News/Commentary

2025 Congrove Computer Rankings Project National Champ and Conference Races

August 18, 2025 by CollegeFootballPoll.com staff

Will the SEC and the B1G may be as dominant in 2025 as most predict? What new teams could make a run at the national title? Those are just two of the topics tackled in the season preview.

The projected final regular season FBS standings, based on the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com have those two conferences holding six of the top ten spots with three schools each. But three other conferences and one independent are also in the top ten mix with 2 from the Big 12, 1 from the ACC and 1 independent.

The rankings are among the few that are officially recognized by the NCAA as a national champion selector.

CollegeFootballPoll.com is celebrating its 27th season on the internet while the Congrove Computer Rankings are embarking on their 33rd season.

The 2025 forecast has the Big Ten's Penn State at No. 1 and undefeated by the time Conference Championship Weekend rolls around, with independent Notre Dame 2nd and Clemson of the ACC ranked 3rd. Then comes the preseason darling of a many prognosticators, the Texas Longhorns (SEC), followed by Iowa State of the Big 12.

Oregon (Big Ten), Missouri (SEC), LSU (SEC), Arizona State (Big 12) and Illinois (Big Ten) round out the projected top ten

Among those squads that are noticeably absent from the top ten are the Alabama Crimson Tide, the Georgia Bulldogs and the defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes. The Tide are at No. 23, the Buckeyes at No.21 and the Bulldogs at No. 12.

Those rankings defy the FanDuel.com college football national championship odds where Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama are among the top five..

Players chasing NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) dollars through the transfer portal make it extremely difficult to make preseason predictions. Even the traditional powers find themselves with a roster turnover rate of 50% or more. Everyone wants to be a member of a big name program like the Tide, 'Horns, Buckeyes, Wolverines, Trojans, etc., until they find out what they're competing against for playing time. Then, it's "Katy, bar the door" as they join the mass migration to the transfer portal in search of a team that may bid for their services and make them a star. Even if you're among the lucky ones who got the starting job, it doesn't mean you will even be on that same campus before the season ends as you can always do what Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos did -- quit, and then find yourself in the starting role at Florida State. Why compete for a job when you can just land one elsewhere? That kind of craziness, promoted and encouraged by NIL and the Transfer Portal, led Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley to leave the college ranks and join the NFL as defensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers.

Then you have Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney who still goes about matters the old-fashioned way by replying on the consistency of growing players within the system. The Tigers are right there at the top for number of returning starters and percentage of returning production. (SOURCE: College football returning production for 2025 season: List of starters coming back for every Power Four team).

TruMedia Sports says each of the last eight national champions returned at least eleven players with six or more starts the previous season.

Porjected Top 25 (Congrove Computer Rankings)

RANK TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 Penn State B1G 88.04 88.04 12 0 9 0 28
2 Notre Dame Ind. 87.52 87.52 12 0     14
3 Clemson ACC 86.39 86.39 12 0 8 0 31
4 Texas SEC 86.1 86.1 12 0 8 0 17
5 Iowa State Big 12 81.54 81.54 12 0 9 0 34
6 Oregon B1G 88.34 80.98 11 1 8 1 8
7 Missouri SEC 77.66 77.66 12 0 8 0 50
8 Louisiana State SEC 84.52 77.48 11 1 8 0 12
9 Arizona State Big 12 83.24 76.3 11 1 8 1 44
10 Illinois B1G 81.5 74.71 11 1 8 1 57
11 Miami (FLA) ACC 80.73 74 11 1 8 0 18
12 Georgia SEC 80.7 73.98 11 1 7 1 42
13 Boise State MWC 78.81 72.24 11 1 8 0 108
14 Texas Tech Big 12 75.01 68.76 11 1 8 1 77
15 Navy American 73.36 67.25 11 1 8 0 87
16 Indiana B1G 78.9 65.75 10 2 7 2 61
17 Toledo MAC 65.73 65.73 12 0 8 0 136
18 Tulane American 71.1 65.18 11 1 8 0 76
19 Texas Christian Big 12 77.2 64.33 10 2 7 2 19
20 Buffalo MAC 68.44 62.74 11 1 8 0 129
21 Ohio State B1G 82.53 61.9 9 3 7 2 22
22 James Madison Sun-E 67.26 61.66 11 1 8 0 93
23 Alabama SEC 77.81 58.36 9 3 5 3 16
24 Louisville ACC 77.47 58.1 9 3 5 3 30
25 Liberty CUSA 63.32 58.04 11 1 8 0 132

