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The 2025 NFL Preseason rankings and picks at CollegeFootballPoll.com predict something that will have the Buffalo Bills Mafia jumping with joy - a Super Bowl appearance that actually comes with a Super Bowl trophy.
The Bills are even projected to go unbeaten, though that should be taken with the understanding that - unlike a lot of prognosticators and predictions from other sources - the computer reconciles wins and losses across the board. And unlike college football, virtually every NFL game has a predicted spread within a touchdown.
Hence, the numbers can spit out some other interesting, if not head-turning, predictions like the NFL East failing to produce a team with more than 7 wins, or the AFC South being won with 8 wins. But then again, in reality, Washington won the division with a 7-9 mark in 2020, and the Seattle Seahawks tied the LA Rams at 7-9 to top the NFC West in 2010.
In 2020, the four NFC East teams won only 20 games combined. The forecast says they will win 21 this year while the AFC South teams are projected to win a total of 22.
Another reality is that since 2020, when the league expanded the playoffs to 14 teams, 52% of the playoff teams do not return to the playoffs the following year.
The 48% of the teams who defy those numbers are the exceptions who manage their rosters and salary caps effectively. It also doesn't hurt to have the likes of a Tom Brady (7 Super Bowl wins) or a Joe Montana (4), or a Terry Bradshaw (4) at quarterback. Or a head coach such as Bill Belichick (6 Super Bowl wins) or Andy Reid (3). The front office can also be a huge factor.
The NFL attempts to balance the scale through its scheduling.
This year, the NFC East teams (Commanders, Cowboys, Eagles and Giants) will face every member of the NFC North (Bears, Lions, Packers and Vikings), and the AFC South members (Colts, Jags, Texans and Titans) will face every team from the NFC West (49ers, Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks).
Additionally, the NFC East and the AFC South teams will both face every member of the AFC West (Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders).
Buffalo's schedule appears to set up for a Super Bowl LX run as games against all of its expected toughest opponents will be played at home, including the Chiefs on 11/2, the Bucs on 11/16, the Bengals on 12/7 and the Eagles on 12/28. Even the Saints on 9/28 if, indeed, New Orleans lives up to anything near its 14-3 forecast.
Buffalo is a huge favorite to win it all, by NFL standards. Only four NFL teams - Tampa Bay, Detroit, Denver and Green Bay - are within less than 5 points. The Bills get Tampa Bay at home in week 11, and don't face the Lions, Broncos or Packers.
It looks like a Denver @ Buffalo matchup for the AFC Championship, and Green Bay @ Tampa Bay for the NFC title with Buffalo narrowly favored over the Bucs in Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara. However, even if the computer picked 100% of the winners correctly, all computer lines will change each week based on actual outcomes (winner and margin vs. expected winner and margin).
No. 1 playoff seeds have advanced to the Super Bowl just 14 times out of 59. Kansas City's win over Phialdelphia after the 2022 is the last time that occurred, and it's the only time since the 14-team playoff field was adapted.
Buffalo is favored to win the AFC East with relative ease, while Tampa Bay is expected to be challenged by New Orleans and gets the divisional nod and top NFC seed by tie-breaker.
For some historical context, only the 1972 Miami Dolphins have completed a regular season and the playoffs without a single loss (17-0). New England completed the first part of that equation in 2007 and even ran their record to 18-0 with an AFC title game win over the San Diego Chargers. But the Patriots finished 18-1 after losing to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl that featured David Tyree's 'helmet catch" that set up Plaxico Burruss' 13-yard reception from Eli Manning with 35 seconds left for the 17-14 upset.
The 1932 and 1942 Bears both won every regular season game, but lost the '34 championship to the 8-5 NY Giants by a score of 30-13 at the New York Polo Grounds, and the WW2-era '42 title game to the 10-1 Redskins by a count of 14-6 in the nation's capital.
The 1985 Dolphins stopped Chicago from their undefeated run by handing beloved head coach Mike Ditka's club a 38-24 loss at the old Orange Bowl Stadium after Da Bears had started the season at 12-0. Chicago would go on to crush New England 46-10 in the Super Bowl and become the second straight NFL club to finish the season with an 18-1 record. That feat had never been accomplished until the 49ers did so in the previous year, and It didn't happen again until the 2007 Patriots.
The Buffalo Bills have long looked to swat the Super Bowl monkey off their back. The franchise famously lost four straight Super Bowls from the 1990 through 1993 seasons. Since then, they've come no closer than a single crack at the AFC Championship in the 2020 season when they took a 38-24 loss at Kansas City in front of a Covid-limited crowd of 16,993.
While the computer may have Buffalo joining Miami in historically rarified NFL air, the Bills will be happy with any won-loss record that goes next to the title of "Super Bowl Winner".
Buffalo and 2024 NFL MVP Josh Allen will get a stiff challenge right out of the gate as they host 2023 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens for the prime time Sunday Night Football game in week 1.
