|This Week||3-2 (.600)||3-2 (.600)|
|Last Week||0-0 (.000)||0-0 (.000)|
|This Season||51-14 (.785)||34-31 (.523)|
|Last Season||67-20 (.770)||49-38 (.563)|
Picks in this category were 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS over the last three weeks.
Baylor (-4.5) by 12.95 over Air Force - Thursday, December 22 (Armed Forces Bowl). The computer trend line has Baylor by 8.72. The line opened at 6, but had dropped to 4.5 on Monday (December 19), giving the Bears even more room to exceed the spread. Baylor is 3-0 vs. Falcons, but the last meeting was 1977. They've never met in a bowl game. It was a disappointing year for both teams as both were among the preseason favorites to win their conference title. Instead, the Bears are 6-6 and trying to avoid a losing record, while the Falcons enter at 9-3.
SUATSAir Force won 30-15.
Memphis (-7) by 8.79 over Utah State - Tuesday, December 28 (First Responder Bowl). These teams haven't met since Memphis won 4 of the 7 games played between 1965 -1977. The computer trend line pushes Memphis' margin to 20.41. Utah State's leading rusher Calvin Tyler (1,043 yards, 7 TD's) has opted out for the NFL draft. Memphis had no major reported changes.
SUATSMemphis won 38-10.
East Carolina (-7) by 11.80 over Coastal Carolina - Tuesday, December 27 (Birmingham Bowl). ECU will be without No. 3 receiver tight end Ryan Jones (NFL Draft), while center Avery Jones and safety Shawn Dourseau went to the transfer portal. Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall is delaying transferring until after this game, as will All-Sun Belt center Willie Lampkin. Of course, CCU is without head coach Jamey Chadwell who has left for Liberty. The computer trend line has the Pirates by 11.03.
SUATSEast Carolina won 53-29.
Texas (-3.5) by 10.43 over Washington - Thursday, December 29 (Alamo Bowl) - The computer trend line supports this play with a projected advantage of 8.84 points for the Longhorns. This one was a little hard to choose to go along with because, as everyone knows, Texas has one very signfificant opt-out and that is RB Bijan Robinson (1,580 yards, 18 TD's) who declared for the NFL draft. And the 2nd-leading rusher on the team, Roschon Johnson (554 yards, 5 TD's), has done the same thing. That pair was 4th and 6th on the team in receiving, as well. Additionally, the Longhorns lost backup QB Hudson Card to Purdue in the transfer portal. Meanwhile, the Huskies have NO reported changes in their roster.
SUATSWashington won 27-20.
Ohio (-2.5) by 5.19 over Wyoming - Friday, December 30 (Arizona Bowl). This line had moved from as low as -1 for Ohio to a consensus -2.5 on the morning of the game. The computer trend line widens the Bobcats' advantage to 9.77 points. Both teams have won the last three times either trekked to a bowl game, but this is the first one for Ohio since 2019 while Wyoming has qualified in back-to-back seasons. The concern with this pick is that Ohio will be without the nation's 10th-leading QB in Kurtis Rourke who threw for 3,256 yards with 25 TD's and only 4 INT's. He also added 249 on the ground and another 4 TD's. Rourke suffered a torn ACL in the mid-November win over Ball State. C.J. Harris was 32-of-60 for 393 yards after Rourke was injured, with 1 TD and 1 INT, but added 115 yards rushing and 3 more scores. Wyoming has its own issues, especially at RB which is critical in Craig Bohl's run-heavy attack. Leading rusher Titus Swen was kicked off the team for violating team rules, No. 2 rusher Dawaiian McNeely had a season-ending injury vs. Boise State, and No. 3 rusher D.Q. James is out with a knee injury. The team planned to turn to Joey Braasch until he entered the transfer portal the day after being named the starter. Those joining Braasch in the portal include top WR Joshua Cobbs and solid DE Oluwaseyi Omotosho (7.5 TFL's), among others.
