UPDATED: Week 11 Preview - 45 Games, 8 Upset Picks

November 14, 2020 by Staff

Four more games scheduled for this Saturday were announced on Friday as being either postponed or canceled and reduced this week's schedule to 44 games and drops another one of our projected upset picks off the slate to reduce that number to 8. Overall, 15 games were removed from this week's schedule.

The newest erasures are Cal at Arizona (will NOT be rescheduled), Coastal Carolina at Troy (might be rescheduled), Gardner-Webb at Charlotte, and Utah at UCLA.

But, in a move that can only be contributed to the craziness of 2020, two of the teams involved in those cancellations quickly scheduled a Sunday game against each other. The addition of Cal at UCLA on Sunday returned the number of this week's games to 45.

When we published this column on Monday, there were plans for 58 games on the docket. That already represented a reduction of 1 game after the Air Force at Wyoming game was announced on Sunday as being canceled due to an increasing number of Covid cases among the Falcons' football team.

We were reduced to 57 with Monday's alert that the Auburn-Mississippi State game was postponed to December 12 (tentative).

Four more games were stricken from the schedule on Tuesday to reduce the number to 53 when Memphis-Navy, ULM-Arkansas State, Alabama-LSU and Texas A&M-Tennessee contests were all put on the postponement list.

On Wednesday, two more games were dropped to bring us to 51 as Ohio State at Maryland, and Georgia at Missouri were also removed from the slate.

Thursday brought the news of 3 more games being altered with Pitt at Georgia Tech moved to December 12, while no new date was announced for the postponements of the North Texas-UAB game or the Rice-Louisiana Tech contest,

All of the moves are Covid-related, and it's the second straight week that Air Force and Navy have had to skip a game due to Covid issues at both of the academies. Rice has only managed to play 2 games and has 4 left on the schedule. For North Texas, this will be the 4th straight week without a game. Cal has had two failures on its attempts to open the season.

The Alabama-LSU game may not be able to find a new date. Same for the Georgia-Missouri game. It's for certain that the Ohio State-Maryland game will NOT be rescheduled.

The Texas A&M-Tennessee game, which had been a projected computer upset play, has (tentatively) been moved to December 12. The ULM-Arkansas State game has also been moved to December 12 as both teams had that date available.

If necessary, the SEC may reschedule some games for December 19, the date of the SEC Championship game.

So far, Wisconsin's game at Michigan has NOT been canceled. That's extremely important for the Badgers and the Big Ten as Wisconsin has had to bow out of its last two scheduled games versus Nebraska (road) and Purdue (home). Due to its late return to the gridiron, the Big Ten could only plan an 8-game season and has stipulated that a team needs to play 6 of those contests to be eligible for the conference championship game.

Ten games were canceled or postponed due to Covid issues last week, but one of those - Louisville at Virginia - was simply moved to this week.

The good news is that Pfizer and BioNTech announced on Monday morning that their vaccine candidate was shown to have 90% efficacy. President Trump's Operation Warp Speed project has accelerated vaccine development, production and delivery times.

Surprisingly, there isn't a single matchup of AP-ranked top 25 teams on the slate this week.

The action for week 11 kicked off extra early this week with the MAC splitting its six games between Tuesday and Wednesday. The Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com went 6-0 for the second straight week in predicting the winners of those games, one of which was a wild comeback by Western Michigan to upend Toledo 41-38.

Thursday had a single Mountain West game with Boise State routing Colorado State 52-21 in Boise. The Broncos were looking to recover from a 51-17 beat-down on the Smurf Turf at the hands of BYU last week. The computer had Boise State favored by 18.70 points, well over the opening 13-point spread.

Three more games on Friday include the nation's highest-ranked Group of Five team, Cincinnati. The No. 7 (AP) Bearcats (6-0) are just one spot ahead of BYU (8-0), even though they face a much tougher schedule. It's for that reason that the computer has more separation between the two schools with Cincinnati ranked 14th and the Cougars 20th. The Bearcats are a hefty 27-point home favorite over East Carolina, though the computer comes in under that number at 24.96.

