Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2023), our picks in this category are 1,445-484 (.749) SU, 945-926 (.505) ATS.

	SU	ATS
This Week	4-2 (.667)	2-4 (.333)
Last Week	2-2 (.500)	1-3 (.250)
This Season	6-4 (.600)	3-7 (.300)
Last Season	48-10 (.828)	33-25 (.569)

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

NORTHWESTERN (-2) by 17.68 over Duke - Saturday, September 7. This game should provide the Wildcats with the perfect opportunity to snap a 5-game losing streak to the Blue Devils. Duke is in its first season under Manny Diaz after Mike Elko cashed in on his success in Durham to make a lot more money at Texas A&M. Head Coach David Braun was 5-5 as the interim head coach, and since has gone 4-0 after having the interim tag removed. He replaced Pat Fitzgerald who was 1-11 in his final season, but was set to return in 2023 until he was abruptly fired on July 10 of that year after details surfaced about multiple allegations of racism and sexually abusive hazing. Braun gets 15 starters back, including the bulk of what should be a solid defensive unit. Duke only returns 10 starters with 5 on each side of the ball and most notably lost QB Riley Leonard to Notre Dame, the team that messed up his 2023 season at Duke when he was injured late in the September 30 loss. His backup, Grayson Loftis, lost the battle to return as the starting QB to incoming Texas transfer Maliik Murphy who was 2-0 as the starter for the Longhorns last year when Quinn Ewers had to sit out the BYU and Kansas State games in mid-season. Northwestern has senior transfer Mike Wright at QB who backed up Will Rogers at Mississippi State a year ago but saw a lot of action. He had several starts at Vandy in 2022.

SUATSDuke won 26-20 in 2 OT

RUTGERS (-22.5) by 33.61 over Akron - Saturday, September 7. Ohio State fell just shy of covering the 48.5 last week, winning 52-6 as the Buckeyes only rushed for 170. Rutgers ran for over 300 vs Howard, led by Kyle Monangai's 166 and a TD on just 19 carries. This is just the second-ever meeting between these teams, and the last time they met was in 1990 when the Scarlet Knights prevailed 20-17. Akron is 1-25 all-time vs the Big Ten with a 39-34 win over Northwestern in 2018. However, Rutgers has lost 3 of its last 4 vs MAC schools with the last occurrence in 2018. Greg Schiano's only loss to a MAC school came in the second year of his first stint as Rutgers HC when Buffalo scored a 34-11 victory in 2002. Rutgers was just 1-11 that year.

Get $60 in Free Premium Member Only picks from Doc’s Sports – A recognized leader and trusted name in sports handicapping since 1971.

SUATSRutgers won 49-17

NORTH CAROLINA (-21.5) by 29.96 over Charlotte - Saturday, September 7. North Carolina QB Max Johnson was lost for the season with a broken leg in the opener vs. Minnesota. Fortunately for Mack Brown, he can turn to Conner Harrell who backed up Drake Maye and was recruited because he was a two-time state champion at the highest high school level in Alabama. Unless he makes a ton of mistakes, the Tar Heels should be able to control the ball with Omarion Hampton at running back. All he did was rush for 1,504 yards and 15 scores a year ago, and he opened this season with 129 at the Golden Gophers. UNC also has 7 of its top 8 receivers from a year ago to make life a little bit easier, as well. On top of that, the 49ers had a bottom defense in the American Athletic Conference a year ago and ranked 104 in the nation.

SUATSUNC won 38-20

OKLAHOMA (-27.5) by 38.04 over Houston - On Friday, this line had gotten a little easier for this pick at 27.5 after opening at 28.5.

Saturday, September 7. Houston opened with a crushing 27-7 home loss to UNLV. Oklahoma opened with a 51-3 thumping of Temple. No telling what the score will be, but this has something like "a lot to a little" written all over it.