SUATSOhio won 30-27 in OT.
|This Week||2-2 (.500)||3-1 (.750)|
|Last Week||0-0 (.000)||0-0 (.000)|
|This Season||22-17 (.564)||21-18 (.538)|
|Last Season||34-11 (.756)||19-26 (.422)|
There were no picks in this category last week. The week prior, they went 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS.
Marshall (-12.5) by 9.29 over UConn - Monday, December 19 (Myrtle Beach Bowl). The spread for Marshall had increased from 10.5 to 12.5 one hour before kick-off. The computer trend line has The Herd by 7.39. The only meeting these schools was the 2015 St. Petersburg Bowl (now Gasparilla) which was also UConn's last bowl game.
SUATSMarshall won 28-14
Georgia Southern (-4.5) by 1.47 over Buffalo - Tuesday, December 27 (Camellia Bowl). The computer trend line has the Bulls favored by 1.16 to win this first-time matchup outright. Georgia Southern is 3-1 all-time in bowl games. Buffalo is on a 2-bowl winning streak but both of those were under Lance Leipold in 2019 and 2020. Georgia Southern QB Kyle Vantrease was a transfer from Buffalo for the 2022 season.
SUATSBuffalo won 23-21.
Oregon (-13) by 9.34 over North Carolina - Wednesday, December 28 (Holiday Bowl). The computer trend line has the Ducks by 11.37 in the first-ever football game at Petco Park, home of the San Diego Padres. This game features two top quarterbacks, ranging from the experienced Bo Nix at Oregon to the fab freshman Drake Maye at UNC. However, North Carolina's offensive coordinator Phil Longo has moved on to Wisconsin and Maye will be without leading receiver Josh Downs who declared for the NFL draft. The Tar Heel defense will be missing starting defensive backfield players Tony Grimes, Cam’Ron Kelly (2 INT's, 36 tackles) and Storm Duck (INT leader with 3). For Oregon, offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham is now the head coach at Arizona State and the teams' 4th-leading receiver Dont’e Thornton entered the transfer portal. On defense, starting CB Christian Gonzalez and DE D.J. Johnson declared for the draft.
SUATSOregon won 28-27.
Ole Miss (-3.5) by 2.16 over Texas Tech - Wednesday, December 28 (Texas Bowl). The computer trend line has the Red Raiders by 3.05. Texas Tech starting QB Donovan Smith transferred to Houston and FS Reggie Pearson transferred to Oklahoma. Smith's absence leaves senior Tyler Shough as the likely starter. For the Rebels, CB Miles Battle is in the transfer portal and possibly headed to NC State, but was on the field for the bowl game.
SUATSTexas Tech won 42-25.
|This Week||5-6 (.455)||6-5 (.545)|
|Last Week||1-0 (1.000)||1-0 (1.000)|
|This Season||46-66 (.411)||61-51 (.545)|
|Last Season||38-53 (.418)||47-44 (.516)|
The computer has called some remarkable upsets in recent history. 2022 upset picks include FSU's win over LSU, Kentucky's win at Florida, Syracuse over NC State and TCU over Oklahoma State. It went 4-for-4 with its upset picks on November 19, 2022, including unranked Arkansas' win over a ranked Ole Miss. In 2018, the computer correctly picked Clemson in an upset over Alabama in the national championship game after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida. In 2020, it called Indiana's upsets of Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. That same season, the Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including its picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada.
We have noticed more movement in lines during the week than in years past, likely due to easier access as more states now allow sports wagering. Thus, an upset pick on Monday might NOT be one on Tuesday. Bettors beware of dramatic line movements.
Picks in this category over the last 4 weeks were 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS.
Washington State by 1.73 over Fresno State (-5.5) - Saturday, December 17 (L.A. Bowl). The computer trend line widens Wazzu's advantage to 3.73. The computer's preseason projections nailed the Cougars' 7-5 finish. Fresno State was picked to go 10-2 and enters this game at 9-4 after upending Boise State in the MWC Championship game.