Friday also has two more of the computer's opposite picks FAU at FIU, and Iowa at Minnesota. See Weekly Picks for the computer's projected margin of every game.

Saturday has a deep list of interesting games, beginning with Noon (ET) kick-offs for Miami at Virginia Tech, Indiana at Michigan State, and Penn State at Nebraska. All but the Hurricanes and Hoosiers were losers this past weekend, and two of them (Virginia Tech, Penn State) were upset losers. Miami barely escaped the upset on its trip to NC State, but Indiana was a big winner over Michigan. Virginia Tech is a surprising 15.17-point computer pick over the 'Canes. The other favorites are Indiana by 14.07 and Penn State by 13.41.

A pair of undefeated Group of Five schools were also scheduled to kick off at Noon, but with the Coastal Carolina (7-0)-Troy game being scratched, that leaves the spotlight on Liberty (7-0) as the Flames welcome Western Carolina for this week's only FBS vs. FCS matchup.

Also at Noon, Kentucky hosts Vanderbilt in the 93rd edition of that border war. The Wildcats are a 21.79-point computer pick to win their fifth straight in the series.

Another undefeated Group of Five school - Marshall - hosts MTSU at 1:30 as an overwhelming 20.24-point computer favorite.

The 3:30 ET kick-offs feature No. 2 Notre Dame at Boston College as a 14.84-point computer choice.

The evening schedule begins with a suddenly dangerous Arkansas team (3-3) visiting a 6th-ranked Florida squad that better not let its guard down after a huge win against Georgia. The oddsmakers like the Gators by 16, but the computer nearly doubles that line to 31.55.

Other evening games to watch include 7 p.m. kick-offs for No. 11 Oregon at Washington State, and No. 19 SMU at Tulsa. Half an hour later, #13 Wisconsin faces a severely wounder Michigan (1-2) in the "Big House", and Purdue hosts No. 23 Northwestern.

Oregon State at Washington get underway at 11.

But remember, the week doesn't finishing until Sunday with the Cal-UCLA game at Noon ET/9:00 a.m. PT.

FCS vs. FBS

31 FBS teams are playing a total of 35 games against FCS schools this season.

There is only one such game on the docket this week with Liberty hosting Western Carolina. Gardner-Webb at Charlotte was canceled altogether.

FBS teams are 28-1 in such matchups this season. Since we began tracking this in 2003, the FBS teams are 1,463-128 (.919).

Last year, FBS teams were 111-3 (.974) in such games.

Here is the only FCS win vs. the FBS this season:
October 23: Jacksonville State 19, FIU 10

These were the FCS wins vs. the FBS in the previous 2 seasons:

2019:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)

2020:
August 29: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

CLEMSON - Three streaks ended with 47-40 double-OT loss at Notre Dame. The Tigers had won 35 straight regular season games, 29 straight conference games and 14 straight true road games - all of which topped the FBS. Clemson still has the longest home game winning streak at 27.
Last: Lost 47-40 in 2 OT at Notre Dame on Saturday, November 7.
Next: Visits Florida State on Saturday, November 21.

NOTRE DAME - Won 13 straight over-all (FBS-longest)
Last: Won 47-40 in 2 OT at home versus Clemson on Saturday, November 7.
Next: Visits Boston College on Saturday,m Novermber 14.

OHIO STATE - Won 18 straight conference games (FBS longest). Won 8 straight road games (FBS longest). Won 19 straight regular season games (FBS longest).
LAST - Game vs. Maryland on Saturday, November 14 was canceled and will not be rescheduled.
NEXT: Hosts Indiana on Saturday, November 21.

NEW MEXICO - Lost 17 straight conference games (FBS longest). Lost 11 straight road games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 39-33 at Hawaii on Saturday, November 7.
Next: Hosts Nevada on Saturday, November 14.

AKRON - Lost 18 straight overall (FBS longest). Lost 9 straight home games (FBS longest). Lost 9 straight road games (FBS second-longest).
Last: Lost 58-13 at home versus Western Michigan on Wednesday, November 4.
Next: Visits Ohio on Tuesday, November 10.