Weekly Preview: 55-Game Slate Starts Thursday

October 16, 2018 by Dave Congrove

The College Football Playoff committee will release their first rankings of the 2018 season on October 30. That leaves just two more weeks of action, including this weekend, before the anxiously anticipated unveiling.

There has been a definitive thinning of the herd over the past couple of weeks as just five teams from Power 5 conferences remain undefeated - Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Ohio State and North Carolina State.

N.C. State's early success was anticipated by the computer as it predicted the Wolfpack would break out of the box in a strong fashion before going 3-3 over the last 6 weeks. But while Dave Doeren's bunch is a not-too-surprising 20.62-point computer underdog at Clemson on Saturday, the backend of the schedule may not prove to be as problematic as it appeared in the preseason. N.C. State goes to Syracuse next week, then hosts Florida State and Wake Forest before concluding its slate at Louisville and North Carolina. All are winnable games.

As for the other 4 unbeaten teams, only Ohio State figures to get tested. The Buckeyes are a mere 9.17-point pick at a rejuvenated Purdue team that possesses the No. 2 offense in the conference behind the second-most efficient passer in senior David Blough and the league's 4th-leading rusher in D.J. Knox. The question mark is a defense which allowed 608 yards to Missouri and 582 to Nebraska, but also held the other four opponents to 375 yards or less.

Meanwhile, Alabama is a 28.03-point pick at Tennessee, and Notre Dame is idle.

A trio of teams from the Group of 5 conferences enter the weekend unscathed, and all hail from the American Athletic Conference - Cincinnati, UCF and USF. UCF is the leading candidate to make a repeat trip to a New Year's 6 bowl, but is still a longshot to creep into Final Four consideration. In fact, following their 31-30 comeback win at Memphis this past Saturday, the Golden Knights (ranked 17th by the computer) only managed to hold steady in the AP and Coaches' Polls at No. 10 and No. 9, respectively.

The computer ranks USF 43rd and Cincinnati 46th.

At the other end of the spectrum, Nebraska will try to end a program-record 10-game losing streak when the Cornhuskers host Minnesota as a slight 0.53-point underdog. Both teams are seeking their first conference win of the year.

Perhaps the top game to watch this week is the annual Great Lakes State rivalry matchup between Michigan and Michigan State which moves to East Lansing this year. The Wolverines lead the series 69-36-5, but the Spartans have been closing the gap by winning 8 of the last 10, and 4 of the last 5. Michigan gets the computer's nod this week by 2.83 points.

The best game in the SEC is Mississippi State at LSU. The computer only gives the Tigers a 0.64-point edge over the visiting Bulldogs which rebounded from consecutive losses to Kentucky and Florida by pulling off a 23-9 upset of Auburn. As for LSU, all they did was dismantle Georgia 36-16 after suffering their own upset loss to Florida.

Action is light in the Big 12 this week as Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas and West Virginia are all idle. That leaves Oklahoma at TCU as the top game in the conference with the Sooners listed as a 9-point favorite by the computer, and Texas Tech's expected 19.97-point destruction of Kansas in Lubbock.

In the PAC-12, USC-Utah and Oregon-Washington State are both hugely important games.

The Utes can crawl back into the south division discussion with a win, or the Trojans can strengthen their lead. Though USC is currently tied with Colorado in the standings, the Trojans hold the tie-breaker with last week's win over the Buffs. The computer likes Utah by a scant 0.55.

Oregon and Washington State are two of the four teams essentially tied atop the PAC-12 north standings, along with Stanford and Washington. The computer takes Wazzu as a 5.10-point favorite over the Ducks.

Another PAC-12 game helps open the week's action when Arizona State hosts Stanford on Thursday night as a 4.18-point underdog.

Three other games take place prior to Saturday's 51-game slate. Georgia State is at Arkansas State on Thursday, while a pair of Friday night contests send Colorado State to Boise State and Air Force to UNLV.

FBS vs. FCS

There is just one game in this category this week as Liberty hosts Idaho State. FBS teams are 93-7 (.930) vs. the FCS this season, and 1,312-124 (.914) since 2003.

Here are all of the FCS victories over FBS teams, so far, in 2018:

August 30: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

UCF - Won 19 straight overall (FBS longest), Won 12 straight conference games including AAC title last year (FBS longest). Visits East Carolina on Saturday.

Alabama - Won 23 straight home games (FBS longest). Visits Tennessee on Saturday.

Oklahoma - Won 17 straight true road games (FBS longest). Visits TCU on Saturday.

UTEP - Lost 18 straight overall (FBS longest). Visits Louisiana Tech on Saturday.

Kansas - Lost 13 straight conference games (FBS longest). Visits Texas Tech on Saturday.

Oregon State - Lost 22 straight road games (FBS longest). Hosts California on Saturday.