SUATSFresno State won 29-6
BYU by 5.85 over over SMU (-4.5) - Saturday, December 17 (New Mexico Bowl). The computer and the oddsmakers have a completely opposite take on this one. The computer's preseason projection of a 7-5 season for the Mustangs was right on the money, while BYU's 7-5 finish was under the 9-3 forecast. Thus, the computer trend line favors first-year head coach Rhett Lashlee's SMU squad by 3.50.
SUATSBYU won 24-23.
Eastern Michigan by 0.92 over San Jose State (-4.5) - Tuesday, December 20 (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). The line at every traditional sportsbook rose to 4.5 in favor of San Jose State just a half hour before kickoff (lower at 'offshore sportsbooks'). The computer trend line has SJSU by 3.01. In the preseason, the computer projected the Spartans to go 7-5 and they enter this game at 7-4 (the game at New Mexico State was canceled). It picked the Eagles to go 8-4 and they did. The Spartans were 0-6 ATS in the last half of the season, and lost 2 of their last 3 outright while ending with a win at home over Hawaii. The Eagles ended the regular season on a 3-game heater and covered the spread on all 3.
SUATSEastern Michigan won 41-27
Western Kentucky by 0.79 over South Alabama (-3.5) - Wednesday, December 21 (New Orleans Bowl). The computer trend line has WKU by 1.85. Keep an eye on line movements as this game opened at 6.5 and went as high as 8 before falling to 3.5 at 7-1/2 hours before the game. The Jaguars won the only previous meeting 31-24 in 2013. South Alabama is 0-2 in bowl games and making its first appearance since 2016. The Hilltoppers are 5-3 in bowls, including wins in 2 of the last 3 years. WKU ended Appalachian State's 6-bowl win streak, and perfect bowl record, last season.
SUATSWestern Kentucky won 44-23
Oklahoma State by 2.69 over Wisconsin (-5) - Tuesday, December 27 (Guaranteed Rate Bowl). The computer trend line flips this pick to Wisconsin winning outright and covering the spread with a 9.51-point advantage. This game in Phoenix has been known as the Copper Bowl, Cactus Bowl, Insight Bowl and a few other iterations. This year's matchup has a 7-5 Cowboys team that was a preseason pick by many to win the Big 12, and a Badgers team that finished exactly where the computer predicted at 6-6. This is the first meeting between these teams. Oklahoma State has the 4th-best bowl game winning percentage (.656) of teams with 20 or more appearances with a record of 21-11. The Cowboys are 5-1 in their last 6 bowls and the Badgers are 7-1 in their last 8. Both have won 2 straight. Oklahoma State opt-outs include DE Brock Martin and players entering the transfer portal feature QB Spencer Sanders and slot Thomas Harper (397 snaps). Gunnar Gundy or Garret Rangel will start at quarterback. For Wisconsin, Luke Fickell will take the reins after the bowl game so interim head coach Jim Leonhard has to deal with opt-out CB Justin Clark (229 snaps), and a large group of outgoing transfers that includes QB Graham Mertz, leaving inexperienced Chase Wolf or Myles Burkett to start at QB. OT Logan Brown (209 snaps) has also entered the portal, along with WR Markus Allen (108 snaps) and CB Semar Melvin (101 snaps).
SUATSWisconsin won 24-17.
Central Florida by 4.74 over Duke (-3) - Wednesday, December 28 (Military Bowl). The Knights were picked by the computer to finish the regular season at 9-3 and did, then lost to Tulane in the American Athletic Conference title game. They will be off to the Big 12 next year. Duke was a surprise under first-year coach Mike Elko as the Blue Devils enter this game at 8-4 after being picked to go 2-10. Every single preseason publication and computer formula had Duke last in the ACC Coastal. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that the computer trend line flips this pick to Duke covering the 3-point spread with a projected winning margin of a whopping 10.17 points. Duke also has reported to changes in its roster while UCF will be without such notable starters as CB Davonte Brown, LB Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste (3rd-leading tackler), backup QB2 Mikey Keene and leading receiver WR Ryan O’Keefe. Starting QB QB John Rhys Plumlee seems doubtful, which would leave UCF with third-string QB Thomas Castellanos.