Projected Playoff Field

The second year of the 12-team playoff format will have a major change in the seeding of the teams and who receives byes. The 12-team bracket will be seeded directly based on the final ranking of the teams by the Committee, with the byes simply going to the four highest-ranked teams. If one or more of the five highest-ranked conference champions are ranked outside the top 12, that team or teams would move up to the 12th seed, 11th seed, etc., based on the number of conference champions outside the top 12.

Teams ranked 5 through 8 will still host seeds 9 through 12 in the first round (12 at 5, 11 at 6, 10 at 7, 9 at 8).

(SEE: Playoff Explained).

The 12-team field, based on the Congrove Computer Rankings, would look similar to last year's field at the top with power conference champions Oregon (B1G), Texas (SEC), Arizona State (Big 12) and Clemson (ACC) leading the way, along with independent Notre Dame.

Also making the field would be Penn State and Illinois form the Big Ten, Iowa State from the Big 12, and three teams from the SEC - Missouri, LSU and Georgia.

The 11th team would could come down to Miami, Indiana or Texas Tech.

The non-power conference champion would complete the 12-seed field and that is expected to once again be Boise State. The most likely challengers are Navy and Tulane, followed by Toledo, James Madison and Liberty.

Undefeated Champion?

The computer has a whopping seven teams going undefeated through the regular season - Clemson, Penn State, Iowa State, Notre Dame, Toledo, Texas and Missouri. Four of those would fall on Conference Championship Weekend would (Penn State, Iowa State, Toledo and Missouri).

By power ranking alone, Oregon and Penn State are the most likely combatants for the national championship, which would make it an all-Big Ten affair. That would also be a repeat of the the Big Ten Conference championship game and the September 27 regular season game at Happy Valley.

The Power Rankings handicap the next three most likely championship teams to be Notre Dame, Clemson and Texas - in that order.

Others To Watch

As mentioned earlier, the champion is more likely to be a team that returns at least 11 players who started on offense or defense a year ago. Arizona State leads that brigade with 17, followed by Clemson (16) and the not-yet mentioned Texas A&M (15).

Alabama, Penn State, Iowa State and Pitt each have 14, while Baylor, Michigan, Missouri and Vanderbilt return 13.

Texas has 9, and Oregon has just 5.

Head Coach Changes

29 teams will kick off the 2025 season with a different head coach than the one who patrolled the sideline on opening day a year ago. Only six of those involve Power 4 Conference teams.

UCF welcomes back Scott Frost, and West Virginia embarks on a second stint with Rich Rodriguez.

The most talked about new head coach of 2025 is Bill Belichick at North Carolina.

The others are Purdue, Stanford and Wake Forest.

(SEE: Head Coaching Changes).

Projected Regular Season Conference Standings

Here the projected final regular season standings for each conference. It does not include conference championship games, playoff results or bowl results as those matchups are not yet known. It DOES predict which teams will play in conference championships and who the winners will be.

