About the Data

Line in parenthesis is the opening line from Doc's College Football Picks. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The home team is capitalized.

Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002, our picks in this category are 1,346-460 (.745) SU, 911-895 (.504) ATS.

SU ATS
This Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
Last Week 4-1 (.800) 3-2 (.600)
This Season 46-12 (.793) 29-29 (.500)
Last Season 67-20 (.770) 49-38 (.563)

Picks in this category were 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS over the last two weeks.

Michigan (-16.5) by 17.78 over Purdue at Indianapolis - Saturday, December 3. The line opened at -16, but was mostly found at -16.5 early Friday afternoon, and was as high as -17. Purdue QB Aidan O'Connell who left after the win over Indiana to be with his family in the wake of his older brother's death, but he is still expected to play. Michigan will be without RB Blake Corum (1,463 yards, 18 TD's) after it was revealed on Thursday that he needs knee surgery and could possibly be unavailable for the playoffs should Michigan make the cut. Corum only had 2 carries v.s Ohio State, but Donovan Edwards ran for 217 and 2 TD's (75, 85) in the 45-23 Michigan win. The computer trend line has the Wolverines by 22.89.
Matchup

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002, our picks in this category are 1,047-273 (.793) SU, 703- 617 (.533) ATS.

SU ATS
This Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
Last Week 2-0 (1.000) 1-1 (.500)
This Season 19-16 (.543) 18-17 (.514)
Last Season 34-11 (.756) 19-26 (.422)

There are no picks in this category this week.

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis. Since 2002, the computer's upset picks are 907-762 ATS (.543).

SU ATS
This Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
Last Week 4-3 (.571) 4-3 (.571)
This Season 39-60 (.394) 53-46 (.535)
Last Season 38-53 (.418) 47-44 (.516)

The computer has called some remarkable upsets in recent history. 2022 upset picks include FSU's win over LSU, Kentucky's win at Florida, Syracuse over NC State and TCU over Oklahoma State. It went 4-for-4 with its upset picks on November 19, 2022, including unranked Arkansas' win over a ranked Ole Miss.  In 2018, the computer correctly picked Clemson in an upset over Alabama in the national championship game after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida. In 2020, it called Indiana's upsets of Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. That same season, the Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including its picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada.    

We have noticed more movement in lines during the week than in years past, likely due to easier access as more states now allow sports wagering. Thus, an upset pick on Monday might NOT be one on Tuesday. Bettors beware of dramatic line movements.

Picks in this category were 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS over the last two weeks.

Utah by 10.48 over Southern California (-2.5) at Las Vegas - Friday, December 2. The computer trend line in this game flips the picks to USC by 4.24. The teams met in Salt Lake City on October 15 with Utah winning 43-42 on a gutsy 2-point conversion call with 48 seconds to play in regulation. Utah was a 16.97-point computer favorite in that game. We humans are inclined to go with USC to win and cover the spread which favored the Trojans by 2.5 on Friday morning after opening at -3.
Matchup

Kansas State by 0.19 over Texas Christian (-2) at Arlington - Saturday, December 3. After opening at -2.5, most sportsbooks had this game at -2 early Friday. The computer trend line has TCU by 3.57 to win and cover. TCU won the regular season matchup 38-28 at home on October 22 by scoring the last 28 points of the game.
Matchup

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