Allen and Jackson, along with Cincinnati's Joe Burrow, have the best NFL MVP odds in 2025, followed closely by Kansas City's Mahomes who won the award in 2018 and 2022..
In the other divisions that we have not said anything about, the computer predicts a tie in the AFC North between Baltimore and Cincinnati with records of 13-4 over-all, 9-3 in the conference and 5-1 in the division. Thus, by following the NFL tie-breaker rules, the Bengals advance on the strength of victory in all games (Step 5).
We briefly mentioned what's expected to be a weak AFC South with no team better than 8-9. That team is the Indianapolis Colts, followed by a Jacksonville squad that goes 7-10 but 3-3 in the division, while Houston drops to just 6-11 over-all while recording a 4-2 mark in the division.
In the AFC West, the computer has Denver (16-1) poised to end Kansas City's (15-2) nine-year stranglehold on first place. Prior to the current run by the Chiefs, Denver was that division's champ for five straight seasons. The Broncos and Chiefs are each given a 5-1 forecast within the division, but Denver is projected to go 11-1 vs. the AFC, compared to Kansas City at 10-2.
In the NFC East, as earlier mentioned, Washington is the predicted winner at 7-10 over-all, followed by Philadelphia at 6-11 and Dallas at 5-11. It goes without saying that it's difficult to imagine that the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles will tumble that far with Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts and the NFL's top running back, Saquon Barkley leading the charge on offense. But if it happens, the schedule could play a key role as they have to go on the road to face the Chiefs, Bucs, Packers, Chargers and Bills. Plus, OC Kellen Moore has left after just one season to deservedly take on the role of head coach with the Saints.
We can't argue much about Dallas, given its history of injuries, underperformance and dysfunction when it comes to contract negotiations with its biggest stars (i.e. Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons). Jerry Jones reign as owner started off well with Super Bowl wins following the 1992, 1993 and 1995 seasons, but the Cowboys haven't won an NFC title since that last Super Bowl victory.
Dallas fans are hoping that new head coach Brian Schottenheimer can help reverse their fortunes.
The Cowboys are one of seven NFL teams with a new head coach in 2025. The others are Ben Johnson with Chicago, Mike Vrabel with New England, Liam Coen in Jacksonville, Pete Carroll in Las Vegas, Aaron Glenn with the New York Jets, and Kellen Moore with the New Orleans Saints.
No NFL coach has won a Super Bowl with two different teams. Sorry Las Vegas, but Carroll already had his with Seattle a dozen years ago.
The NFC North offers another tight race with Green Bay at 14-3 and Detroit at 13-4. Both are forecast to go 5-1 in the division and split their head-to-head meetings. The Lions are predicted to go 11-1 in NFC games while the Packers go 10-2. As for the rest of that division, Minnesota gets saddled with a major drop-off and the Bears buried even deeper at the bottom.
The computer sees the NFC South as another tight race with Tampa Bay and New Orleans both going 14-3 over-all, 10-2 in the conference and 5-1 in the division with the Bucs winning the tie-breaker on their strength of victory in all games.
AFC East: (1) Buffalo, 17-0
AFC West: (2) Denver 16-1
AFC North: (3) Cincinnati, 13-4 (Wins tie-breaker over Baltimore)
AFC South: (4) Indianapolis, 8-9
AFC Wild Cards
(5) Kansas City, 15-2
(6) Baltimore, 13-4
(7) LA Chargers, 10-7
NFC South: 1) Tampa Bay, 14-3 (Wins tie-breaker over New Orleans)
NFC North: (2) Green Bay, 14-3
NFC West: (3) Arizona, 12-5
NFC East: (4) Washington, 7-10
NFC Wild Cards
(5) New Orleans,14-3
(6) Detroit, 13-4
(7) San Francisco, 10-7
AFC Wild Card Round
(1) Buffalo, bye
(7) LA Chargers at (2) Denver (-8.10)
(6) Baltimore at (3) Cincinnati (-3.5)
(5) Kansas City (-0.81) at (4) Indianapolis
NFL Wild Card Round
(1) Tampa Bay, bye
(7) San Francisco at (2) Green Bay (-5.11)
(6) Detroit at (3) Arizona (-0.93)
(5) New Orleans (-1.15) at (4) Washington
AFC Divisional Round
(5) Kansas City at (1) Buffalo (-8.11)
(3) Cincinnati at (2) Denver (-4.34)
NFC Divisional Round
(5) New Orleans at (1) Tampa Bay (-5.88)
(3) Arizona at (2) Green Bay (-3.87)
AFC Championship
(2) Denver at (1) Buffalo (-6.88)
NFC Championship
(2) Green Bay at (1) Tampa Bay (-5.36)
Super Bowl LX at Santa Clara, CA
Tampa Bay vs. Buffalo (-2.21)