About the Data

Line in parenthesis is the opening line from Doc's College Football Picks. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The home team is capitalized.


The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis. Since 2002, the computer's upset picks are 859-714 ATS (.549).

This Week 1-5 (.167) 3-3 (.500)
Last Week 5-2 (.714) 5-2 (.714)
This Season 10-16 (.385) 13-13 (.500)
Last Season 33-64 (.340) 48-49 (.495)

The computer's opposite picks were 5-2 SU and ATS last week, including picks of Oklahoma State winning at Boise State, Memphis at home over Mississippi State, and Minnesota prevailing at Colorado. The computer's opposite picks were 48-49 ATS in 2020 after a 38-38 campaign in 2019 and an amazing 62-27 season in 2018. A .500 record over each of the last two seasons is still rather incredible for picking outright upsets. The top plays in 2020 include the computer's outright upset picks of Indiana over Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. Other impressive 2020 picks include Texas A&M beating Florida as a 7-point underdog, Memphis ending a 13-game losing streak to UCF, and Florida State under the spread against North Carolina. The Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including its picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada. Last year, the computer called both UCF upset losses to Pitt and Cincinnati, the first of which ended a 25-game winning streak, and the latter that ended a 19-game conference winning streak. It also pegged Virginia's upset of Virginia Tech that snapped a 15-game losing streak in the rivalry for the Cavaliers. In 2018, the computer correctly picked Clemson in an upset over Alabama in the national championship game after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida.

By request, here are the SU and ATS records for 2016-2018. For 2016, they were 33-52 SU, 42-43 ATS. In 2017, they were 51-54 SU, 61-44 ATS. In 2018, they were 46-43 SU, 62-27 ATS.

There are 6 computer upset picks this weekend.

Middle Tennessee State by 2.45 over CHARLOTTE (-3) - Friday, September 24. MTSU (1-2) heads to Charlotte (2-1) where the 49ers are 2-0 this season and 6-1 in their last 7. Charlotte downed the Blue Raiders 34-20 last year for the first time in 5 tries.

SUATSCharlotte won 42-39

BALL STATE by 2.06 over Toledo (-3.5) - Saturday, September 25. Ball State has won 2 straight in the series after dropping the previous 5. Both teams are 1-2 and this is the conference opener for each team, Overall, the Rockets lead the series 24-21-1.

SUATSToledo won 22-12.

Boston College by 7.32 over MISSOURI (-2) - Saturday, September 25. On thing we know, for sure, is that the ACC has been largely hapless so far this season versus competition from other Power 5 conferences. Will this game be a breakthrough win for the ACC? It's the first meeting between these two programs.

SUATSBoston College won 41-34.

FLORIDA STATE by 3.81 over Louisville (-2.5) - Saturday, September 25. FSU is coming off a 35-14 loss at Wake Forest to start 0-3 for the first time since Bobby Bowden's inaugural year as head coach in 1976. They haven't been 0-4 since 1974. It's tough, if not insane, to count on the 'Noles right now. Louisville is coming off an incredible 42-35 win at home over UCF last Friday night. The teams have split the last 8 meetings with the Cards winning last year 48-16 at home.

SUATSLouisville won 31-23.

Nebraska by 1.11 over MICHIGAN STATE (-4) - Saturday, September 25. The 'Huskers were able to hang with Oklahoma before losing 23-16, so maybe there's hope for this upset pick. Michigan State is coming off a 38-17 road domination of Miami. Nebraska has won 9-of-11 vs. MSU, and the last two in-a-row.

SUATSMichigan State won 23-20 in OT.

STANFORD by 3.37 over Ucla - Saturday, September 25. UCLA is coming off a 40-37 loss to Fresno State while Stanford was downing Vanderbilt 41-23. Of course, everyone knows the Cardinal upset USC on the road two weeks ago. Stanford has taken 12 of the last 13 meetings with the Bruins.

SUATSUCLA won 35-24.

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Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002, our picks in this category are 1,276-436 (.745) SU, 860-852 (.502) ATS.

This Week 3-0 (1.000) 1-2 (.333)
Last Week 4-0 (1.000) 4-0 (1.000)
This Season 12-3 (.800) 9-6 (.600)
Last Season 38-15 (.717) 26-27 (.491)

The computer was 4-0 SU and ATS in this category last week by taking Stanford, USC, Texas and Texas A&M to all cover.

APPALACHIAN STATE (-7) by 13.22 over Marshall - Thursday, September 23 - The Herd are 2-1 after a 42-38 loss at home to East Carolina when they were favored by 9.5 in the sportsbooks, but just 5.39 by the computer. Appalachian State is also 2-1 with a 33-19 win over East Carolina on Sept. 2 and the lone loss by 2 points at Miami. Marshall defeated Appalachian State 17-7 a year ago in Huntington in the first meeting since 2002.