AAC (American Athletic Conference)

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 15 Navy American 73.36 67.25 11 1 8 0 87
1 18 *Tulane American 71.10 65.18 11 1 8 0 76
3 32 Army American 69.24 51.93 9 3 7 1 79
4 42 USF American 70.56 47.04 8 4 7 1 69
5 48 UTSA American 64.06 42.71 8 4 5 3 72
5 52 Memphis American 59.90 39.93 8 4 5 3 101
7 53 North Texas American 59.53 39.69 8 4 4 4 107
8 91 East Carolina American 51.75 21.56 5 7 4 4 91
9 103 Rice American 44.82 14.94 4 8 3 5 82
10 117 FAU American 42.28 10.57 3 9 2 6 92
11 126 Tulsa American 42.81 7.14 2 10 2 6 95
12 115 Temple American 43.51 10.88 3 9 1 7 73
13 127 UAB American 42.23 7.04 2 10 0 8 75
14 132 Charlotte American 39.28 3.27 1 11 0 8 70
*-Tulane wins tie-breaker with Navy to host  conference championship (higher national ranking), and is projected 0.74-point winner.

ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference)

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 3 *-Clemson ACC 86.39 86.39 12 0 8 0 31
2 11 Miami (FLA) ACC 80.73 74.00 11 1 8 0 18
3 26 SMU ACC 76.95 57.71 9 3 6 2 35
4 37 Duke ACC 73.47 48.98 8 4 6 2 40
5 24 Louisville ACC 77.47 58.10 9 3 5 3 30
6 47 NC State ACC 66.21 44.14 8 4 5 3 55
7 51 Pittsburgh ACC 68.78 40.12 7 5 4 4 39
8 63 Syracuse ACC 71.49 35.75 6 6 4 4 6
8 65 Georgia Tech ACC 69.04 34.52 6 6 4 4 33
8 70 Virginia Tech ACC 62.30 31.15 6 6 4 4 53
11 66 Boston College ACC 67.97 33.99 6 6 3 5 10
11 75 Virginia ACC 57.83 28.92 6 6 3 5 68
11 77 North Carolina ACC 56.25 28.13 6 6 3 5 63
14 99 California ACC 59.20 19.73 4 8 2 6 54
15 105 Stanford ACC 57.25 14.31 3 9 2 6 21
16 107 Florida State ACC 56.98 14.25 3 9 1 7 56
17 123 Wake Forest ACC 48.23 8.04 2 10 0 8 65
*-Clemson is a projected 5.66-point favorite to defeat Miami in ACC Championship game in Charlotte.    

B1G (Big Ten)

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 1 Penn State B1G 88.04 88.04 12 0 9 0 28
2 6 *-Oregon B1G 88.34 80.98 11 1 8 1 8
2 10 Illinois B1G 81.50 74.71 11 1 8 1 57
4 16 Indiana B1G 78.90 65.75 10 2 7 2 61
5 21 Ohio State B1G 82.53 61.90 9 3 7 2 22
6 38 Southern California B1G 72.98 48.65 8 4 6 3 24
6 43 Michigan B1G 70.46 46.97 8 4 6 3 62
8 33 Rutgers B1G 77.25 51.50 8 4 5 4 25
8 40 Minnesota B1G 71.88 47.92 8 4 5 4 41
8 45 Nebraska B1G 68.24 45.49 8 4 5 4 52
11 58 Iowa B1G 73.99 37.00 6 6 4 5 7
12 67 Washington B1G 64.37 32.19 6 6 3 6 37
13 85 Wisconsin B1G 68.02 22.67 4 8 2 7 1
13 93 Michigan State B1G 64.13 21.38 4 8 2 7 26
13 95 Northwestern B1G 62.64 20.88 4 8 2 7 29
16 104 UCLA B1G 59.71 14.93 3 9 1 8 27
17 111 Maryland B1G 51.69 12.92 3 9 0 9 45
18 136 Purdue B1G 29.87 0.00 0 12 0 9 9
*-Oregon projected to win tie-breaker (common opponents with best conference record)        
*-Oregon is a projected 0.30-point favorite over Penn State in B1G  Championship game in Indianapolis.    

