News/Commentary

NFL Betting: Three Teams That Are Surprisingly Considered Outsiders To Reach the Playoffs

July 28, 2025 by Staff

As the 2025 NFL season hurtles toward its September 4th launch—a Thursday-night collision between the reigning champion Eagles and their archrival Cowboys—the spread of anticipation blankets every corner of the country. Most futures conversations orbit the league’s superpowers: Philadelphia still basking in Super Bowl glory, Kansas City determined to reclaim their throne, and Buffalo hoping that this year is finally their year. But for savvy bettors, value often lurks away from center stage.

We all know of the big guns who are expected to contend, but there are some other household names that the bookies consider to be outsiders not in winning the Lombardi next February, but just reaching the playoffs at all. So who are they, and why do we think they could upset the odds? Let's find out. 

Atlanta Falcons

For Atlanta, 2024 was the familiar rollercoaster—the promise of a blazing 6-3 start, the sting of a midseason four-game crash, and an overtime heartbreaker that marked their seventh consecutive year on the playoff sidelines. As we head into 2025, online sports betting sites feel that further heartache could be just around the corner.

The latest online sports betting at Bovada odds currently prices the Falcons as a +130 outsider to reach the playoffs this season, a surprising fact considering just how weak their NFC South division truly is. Both the Panthers and the Saints look like no-hopers, while the reigning divisional champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers are perhaps the weakest of all eight division winners from 2024.

Under the stewardship of Raheem Morris, Atlanta finally pulled the plug on the Kirk Cousins experiment after a string of costly interceptions and cold spells. Enter Michael Penix Jr.—the rocket-armed rookie who, in just three starts, passed for 775 yards and nearly willed Atlanta back into the playoff chase. Few young QBs have generated as much late-season optimism in recent franchise memory.

The offense, powered by Bijan Robinson (1,456 rushing yards and 14 TDs last term) and a resurgent Drake London (1,271 receiving yards), ranks among the league’s most explosive young trios. Yet the defensive numbers told a damning tale: a 28.9% pressure rate - the second worst in the entire league - leaving the Falcons at the mercy of opposing quarterbacks for too many crucial drives.

To their credit, Atlanta’s front office responded with rare urgency. They invested significant draft capital in pass-rush reinforcements, picking up both Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. in the first round. Can this infusion of young talent and newly acquired grit finally halt the Falcons’ cycle of late-season collapse? If Penix builds on his rookie spark, and the rebuilt defense finds its pulse, Atlanta could be on the cusp of breaking the NFC’s longest playoff drought.

Pittsburgh Steelers

No franchise embodies “just enough to stay relevant” like the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their 10-7 campaign in 2024 was pure Mike Tomlin: resourceful, resilient, but—ultimately—incomplete. Flashes of defensive dominance, sparked by the irrepressible T.J. Watt, kept the Black and Yellow in contention, but the offense labored through another season of turbulence.

While the pass rush delivered in stretches, the run defense fell apart late, allowing a shocking 145+ rushing yards per game over Pittsburgh’s final three contests. On offense, the quarterback carousel spun chaotically, with both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields starting strong but ultimately running out of steam. Now, however, both have departed, and a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers has arrived in a bid for one last hurrah.

The offseason has been a masterclass in incremental improvement. Darius Slay Jr.—adding veteran brains and swagger to a secondary already anchored by Joey Porter Jr.—should tighten a leaky back end. Running back Kenneth Gainwell, fresh from Philadelphia, steps into a supporting role behind Jaylen Warren, with Najee Harris heading elsewhere. The front seven, reinforced through mid-level free-agent splurges, will be tasked with restoring Pittsburgh’s run-stopping tradition. And that's without mentioning superstar wideout DK Metcalf and four-time MVP A-Rod.

But the central drama remains unchanged: can Rodgers, with a full offseason under center following that disastrous injury in 2023, unlock the vertical dimension and orchestrate an offense that matches this defense’s snarl? In the AFC North’s most sadistic gauntlet, where every divisional clash carries playoff ramifications, there are no soft landings. Still, the Steelers’ culture of overachievement makes these odds more invitation than warning.

Miami Dolphins

Was there a team more snakebitten in 2024 than Miami? Expectations soared after a 2023 campaign in which Tua Tagovailoa shone as the league's passing yards leader. However, as all too often has been the case with the quarterback ace, injuries would rear their heads and torpedo the Dolphins' hopes once again.

Glimpses of offensive genius, courtesy of Tyreek Hill’s weekly detonations and Raheem Mostert’s breakaways, routinely gave way to head-scratching collapses. In the end, they collapsed to an 8-9 finish, losing their final game of the season against the Jets, with Tua on the sidelines, to miss out on the playoffs.

By the numbers, Miami’s offense ranked near the top of the yards-per-play tree when healthy, but fell apart the moment Tagovailoa went down. The offensive line, patched together by necessity, allowed too many free runs at the quarterback. The defensive front flashed with Bradley Chubb, but the complementary pass-rush behind him evaporated, especially when the attrition hit.

The front office responded with a deep, pragmatic offseason—beefing up the trenches with 13th overall pick Kenneth Grant and gambling on a secondary reboot in round five with Jason Marshall Jr. Tagovailoa has recommitted to durability and “availability as an ability,” transforming his offseason regime with the guidance of franchise doctors and outside trainers. Whether that gets him through a full campaign unscathed, however, remains to be seen.

If a newly fortified offensive front keeps Tagovailoa upright, and if the defense finds a serviceable rotation, Miami’s weapons can turn any game into a track meet. The truth for bettors: these odds are a referendum on Tagovailoa’s health. If he’s on the field in December, Miami threatens anybody—odds be damned.