SUATSOklahoma won 16-12

IOWA (-2.5) by 13.27 over Iowa State - Saturday, September 7. It's Cy-Hawk week in the heartland and the state rivals cap-off the week with their battle for the Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Trophy. Here are the two most important questions to answer. 1) Can Iowa continue the offensive momentum it got from a 34-point burst in the second half of Saturday's 40-0 win over Illinois State? 2) Will Iowa allow Iowa State to score more than a field goal? As famously as Iowa couldn't score points in 2023, the defense famously didn't allow much. Ten teams were held to 14 or fewer points, including 13 to the Cyclones in a 20-13 win for the Hawkeyes. Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz was suspended from the opener, as was wide receivers coach Jon Budmayr. The one-game suspension for each is related to the NCAA violation of improper recrutiing of starting quarterback Cade McNamara in 2022.

SUATSIowa State won 20-19

OLE MISS (-40.50) by 53.62 over Middle Tennessee - Saturday, September 7. A lot of SEC teams scored a lot of points and racked up chunks of yards on opening weekend. No one scored more points (76) or  gained more yards (772) than Lane Kiffin's crew in its 76-0 win versus a Furman team that's ranked 16th in the Coaches' FCS Poll. It was 52-0 at the half and 73-0 after 3 quarters. MTSU surrendered 341 yards and 25 points to FCS member Tennessee Tech in a 32-25 win for the Blue Raiders. Tennessee Tech is projected to go 1-11 this year.

SUATSOle Miss won 52-3

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2023), our picks in this category are 1,091-297 (.791) SU, 736-652 (.530) ATS.

	SU	ATS
This Week	1-0 (1.000)	0-1 (.000)
Last Week	1-0 (1.000)	1-0 (1.000)
This Season	2-0 (1.000)	1-1 (.500)
Last Season	22-7 (.759)	12-17 (.414)

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

Clemson (-17) by 12.11 over Appalachian State - Saturday, September 7. App State has QB Joey Aguilar back after a 2023 season in which he passed for 3,757 yards and 33 TD with 10 INT. He threw for 326 and 2 TD's in a 38-10 tune-up opening win against FCS member ETSU. The Mountaineers also return 711-yard rusher Kanye Roberts and the top four receivers. Clemson only managed 3 points in the loss to Georgia (34-3) in Atlanta. It might be too much to put the Tigers on an outright upset alert, but App State has the ammo to hang around. Clemson is 5-0 all-time vs the Boone Boys and four were routs by at least 31 points, but these teams haven't met since 2015.

SUATSClemson won 66-20

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis. Since 2002 (thru 2023), the computer's upset picks are 1,027-864 ATS (.543).

	SU	ATS
This Week	3-3 (.500)	4-2 (.667)
Last Week	4-2 (.667)	5-1 (.833)
This Season	7-5 (.583)	9-3 (.750)
Last Season	49-61 (.445)	61-51 (.545)

We have noticed more movement in lines during the week than in years past, likely due to easier access as more states now allow sports wagering. Thus, an upset pick on Monday might NOT be one on Tuesday. Bettors beware of dramatic line movements.

Check back later for possible changes to this list, based on line movement.

Mississippi State by 3.20 over ARIZONA STATE (-5.5) - Saturday, September 7. Last year, the Bulldogs handed Arizona one of its only three losses for the season with a 31-24 overtime win in Starkville. They also had a resounding 39-17 win over the 'Cats at their place the previous year. Those are the only two meetings that MSU has had with either of the two FBS schools from the Grand Canyon State. This year, they visit the 'other' one. Arizona State was just 3-9 a year ago while Mississippi State's fell mostly silent during a 5-7 year that saw 4 losses in the last 5 games. This year doesn't look much better, according to projections from the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com, where the Bulldogs are picked to go 3-9 over-all and 0-8 in the SEC. The forecast of a winless season for ASU has already been proven wrong with a 48-7 thrashing of Wyoming on Saturday.

Get picks from a Doc's Sports expert and learn how to get $60 in PREMIUM member picks with PROFIT GUARANTEE.

SUATSArizona State won 30-23

Army West Point by 8.95 over FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-3) - Saturday, September 7. With its 42-7 win at home over FCS member Lehigh, Army West Point has a 5-game winning streak that ties for 3rd-best in the nation. FAU ended last season on a 3-game home losing streak, and dropped 4-of-5 home games after beating FCS member Monmouth in the 2023 opener.  This will be Army's first game as a new member of the AAC.