Big 12

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 5 Iowa State Big 12 81.54 81.54 12 0 9 0 34
2 9 *-Arizona State Big 12 83.24 76.30 11 1 8 1 44
2 14 Texas Tech Big 12 75.01 68.76 11 1 8 1 77
4 19 TCU Big 12 77.20 64.33 10 2 7 2 19
5 27 Baylor Big 12 75.49 56.62 9 3 7 2 51
6 41 Kansas State Big 12 71.52 47.68 8 4 5 4 43
6 44 BYU Big 12 70.10 46.73 8 4 5 4 59
8 54 Colorado Big 12 67.18 39.19 7 5 4 5 23
8 56 Utah Big 12 65.15 38.00 7 5 4 5 48
10 69 Cincinnati Big 12  63.93 31.97 6 6 4 5 64
10 72 Houston Big 12 59.96 29.98 6 6 4 5 58
12 84 Kansas Big 12 54.70 22.79 5 7 3 6 60
13 96 Arizona Big 12 60.27 20.09 4 8 2 7 36
14 112 UCF Big 12 47.49 11.87 3 9 1 8 67
15 120 West Virginia Big 12 53.56 8.93 2 10 1 8 46
16 121 Oklahoma State Big 12 49.59 8.27 2 10 0 9 47
*-Arizona State takes 2nd place by regular season home win over Texas Tech on 10/18.        
*-Arizona State is a projected 1.70-point favorite over Iowa State in Big 12 Championship Game at Arlington, TX.    

CUSA (Conference USA)

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 25 *-Liberty CUSA 63.32 58.04 11 1 8 0 132
2 49 Sam Houston CUSA 55.28 41.46 9 3 8 0 116
3 59 Delaware CUSA 55.20 36.80 8 4 6 2 128
4 68 Middle Tennessee CUSA 48.26 32.17 8 4 5 3 135
5 76 Louisiana Tech CUSA 49.20 28.70 7 5 5 3 126
6 82 Western Kentucky CUSA 47.27 23.64 6 6 4 4 125
6 83 Jax State CUSA 46.80 23.40 6 6 4 4 133
8 106 Kennesaw State CUSA 42.88 14.29 4 8 3 5 130
9 109 New Mexico State CUSA 41.42 13.81 4 8 2 6 131
10 116 Missouri State CUSA 43.41 10.85 3 9 2 6 122
11 114 UTEP CUSA 43.55 10.89 3 9 1 7 114
12 129 FIU CUSA 39.50 6.58 2 10 0 8 113
Delaware (CAA) and Missouri State (MVFC) move to the FBS and are eligible for CUSA title, but are ineligible for FBS Playoff and bowls
*-Liberty projected to host Sam Houston for CUSA Championship, and projected to win by 9.04.      

INDEPENDENT

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 2 Notre Dame Ind. 87.52 87.52 12 0     14
2 50 Connecticut Ind. 61.97 41.31 8 4     100

MAC (Mid-American Conference)

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 17 Toledo MAC 65.73 65.73 12 0 8 0 136
2 20 *-Buffalo MAC 68.44 62.74 11 1 8 0 129
3 39 Ohio MAC 64.66 48.50 9 3 7 1 99
4 73 Central Michigan MAC 50.91 29.70 7 5 6 2 120
5 64 Miami (O) MAC 59.92 34.95 7 5 5 3 83
6 97 Eastern Michigan MAC 48.00 20.00 5 7 4 4 106
6 98 Northern Illinois MAC 47.72 19.88 5 7 4 4 134
8 102 Bowling Green MAC 47.39 15.80 4 8 3 5 98
8 110 Akron MAC 40.53 13.51 4 8 3 5 127
10 113 Western Michigan MAC 46.63 11.66 3 9 2 6 86
11 130 Ball State MAC 36.81 6.14 2 10 1 7 123
11 131 Massachusetts MAC 35.36 5.89 2 10 1 7 119
13 134 Kent State MAC 31.77 2.65 1 11 0 8 115
*-Buffalo is a projected 2.71-point favorite over Toldeo in the MAC Championship game at Detroit.      
Massachusetts returns to MAC (2012-2015) after 9 seasons as an independent.          

