News/Commentary

CollegeFootballPoll.com - Our 2023 MWC Preview Picks Bosie State

August 30, 2023 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

After losing to Fresno State in last season's championship game on its own blue field, Boise State is picked to win the 2023 championship over Air Force.

The conference drops divisions this year so the top two teams out of the entire 12 members will vie for the title. The host will continue to be the team with the best conference record.

There is very little agreement between the projections of the Congrove Computer Rankings and the conference media poll. However, they do agree on the top two teams, and that the Broncos should win the whole thing. The computer has BSU 9.57 power points higher than the Falcons, and the bottom six teams lag way behind by at least 30 power points. Five teams in the Mountain West - Colorado State, Nevada, UNLV, Hawaii and New Mexico - are ranked 103rd or worse.

Still, the race with Air Force is tighter than those numbers indicate. The Broncos get an 8-0 conference forecast, with the Falcons just one game behind as everything boils down to the regular season finale at Boise to determine who hosts the rematch a week later.

Fresno State loses over 4,300 yards worth of offensive production and still finished 3rd in the media vote, but is picked by the computer to slip all the way down to 6th. Wyoming and San Jose State tie for 3rd in the computer's projections, while the media have the Cowboys 6th and Spartans 5th.

Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier left the school last October after the senior, and team captain, was benched in favor of freshman Taylen Green after a horrible outing in an upset loss at UTEP. Bachmeier is now the starter at Louisiana Tech. Green gets his top four pass catachers back, along with the RB's George Holani (1,190 yards and 10 TD's) and Ashton Jeanty (845 yards, 7 TD;'s). There could be some issues on defense where four of the top five tacklers are gone and only 5 starters return. Fortunately, DJ Scramm returns to his inside linebacker spot after racking up 107 tackles a year ago.

Air Force no longer has the services of Brad Edwards at running back after he led the nation in total rushing yards with 1,728 while tallying 17 TD's. John Lee Edlridge (792 yards, 4 TD's) will likely stay at tailback with Owen Burk and/or Jet Harris at fullback. QB Haaziq Daniels' academy career comes to an end after starting for three seasons and twice being named bowl MVP.  Either senior Zac Larrier or junior Jensen Jones will start the season-opener at home against FCS member Robert Morris. That game could be really ugly as the Colonials were 0-11 a year ago and gave up 235.8 rushing yards per game to rank near the bottom of the FCS. Air Force has led the FBS in rushing in each of the last three seasons.

With 15 returning starters, Colorado State could turn the preseason predictions upside down. The Rams are 11th in the conference in the computer numbers, and were voted to finish 7th by the media.

Comparing Computer Projections to Media Poll

CCR MEDIA TEAM
1 1 Boise State
2 2 Air Force
3 6 Wyoming
3 (tie) 5 San Jose State
5 4 San Diego State
6 3 Fresno State
7 8 Utah State
8 11 Nevada
9 9 UNLV
10 10 Hawaii
11 7 Colorado State
12 12 New Mexico
CHAMPIONSHIP: Boise State over Air Froce
Note: Wyoming and SJSU do not play each other

Computer's MWC Projections

CONF
RANK		 NAT'L
RANK		 TEAM POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 15 Boise State 84.69 77.63 11 1 8 0 72
2 23 Air Force 74.25 68.06 11 1 7 1 110
3 52 Wyoming 68.33 45.55 8 4 6 2 86
3 59 San Jose State 69.9 40.78 7 5 6 2 76
5 62 San Diego State 67.64 39.46 7 5 5 3 78
6 61 Fresno State 68.36 39.88 7 5 4 4 118
7 103 Utah State 54.44 18.15 4 8 3 5 81
8 95 Nevada 53.53 22.3 5 7 3 5 102
9 105 Nevada-Las Vegas 53.66 17.89 4 8 3 5 85
10 107 Hawaii 52.26 16.08 4 9 2 6 105
11 108 Colorado State 54.41 13.6 3 9 1 7 109
12 129 New Mexico 43.49 3.62 1 11 0 8 98
TIE-BREAKERS:
2 Teams tied at 6-2. Wyoming and SJSU do not play each other
3 Teams tied at 3-5
- Utah State 1-0 vs. other 3. Beats Nevada. Does not play UNLV
- Nevada 1-1 vs. other 3. Beats UNLV, Loses at Utah State
- UNLV 0-1 vs. other 3. Loses at Nevada. Does not play Utah State
CHAMPION: Boise State

Past MWC Championship Games

DATE RESULT SITE
12/7/13 Fresno State 24, Utah State 17 at Fresno State
12/6/14 Boise State 28, Fresno State 14 at Boise State
12/5/15 San Diego State 27, Fresno State 24 at San Diego
12/3/16 San Diego State 27, Wyoming 24 at Wyoming
12/2/17 Boise State 17, Fresno State 14 at Boise State
12/1/18 Fresno State 19, Boise State 16 (OT) at Boise State
12/7/19 Boise State 31, Hawaii 10 at Boise State
12/19/20 San Jose State 34, Boise State 20 at Las Vegas
12/4/21 Utah State 46, San Diego State 13 at Carson, CA
12/3/22 Fresno State 28, Boise State 16 at Boise State