SUATSArmy won 24-7

OLD DOMINION by 3.70 over East Carolina (-2.50) - As of Friday afternoon, this game had flipped to be in agreement with the computer and was no longer an upset play with ODU favored by anywhere from 1 to 2.5. It never flipped back. ECU won 20-14.

Saturday, September 7. ODU will look for its first win in the series (0-4). The Pirates are 1-5 in their last 6 road games. The over/under trends are interesting with these two teams as the total has gone under in 8 of ECU's last 10 games, and in 7 of ODU's last 9 home games. On Wednesday, the O/U was 55.5.

TULANE by 2.16 over Kansas State (-9.50) - Saturday, September 7. Willie Fritz left to take over the program at Houston after propelling the Green Wave to a combined record of 23-4 in his last two seasons after a very nondescript first six years at the school when he compiled a 31-43 mark. Jon Sumrall moved over from Troy to take the reins at Tulane after just two seasons with the Trojans where he also went 23-4. By everyone's assessment, Tulane did not get hurt in the switch. It was a bit surprising when redshirt freshman Darian Mensah was named the week 1 starter over Oregon transfer Ty Thompson. Meanwhile, Kansas State lost QB Will Howard to the transfer portal and Ohio State. That job now goes to Avery Johnson who pushed Howard for the starting job last year. Tulane not only saw the Chris Pratt era end at QB, but also lost its top four receivers. But Kansas State only has four starters back on offense where DJ Giddens may have to literally carry the load. Last year, he ran for 1,265 yards and 10 TD's and caught 29 balls for 323 yards and 3 scores. Tulane RB Makhi Hughes returns after a 1,398-yard, 7 touchdown season a year ago. The Congrove Computer Rankings have Tulane projected to win the AAC, and Kansas State picked 4th in the Big 12.

SUATSKansas State won 34-27

OHIO by 3.58 over South Alabama (-2.50) - Saturday, September 7. South Alabama lost its head coach when Kane Wommack resigned to become the DC at Alabama under Kalen DeBoer, so they promoted OC and QB coach Major Applewhite, the former Texas QB who still holds multiple records at that school. The Jaguars are projected to 507 in the Sun Belt while Ohio gets a 7-5 forecast in the MAC. This is the first meeting between the two schools.

SUATSOhio 27, South Alabama 20

Utsa by 1.41 over TEXAS STATE (-1.5) - Saturday, September 7. The young I-35 rivalry began in 2012 and has only been staged five times with UTSA winning every game, including a 20-13 result last year at the Alamodome. The Texas State San Marcos campus is roughly two-thirds of the way to Austin from San Antonio (53 miles). The Roadrunners are picked to once again battle for the American Conference title while the Bobcats are the computer's preseason pick to capture the west division of the Sun Belt.

SUATSTexas State won 49-10

The computer has called some remarkable upsets in recent history. Already in 2024, the computer nailed the upsets of Notre Dame over Texas A&M and USC over LSU on opening weekend. 2023 upset picks included South Alabama over Oklahoma State, Sacramento State over Stanford, Jacksonville State winning its first game as a FBS school, and FSU upsetting LSU for the second straight season. in week 12 of 2023, it picked UCF (4-5) over Oklahoma State (7-2) during a week in which the computer went 7-3 on outright uspet winners and 8-2 against the spread. 2022 upset picks include FSU's win over LSU, Kentucky's win at Florida, Syracuse over NC State and TCU over Oklahoma State. It went 4-for-4 with its upset picks on November 19, 2022, including unranked Arkansas' win over a ranked Ole Miss.  In 2018, the computer correctly picked Clemson in an upset over Alabama in the national championship game after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida. In 2020, it called Indiana's upsets of Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. That same season, the Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including its picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada.

Georgia Southern by 10.57 over NEVADA (-1.5) - Saturday, September 7. This was a very late addition to the Upset Picks after the line flipped at host sportsbooks from favoring the Eagles by 2.5

SUATSGeorgia Southern won 20-17