MWC (Mountain West Conference)

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 13 *-Boise State MWC 78.81 72.24 11 1 8 0 108
1 36 San Jose State MWC 59.26 49.38 10 2 8 0 109
3 46 Hawaii MWC 59.32 44.49 9 3 6 2 112
4 62 Air Force MWC 62.15 36.25 7 5 6 2 78
5 71 San Diego State MWC 52.63 30.70 7 5 4 4 118
6 92 Fresno State MWC 51.54 21.48 5 7 4 4 88
7 88 Colorado State MWC 53.05 22.10 5 7 3 5 84
8 94 Wyoming MWC 50.63 21.10 5 7 3 5 111
9 100 UNLV MWC 51.90 17.30 4 8 3 5 103
9 119 New Mexico MWC 39.84 9.96 3 9 2 6 96
11 128 Utah State MWC 40.52 6.75 2 10 1 7 81
12 133 Nevada MWC 38.69 3.22 1 11 0 8 110
*-Boise State and SJSU don't play in regular season. BSU hosts by higher ranking and is a 22.55-point projected favorite  

PAC-2

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
  35 Oregon State PAC-2 59.65 49.71 10 2 2 0 89
  122 Washington State PAC-2 49.07 8.18 2 10 0 2 66

SEC (Southeastern Conference)

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 4 *-Texas SEC 86.10 86.10 12 0 8 0 17
1 7 Missouri SEC 77.66 77.66 12 0 8 0 50
3 8 LSU SEC 84.52 77.48 11 1 8 0 12
4 12 Georgia SEC 80.70 73.98 11 1 7 1 42
5 23 Alabama SEC 77.81 58.36 9 3 5 3 16
5 28 Ole Miss SEC 75.42 56.57 9 3 5 3 38
5 29 Tennessee SEC 74.56 55.92 9 3 5 3 49
8 34 Texas A & M SEC 76.69 51.13 8 4 5 3 13
9 55 Florida SEC 76.07 38.04 6 6 3 5 2
9 61 South Carolina SEC 72.51 36.26 6 6 3 5 4
11 57 Vanderbilt SEC 74.50 37.25 6 6 2 6 32
11 60 Oklahoma SEC 72.95 36.48 6 6 2 6 15
13 78 Arkansas SEC 67.06 27.94 5 7 2 6 3
14 87 Auburn SEC 66.41 22.14 4 8 1 7 20
15 108 Mississippi State SEC 56.84 14.21 3 9 0 8 11
16 118 Kentucky SEC 62.55 10.43 2 10 0 8 5
*-Texas and Missouri do not meet during regular season; Texas is projected 8.44-point favorite in SEC Championship in Atlanta.

SBC (Sun Belt Conference)

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 22 *-James Madison Sun-E 67.26 61.66 11 1 8 0 93
2 30 Georgia Southern Sun-E 66.56 55.47 10 2 7 1 124
3 79 Old Dominion Sun-E 53.60 26.80 6 6 5 3 74
4 81 Coastal Carolina Sun-E 52.46 26.23 6 6 4 4 102
5 101 Marshall Sun-E 48.10 16.03 4 8 2 6 85
6 124 Georgia State Sun-E 45.09 7.52 2 10 1 7 71
6 125 Appalachian State Sun-E 43.65 7.28 2 10 1 7 97
                     
1 31 *-Louisiana Sun-W 62.69 52.24 10 2 7 1 121
2 74 ULM Sun-W 50.77 29.62 7 5 5 3 117
2 80 Texas State Sun-W 52.62 26.31 6 6 4 4 80
4 86 South Alabama Sun-W 53.68 22.37 5 7 4 4 104
4 90 Troy Sun-W 52.92 22.05 5 7 4 4 94
6 89 Arkansas State Sun-W 52.92 22.05 5 7 3 5 90
7 135 Southern Miss Sun-W 33.94 0.00 0 12 0 8 105
*-James Madison projected to host and win SBC Championship as a 7.57-point favorite over Louisiana