SUATSAppalachian State won 31-30.

IOWA (-22) by 33.30 over Colorado State - Saturday, September 25. The only issue we see Iowa (3-0) having is manufacturing enough offense to get a 22-point separation when the Hawkeyes rank 119th in total offense out of 130 FBS teams. The Rams (1-2) got a somewhat surprising win at Toledo this past Saturday, but have lost to South Dakota State by 19 and Vanderbilt by a  field goal. This is the first meeting between these two teams.

SUATSIowa won 24-14.

UTEP (-2) by 5 over New Mexico - Saturday, September 25. These teams will be meeting for the 79th time, but the first since 2014. New Mexico leads the all-time series between these rivals of the old WAC conference 43-32-3. The two points at home is less than the traditional home advantage number of 3 for the Miners who look to get back on track after a week's rest following their 54-13 defeat at Boise State. The Lobos are coming off a 34-0 loss at Texas A&M.

SUATSUTEP won 20-13.

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002, our picks in this category are 1,010-262 (.794) SU, 683-589 (.537) ATS.

This Week 4-2 (.667) 4-2 (.667)
Last Week 3-1 (.750) 1-3 (.250)
This Season 12-3 (.800) 7-8 (.467)
Last Season 32-14 (.696) 31-15 (.674)

Our picks in this category over the last two seasons combined are 76-32 SU, 67-41 ATS.

It hasn't fared so well this season, but it's not our fault when the teams don't cooperate with what SHOULD happen.

Liberty (-7) by 0.69 over SYRACUSE - Friday, September 24. So far, Liberty has faced Campbell, Troy and Old Dominion while Syracuse has faced Ohio, Rutgers and Albany. The Flames are 3-0, and the Orange are 2-1. We're a little shy to 'bet' on an ACC team but Syracuse on a Friday night at home should have enough of a personnel advantage to hang close, if not win. Liberty QB Malik WIllis has 7 TD's and no picks with 200 yards per game passing, but also has 75 yards per game rushing with 4 more scores. The 'Cuse 'D' ranks 4th nationally.

SUATSSyracuse won 24-21.

Clemson (-12) by 0.74 N.C. STATE - Saturday, September 25. We were taken back a bit  by the 12-point line at the opener and it has since shrunk to 10. The Tigers' offense ranks 114th nationally and DJ Uiagalelei ranks 88th in passing yards per game (1 TD, 2 INTs) and nowhere among the Top 100 in Passer Rating. NC State ranks 16th in total defense and 30th on offense. The Clemson defense ranks 19th. The Tigers have taken 8 straight from The Pack and 15 of the last 16, to build a 59-28-1 lead in the all-time series that dates back to 1899.

SUATSN.C. State won 27-21 in 2 OT.

COASTAL CAROLINA (-35) by 24.36 over Massachusetts - Saturday, September 25. UMass didn't lose to Boston College or Eastern Michigan by more than 17 this year, and 'only' lost by 34 to Coastal last year in Amherst. The Minutemen offense scored a total of 12 points in the four games it played last fall, but has already tallied 63 points in 3 games this year.

SUATSCoastal Carolina 53-3.

OKLAHOMA STATE (-8.5) by 5.33 over Kansas State - Saturday, September 25. The line had dropped to 6 by Tuesday night after opening at 8.5  The computer has the game easily trending for KSU to cover as the Cowboys were 10.37-point preseason favorites, but now only receive a 5.33-point advantage. Head coach Chris Klieman, in his third season after leaving North Dakota State, has Kansas State headed in the right direction and, even with Skylar Thompson out at QB due to injury, the Wildcats were outright underdog winners vs. Nevada last week. The teams have split the last four meetings and Klieman is 0-2 vs. the Cowboys. OSU leads the series 41-26.

SUATSOklahoma State won 31-20.

MICHIGAN (-19) by 10.21 over Rutgers - Saturday, September 25. Rutgers has covered in its last 6 road games while Michigan has failed to cover in its last 5 conference games.

SUATSMichigan won 20-13.

OKLAHOMA (-15.5) by 11.42 over West Virginia - Saturday, September 25. West Virginia is 0-8 vs. Oklahoma since joining the Big 12 in 2012 and has been outscored by an average 47.6 to 30.2. However,  Oklahoma's two wins over FBS schools his season have been by 7 and 5 points, respectively, vs. Tulane and Nebraska. The 'Eers have the talent, and the defense, to keep this one close. WVU should be feeling good about itself after defeating Virginia Tech this past weekend.

SUATSOklahoma won 16-13.

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