Thursday-Friday Recap: Virginia Tech Embarrased, Maryland Destroyed, Computer Goes 5-0 SU and ATS

September 28, 2019 by Dave Congrove

The college football week kicked off on Thursday with a lone game pitting Navy at Memphis. As the computer predicted (Congrove Computer Rankings at collegefootballpoll.com), Memphis prevailed 35-23 to beat the 10.5-point Vegas spread. In fact, the computer was 5-0 outright and against the spread for the Thursday/Friday slate.

The computer called the upsets of Duke over Virginia Tech and Arizona State over Cal, both of which came in away games.

Speaking of Virginia Tech, the 45-10 loss to Duke is the worst home whipping incurred by the Hokies since 1974. Head coach Justin Fuente must be firmly on the hot seat as his on-field results have been atrocious over the last couple of seasons. He is just 8-9 overall since the start of the 2018 season, 10-12 since the beginning of November in 2017, and 1-6 in his last 7 ACC games. The problems this year can seemingly be traced to the fact that 13 players exited the program via the transfer portal, and the roster is now populated by 62 freshmen, 25 sophomores and only 5 seniors. Many supporters are beginning to clamor for a changing of the guard and it isn't difficult to see a reasonable pathway. Ideally, Bud Foster would fill the interim head coach duties while the school recruits someone with ties to the university to restore the luster. The primary candidates would seem to be Todd Grantham and Shane Beamer, both of whom played for Virginia Tech and served as assistants under Frank Beamer. Grantham is a well-traveled, successful defensive coordinator who is now at Florida, while Frank Beamer's son is in his first year as the assistant head coach at Oklahoma and has a history of being a top recruiter.

There is, however, one sticking point to the consideration of firing Fuente - the buyout numbers are huge. It woud cost the school $15 million to dismiss him this year without cause, though that figure can reportedly be amortized over a 5-year period..

Meanwhile, Maryland fans are left with their heads spinning after the 59-0 beatdown at home that was exacted by Penn State. Enthusiasm was running rampant after the Terrapins won their first two games by a cumulative score of 142-20, but they've lost the last two games by a count of 79-17. It shouldn't be that surprising that the first two victories were smoke and mirrors since head coach Mike Locksley was a puzzling hire given his (now) 5-33 record as a head coach or interim head coach.

The top games remaining to be played this weekend - Ohio State at Nebraska, Mississippi State at Auburn, Virginia at Notre Dame, and Iowa State at Baylor.

Georgia, LSU, Oregon and Texas are among the 24 teams on sabbatical this week.

The schedule also has a good many duds with top teams playing pitifully out-manned opponents. Alabama (-28.43) hosts Ole Miss, Clemson (-28.87) visits UNC, Florida (-54.76) welcomes FCS member Towson, Iowa (-26.46) hosts MTSU, Michigan (-33.98) welcomes Rutgers, and Oklahoma (-24.64) hosts Texas Tech.

Not nearly as bad is Wisconsin (-8.91) entertaining Northwestern.

Undefeated

23 teams are undefeated with 12 of those at 4-0, 10 at 3-0, and 1 (Navy) at 2-0.

Only 1 game this week matches undefeated teams against each other and that's Friday night's AAC tussle that sends Navy to Memphis.

However, 5 other teams are predicted to draw their first loss this week.

  • UAB (+2.75) at Western Kentucky
  • Baylor (+4.55) vs. Iowa State
  • California (+1.25) vs. Arizona State
  • Kansas State (+3.29) at Oklahoma State
  • Virginia (+17.18) at Notre Dame

Winless

5 teams have yet to pocket a win - Akron, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, Rice and Vanderbilt.

That number is sure to be reduced to at least 4 as Akron visits UMass in the "Bottom 10 Game of the Week". Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is favored at home over Northern Illinois.

FBS vs. FCS

114 games this year pit FBS teams against FCS schools. That's two more than a season ago when FBS teams won 105 of 112 games.

There are just 4 such games this week, all of which are on Saturday, as Florida hosts Towson, Pittsburgh entertains Delaware, Syracuse welcomes Holy Cross, and Texas State hosts Nicholls State.

FBS teams were 9-0 a week ago and are 94-3 (.969) for the season. Since we began tracking this in 2003, the FBS schools are 1,418-127 (.918).

FCS victories over FBS teams in 2019:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)

FCS victories over FBS teams in 2018
August 29: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

CLEMSON - Won 19 straight over-all (FBS longest). Won 21 straight regular season games.
Last: 52-10 home win over Charlotte on September 21.
Next: at North Carolina on September 28.

UCF - Won 18 straight conference games including consecutive AAC titles (FBS longest). Had won 25 straight regular season games (was FBS longest). UCF had won 27 straight if you include conference championship games and exclude bowl games.
Last: 35-34 loss at Pittsburgh on September 21.
Next: Hosts Connecticut on September 28.

ALABAMA - Won 28 straight home games (FBS longest).
Last: 49-7 home win over Southern Miss on September 21.
Next: Hosts Ole Miss on September 28.

OKLAHOMA - Won 21 straight true road games (FBS longest).
Last:: 48-14 win at UCLA on September 14.
Next: Hosts Texas Tech on September 28.

RUTGERS - Lost 13 straight conference games (FBS longest).
Last: 30-16 home loss to Boston College on September 21.
Next: at Michigan on September 28.

AKRON - Lost 9 straight overall (FBS longest).
Last: 35-7 home loss to Troy on September 21.
Next: at Massachusetts on September 28.

CONNECTICUT - Lost 18 straight vs. FBS teams (FBS longest).
Last: 38-3 loss at Indiana on September 21.
Next: at UCF on September 28.

RICE - Lost 13 straight road games (tied FBS longest).
Last: 21-13 home loss to Baylor on September 21.
Next: Hosts Louisiana Tech on September 28.