Josh Allen Remains the Wild Card in This Year’s QB Draft Class

April 17, 2018 by CFP Staff

For months, Wyoming QB Josh Allen has been touted as one of the top prospects in this year’s NFL draft. Allen is a strange case, however. He was only a two-year starter at FBS and his numbers didn’t exactly set the world alight. His Wyoming career saw him achieve a 56.2% completion rate, with 7.8 YPA, 44 TDs, 21 INTs, and a passer rating of just 137.7.

By comparison, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield are winners of the last two Heisman Trophies, and Sam Darnold threw for 57 TDs with a 153.7 passer rating in that time. Josh Rosen often suffered from injuries in a poor UCLA team, but was a five-year starter, with some great games under his belt. Even Mason Rudolph passed for 86 TDs, with a 159.7 rating in his three years starting.

Needs development

Of this year’s top QB prospects, Allen is the one who many believe will need the most development. So for anyone considering placing a wager on next season’s NFL action will likely want to avoid betting on whoever picks Allen. For the team that takes Josh Rosen, however, it may be a different story, with the former UCLA QB regarded as the most pro-ready. Of course, it’s all yet to be played out, which is what makes the draft so intriguing. Predicting the Super Bowl winner of next year, with bet365 NFL odds on all 32 teams, is equally a way for fans to remain involved in the off-season. How the draft will affect those odds remains to be seen - the New England Patriots are the current favourites at 5/1.

In defense of Allen

Mel Kiper Jr, ESPN’s draft guru, has said that stats don’t mean anything and thinks that Allen deserves to be drafted high simply because he won. Even if his win-loss record should count, however, he was only 15-9 against FBS teams. Often, too, it was the school’s defense that had more to do with winning games.

An often-made argument in the defense of Allen is that Wyoming didn’t have as much offensive talent as the schools featuring the other top QB prospects. That might be true, but then he was also competing against less talented players.
Last year, Wyoming were considered to have the second-worst ranking roster in the Mountain West. While that may seem to go in Allen’s favor, it could be said that a first-round QB talent could’ve done more to make up for it.

Lack of weapons

Allen also lost a number of his favorite weapons from his sophomore to his junior seasons. He lost his three best receivers, and his starting center and No.1 running back were lost to last year’s draft.

Those reasons likely contributed to the QB’s passer rating falling from 144.9 to 127.8 and his YPA declining by close to two yards.

Allen does possess the size and immense arm talent to be a star in the NFL, but whether his deficiencies can be coached up to the level expected of him will be a very tall order. One team will be likely be giving up their first-round pick to find out.