51 (.545)

We have noticed more movement in lines during the week than in years past, likely due to easier access as more states now allow sports wagering. Thus, an upset pick on Monday might NOT be one on Tuesday. Bettors beware of dramatic line movements.

Check back later for possible changes to this list, based on line movement. For instance, the BYU-Cincinnati sportsbook favorite completely flipped from favoring the Cougars by 2.5 to the same number in favor of the visitors. It then moved back to BYU by 1 when the line closed and the UPSET pick was moved to the Easy Pickins Category. Illinois closed at -1 after opening as the underdog, so that game was removed from the Upset list as the computer also favored Illinois.

NC STATE by 0.63 over Louisville (-3.5) - Friday, 9/29. The 'Ville hits the road for an ACC contest at NC State sporting a 4-0 record overall and a 2-0 conference mark to tie Florida State at the stop of the standings. The Cardinals doubled-up Boston College at home last week with a 56-28 win on the heels of BC taking Florida State to the mat in Chestnut Hill. NC State (3-1, 1-0) is coming off a much closer than expected 24-21 road win over Virginia. The Cards lead the ACC in total offense, rushing offense and passing offense, while the Wolfpack are 11th in the conference out of 14 teams. NC State QB Brennan Armstrong, the Virginia transfer, threw 3 picks in the Notre Dame, but just one total in the other 3 games. Louisville running back Jawhar Jordan is averaging 9.56 yards per carry and 119.5 per game with 6 touchdowns on 50 total rushes. These schools have played every season, except the Covid year, since 2014. Louisville has won 3 of the last 5 during the Wolfpack's most competitive streak in the 72-year history of the series which the Cards lead 8-4. So far in 2023, Louisville is 2-2 ATS and NC State is 0-4.

SUATSLouisville won 13-10

Utah by 2.69 over OREGON STATE (-3) - Friday, 9/29. The Beavers (3-1, 0-1) are coming off a 38-35 loss at Washington State in the PAC-2 conference championship game. Oregon State was a 2.5-point road favorite and a 12.48-point computer pick to win. The Beavers' rally from a 21-point deficit fell short when the Cougars recovered the onside kick after scoring on a TD pass from Clemson transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei with 1:12 left in the game. Utah was a 14-7 home winner over UCLA in a battle of defenses that are tied atop the PAC-12. The teams only had a combined total of 462 yards on offense and the Utes, who were 3-point favorites and a 7.56-point computer pick, scored on the opening play of the game on 21-yard pick-6. Utah QB Cam Rising will likely be a game-time decision on seeing his first action of the 2023 season after tearing his ACL in the Rose Bowl. The Utes are next-to-last in the conference in total offense. Utah is 2-1-1 ATS while Oregon State is 2-2.

SUATSOregon State won 21-7

Ball State by 0.62 over WESTERN MICHIGAN (-1.5) - NOTE: By Thursday morning the opening line favoring WMU by 0.5 had increased to 1.5 points.
Saturday, 9/30. The visiting Cardinals (1-3) travel to Kalamazoo for their MAC opener to face the Broncos (1-3, 0-1) in a battle of teams that were projected to finish at the bottom of the conference's west division.

Boise State by 13.81 over MEMPHIS (-3.5) - Saturday, 9/30. This is the first meeting between these two programs that are usually among the better Group of Five football teams. This year, the Broncos were projected to win the Mountain West while the Tigers were forecast to go 6-6, 4-4. However, Boise State lost its first two games by getting whipped 56-19 at Washington, and then dropping an 18-16 decision to UCF on the smurf turf. The Broncos have since rebounded to even their record at 2-2. Memphis is 3-1 on the heels of a 34-27 loss to another group of Tigers at Missouri. Memphis scored in that game with 1:21 left but Missouri recovered the onside kick to secure the win. Boise State is 2-2 ATS while the Tigers are 1-3.

SUATSMemphis won 35-32

Coastal Carolina by 1.14 over GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-6.5) - Saturday, 9/30. Four of the computer's projected upsets involve Sun Belt games. Coastal Carolina opened as a 6.5-point underdog at Georgia Southern while the computer likes the visiting Chanticleers as the favorite by a mere 1.14 points. It's the Sun Belt conference opener for the home standing 3-1 Eagles who are also 3-1 ATS. Coastal is just 2-2 over-all and 0-1 in the Sun Belt after losing its conference opener 30-17 at home to Georgia State last Thursday. Georgia Southern senior quarterback Davis Brinn has been both excellent and erratic as he has 9 TD passes and 7 INT's to go with a 72.9% completion rate and a 7th-best in the nation 1,289 passing yards.
Free Pick - Tony Sink - DocSports

UCONN by 4.68 over Utah State (-4) - NOTE: This game has seen unusual line movement, dipping to 4 before climbing to 6.5, all in favor of Utah State. The line eventually closed as high -6 but generally was found at -4.
Saturday, 9/30. The Huskies are 1-2 ATS at home while the Aggies are 1-1 ATS on the road. UConn was preseason picked to be 2-2 at this point but has dug an 0-4 hole. Utah State is exactly where they were expected to be at 1-3. This is the return game of a home-and-home deal that saw the Aggies win 31-20 last year in Logan. Utah State also won the only other meeting in 2001.

SUATSUtah State won 34-33 (blocked UConn PAT with 0:40 left in game)

Troy by 4.34 over GEORGIA STATE (-1.5) - Saturday, 9/30. The Panthers were projected to be 2-2 at this point, and to finish the season at 4-8. Instead, they've gotten off to a 4-0 start, including a conference-opening 30-17 win at Coastal last week. Troy was expected to be 3-1, but lost 16-14 at home to JMU two weeks ago.
Free Pick - Josh Schonwald - DocSports

South Alabama by 7.62 over JAMES MADISON (-1) - NOTE: As of early Thursday morning, the line had moved favorably for this pick from 2.5 to 3.5. It closed at just -1.
Saturday, 9/30. South Alabama (2-2) turned heads with a 33-6 win at Oklahoma State two weeks ago, only to turn around and fall 34-30 at home to Central Michigan last week. Now the Jaguars open their conference slate by facing FBS upstart James Madison (4-0, 1-0) in Harrisonburg where the Dukes are 6-1 since entering the FBS. JMU is coming off a 45-38 win at Utah State.

SUATSJMU won 31-23

OLE MISS by 2.92 over Louisiana State (-2.5) - Saturday, September 30. The season has already been a disappointment for the Rebels who many thought could get a big win at Alabama, but now they host LSU with a real risk of starting 0-2 in SEC play.
Free Pick - Guy Bruhn - DocSports

SUATSOle Miss won 55-49

SOUTHERN MISS by 9.29 over Texas State (-5.5) - Saturday, 9/30. This is one of four projected upsets involving Sun Belt games this week. Texas State opened as at 7.5, but the line had dropped as low as 5 by Wednesday morning. The Bobcats 2-0 ATS on the road. USM is 1-1 ATS at home.
Free Pick - Tony Sink - DocSports

The computer has called some remarkable upsets in recent history. 2023 upset picks have included South Alabama over Oklahoma State, Sacramento State over Stanford, Jacksonville State winning its first game as a FBS school, and FSU upsetting LSU for the second straight season. 2022 upset picks include FSU's win over LSU, Kentucky's win at Florida, Syracuse over NC State and TCU over Oklahoma State. It went 4-for-4 with its upset picks on November 19, 2022, including unranked Arkansas' win over a ranked Ole Miss.  In 2018, the computer correctly picked Clemson in an upset over Alabama in the national championship game after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida. In 2020, it called Indiana's upsets of Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. That same season, the Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including its picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada.

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