Weekend Preview: October Opens With A Fantastic Slate of Games

October 4, 2022 by Staff

The FBS week gets underway two days earlier than previously scheduled, thanks to the SMU-UCF game that was moved from this past Saturday to this Wednesday due to Hurricane Ian. UCF is still a 6.68-point computer play in the "Bounce House", which is more double than 3-point line at the sportsbooks.

There are a season-low 57 games on this week's schedule as 17 teams have a bye and no one plays a school outside the FBS.

Four of those games will take place on a Friday night lineup that features a pair of Mountain West contests, an American Conference rendezvous, and a Big Ten battle of Nebraska at Rutgers.

Get the Complete Schedule and Picks for every game, and discover the three teams that are now tied as favorites among the National Champions odds.

Two games pit Super 16 Poll teams against each other with No. 11 Utah visiting No. 14 UCLA, and No. 13 TCU heading to a resurgent Kansas that popped into the rankings at No. 16.

Utah has rebounded with four straight wins after an opening week upset loss at Florida, while UCLA handed Washington its first defeat last week and is off to its first 5-0 start since 2013. This week, the Utes opened as 4-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook and get a whopping 15.28-point nod from the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com. The over/under opened at 64.5 combined points.

The computer was an insanely good 36-21 against the spread last weekend, beating the Vegas line and all 49 other systems measured by thepredictiontracker.com.

TCU and Kansas both made their first appearance in Super 16 Poll after the Horned Frogs gigged Oklahoma 55-24 and the Jayhawks held off Iowa State for a 14-11 win. The winners face each other on Saturday with TCU pegged as a 6.5-point favorite, and a 7.15-point computer play.

The top four teams in the Super 16 Poll are Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson with Michigan as the first team out. The computer has Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan and Georgia with Oklahoma State as the first team out and Clemson 6th.

Alabama hosts Texas A&M in a game that has numerous storylines - mainly, A&M's win over 'Bama a year ago, and the salty offseason banter between Nick Saban and Jimbo Fisher that basically boiled down to a 'Who's Cheating Who' argument. Pollsters and pundits had Texas A&M in the top ten of the preseason polls, while the computer had the Tide No. 2 and the Aggies No. 30.  The Tide opened as a 24-5-point favorite and the computer likes 'Bama by 22.86. One thing to keep an eye on as the week progresses will be the news on Bryce Young's injury recovery. According to Saban, it was a "little AC sprain" in the throwing shoulder.

Georgia welcomes Auburn to Athens for the 127th meeting. Lately, Georgia has owned the series with 5 straight wins, as well as victories in 16 of the 22 meetings that have taken place in the 21st century. The Tigers played each of their first five games at home and only managed a 3-2 record, most recently losing 21-17 to LSU after staking out a 17-0 lead. The Bulldogs are the defending national champions and are off to a 5-0 start. This past Saturday's 26-22 comeback win at Missouri raised more than a few eyebrows, but the 'Dawgs still opened as a 29.5-point favorite while the computer likes Georgia by a TD less at 22.12.

Ohio State hits the road for the first time this year when the Buckeyes visit Michigan State on Saturday. In the preseason, this was expected to be a tight game with the computer favoring the Buckeyes by less than 6 points. Ohio State now gets a 13-point advantage from the computer and that's still way less than the sportsbooks which opened at 25.5. Not only are the Spartans (2-3) on a 3-game losing streak, they've yet to defeat another Power 5 program.

Clemson heads to Boston College as a 21-point favorite and a 16-point computer pick after consecutive tough games with Wake Forest and NC State. Clemson is 5-0 while the Eagles are 2-3 after Saturday's 34-33 upset of Louisville as a 16-point underdog. With a visit to Florida State up next on Clemson's schedule, would anyone dare call this a potential 'trap' game?

Elsewhere, Michigan is a 21.5-point favorite and a 32.16-point computer play at Indiana, while Oklahoma State is a 10-point home favorite over Texas Tech and a 17-point computer pick.

There are 16 teams with unblemished records entering the week , while Colorado and Colorado State have the rare distinction of being the only two remaining winless programs and hailing from the same state. The Buffs, which just fired head coach Karl Dorrell on Sunday, are idle this week while the Rams are an underdog at Nevada. Interim Colorado head coach Mike Sanford, Jr., who also appears to be the lead candidate for the official HC opening, will debut at home next week against California .

As far as the undefeated teams go, the computer predicts all of them to stay that way with the exceptions of UCLA which is a home underdog to Utah, and Kansas which is a home underdog to TCU. Penn State and Syracuse are insured to last another week among the undefeated programs as both are idle.

The list of other games to watch this week is topped off by BYU and Notre Dame colliding in the Sin City of Las Vegas. It's only the eighth meeting all-time between the Mormon and Catholic schools, and the first since 2013. Notre Dame leads the series 6-2 and opened as a 3-point favorite to win again. The computer puts the spread slightly lower at 2.67.

The Oklahoma-Texas Red River Rivalry resumes this week with the oddsmakers favoring the Longhorns by 6.5 and the computer choosing to the Sooners by 0.85. Texas leads the series 62-50-5, but Oklahoma has taken 4 straight and 6 of the last 7. It looks like Quinn Ewers could return at QB for Texas while Oklahoma has starting QB Dillon Gabriel in concussion protocol. This is the first time since 1998 that these teams will meet with neither ranked in the AP Top 25.

Also keep an eye on Florida State at NC State, Fresno State at Boise State, Tennessee at LSU, and Purdue at Maryland.

In addition to Dorrell at Colorado, Paul Chryst was shockingly let go by Wisconsin. The Badgers visit Northwestern this Saturday with DC Jim Leonhard taking over as interim head coach.

FCS vs. FBS

There will be 118 FBS vs. FCS matchups this season with App State, Army and Marshall each playing two such games, and 115 other FBS schools playing one apiece.

No one plays a FCS school this week and only 8 FBS-FCS matchups remain for the rest of the season.

The FBS is 102-8 vs. the FCS this year, and 1,676-148 (.919) since we began tracking this in 2003.

Here are the FCS wins in 2022:
September 2: William & Mary 41, Charlotte 24
September 3: Delaware14, Navy 7
September 10: Weber State 35, Utah State 7
September 10: Incarnate Word 55, Nevada 41
September 10: Holy Cross 37, Buffalo 31
September 10: Eastern Kentucky 59, Bowling Green 57 (7 OT's)
September 17: Southern Illinois 31, Northwestern 24
September 24: Sacramento State 41, Colorado State 10

Streaks

CLEMSON - Won 11 straight over-all (FBS longest); Won 37 straight home games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 30-20 vs. NC State on Saturday, October 1.
Next: at Boston College on Saturday, October 8.

CINCINNATI: Won 17 straight conference games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 31-21 at Tulsa on Saturday, October 1.
Next: Hosts USF on Saturday, October 8.

GEORGIA - Won 9 straight true road games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 26-22 at Missouri on Saturday, October 1.
Next: Hosts Auburn on Saturday, October 8.

COLORADO STATE - Lost 10 straight over-all (FBS longest). Lost 9 straight to FBS schools (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 41-10 vs. FCS member Sacramento State on Saturday, September 24.
Next: Visits Nevada on Friday, October 7.

VANDERBILT - Lost 22 straight conference games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 55-3 at Alabama on Saturday, February 24.
Next: Hosts Mississippi on Saturday, October 8.

NEW MEXICO STATE - Lost 21 straight road games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 21-7 vs Florida International on Saturday, October 1.
Next: Hosts New Mexico on Saturday, October 15.