Week 10 Picks and Preview: 36 Games Have Single-Digit Computer Margins

October 24, 2018 by CFP Staff

The college football week is looking pretty tricky to pick with a lot of games that can easily be labeled as toss-ups. There are 36 games with single-digit computer margins, and 29 of those are under 7 points.

The Congrove Computer Rankings' road favorites include Miami by 2.28 at Boston College, Duke by 6.54 at Pittsburgh, and Army by 2.24 at Eastern Michigan. Miami is coming off a bye week after a bad loss at Virginia, Duke is coming off a bad home loss to Virginia, and Army is fresh from a narrow escape of Miami (Ohio).

The home choices include Penn State by 10.04 over Iowa, Missouri by 5.10 over Kentucky, Michigan State by 5 over Purdue, Mississippi State by 4.64 over Texas A&M, Northwestern by 1.31 over Wisconsin, Oklahoma State by 1.04 over Texas, and Stanford by 9.65 over Washington State.

Michigan State was listless on offense in the loss to Michigan, Purdue looked like world-beaters in its romp over Ohio State, Northwestern is as quizzical a program as their could be, Texas has been hotter than a firecracker on the fourth of July while the Cowpokes have been cold as ice, and nothing has really indicated that Stanford is that good.

Have fun. It could be a wild ride.

It's already a strange week, not so much because it began on Tuesday (Troy won 38-17 at South Alabama), but rather because nearly 20% of the schedule will be completed before Saturday arrives. Five games on Thursday include Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech, and Baylor at West Virginia. Another five games are slated for Friday, featuring the Miami-BC affair as well as Utah at UCLA.

In all, 56 games will take place.

Standout games this week include the rivalry matchups of Florida-Georgia in Jacksonville, Note Dame-Navy in San Diego, and Clemson at Florida State. While the UGA-UF game could be close (Georgia is favored by 9.26), the other two are expected to be blowouts with the Irish favored by 38.87 over the Midshipmen and the Tigers projected to whip the Seminoles by 17.80.

See the Vegas opening odds and the Computer Picks for every game involving a FBS team.

FBS vs. FCS

Nebraska is the lone FBS team facing a FCS opponent. The Cornhuskers scheduled Bethune-Cookman for this week after their season-opener versus Akron was canceled due to a prolonged weather interruption. FBS teams are 94-7 (.931) vs. the FCS this season, and 1,313-124 (.914) since 2003.

Here are all of the FCS victories over FBS teams, so far, in 2018:

August 30: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

UCF - Won 20 straight overall (FBS longest), Won 13 straight conference games including AAC title last year (FBS longest). Idle this week.

Alabama - Won 23 straight home games (FBS longest). Idle this week.

Oklahoma - Won 18 straight true road games (FBS longest). Hosts Kansas State on Saturday.

UTEP - Lost 19 straight overall (FBS longest). Hosts UAB on Saturday.

Kansas - Lost 14 straight conference games (FBS longest). Hosts TCU on Saturday.

Oregon State - Lost 22 straight road games (FBS longest). Visits Colorado on Saturday.