SUATSDuke won 30-13.
Pittsburgh by 7.26 over UCLA (-9) - Friday, December 30 (Sun Bowl). The line had jumped from -5.5 to -8.5 on game day morning and closed as high as -9. The computer trend line flips this pick to UCLA by 4.96. The line at most sportsbooks had increased from 3.5 to 5.5 in favor of UCLA by Tuesday, December 27. Pitt has a slew of opt-outs including RB Israel Abanikanda, a handful of offensive linemen and several solid defenders, not to mention QB Kedon Slovis who entered the transfer portal and is now at BYU. Abanikanda and Slovis accounted for roughly 80% of Pitt's offensive yardage and 65% of its scoring. Slovis was a bit of a bust for the Panthers, but Abanikanda was an absolute beast who was 7th nationally in rushing yards and first in rushing TD's. UCLA has no reported opt-outs or transfer portal losses and, as of Wednesday, neither QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson or RB Zach Charbonnet had been ruled out.
SUATSPitt won 37-35.
Tennessee by 2.20 over Clemson (-4) - Friday, December 30 (Orange Bowl). The spread closed between -3.5 and -4 after rising as high as -6. The computer trend line surprisingly widens Tennessee's advantage to 11.54. Tennessee will be without WR's Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt after both declared for the NFL draft and QB Hendon Hooker is done for the season with a knee injury. Tennessee's offensive coordinator Alex Golesh has moved on to USF as head coach. Clemson will be without DE Myles Murphy and LB Trenton Simpson (NFL Draft), as well transfer portal players QB DJ Uiagalelei (Oregon State) and LB LaVonta Bentley (Colorado), along with several others who had lesser, or no, role.
SUATSTennessee won 31-14.
Ohio State by 2.99 over Georgia (-6) - Saturday, December 31 (Peach Bowl). The computer trend line flips this pick to Georgia by 1.56. Both teams will have their usual players on the field so the biggest number here might be Kirby Smart's 6-2 ATS record in postseason games (SEC Championship, playoffs). The game features Ohio State's 7th-ranked offense against Georgia's 8th-ranked defense. In the other direction, the Bulldogs rank 8th on offense while the Buckeyes rank 12th on defense.
SUATSGeorgia won 42-41.
Purdue by 0.42 over Louisiana State (‐14.5) - Monday, January 2 (Citrus Bowl). The computer trend line flips this pick to LSU by a massive 12.13. Purdue's lengthy list of opt-outs is led by QB Aidan O'Connell (3,490 yards, 22 TD's, 13 INT's) and includes WR Charlie Jones who was good for 1,361 yards and 12 of O'Connell's 22 TD passes. LSU will be without No. 3 receiver Jaray Jenkins and projected 1st-round NFL draft EDGE defender BJ Ojulari. LSU's 2nd-leading receiver Kayshon Boutte is also out after the projected first-round pick declared for the draft on December 28.
SUATSLSU won 63-7.
Utah by 0.24 over Penn State (-2.5) - Monday, January 2 (Rose Bowl). The line moved to Penn State's favor Monday afternoon and closed between 1 and 2-1/2 in favor of the Nittany Lions. Because of that line movement, it became necessary to add this to the upset picks about 3-and-a-half hours before kick-off. The computer has Utah by 0.24, but the computer trend line flips the pick to Penn State by a whopping 10.25. The computer trend line takes what would have been the opening week spread had these teams originally been scheduled to play, and compares it to the current computer projection. Penn State's power rating has increased over 10 points since the season began while Utah's is only fractionally below where it started.
SUATSPenn State won 35-21.
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