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2007-2008
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Overachievers and Underperformers

by Mike Mitchell
December 4, 2007

Each season, certain teams perform far better than expected. Others do much worse.

Of note, Cincinnati ranks 3rd on this year's list of Overachievers after ranking 10th on last season's chart of Underperformers.

Kent State and New Mexico State appear on the Underperformers top ten for the second consecutive season. The Golden Flashes topped the chart last year and rank 10th this season. The Aggies were 7th last year and 8th this season.

It should not surprise anyone that Louisville, Nebraska and Notre Dame each made the top ten list of Underperformers. That list also includes two teams that have already fired their head coaches (Nebraska and SMU), and three teams that were in their first season with new coaches (Louisville, Miami, and Minnesota).

Likewise, it should be expected that the top Overachievers include the likes of Kansas, Connecticut and UCF. Every team on that list is headed to a bowl game with the exception of North Carolina. The Tar Heels didn't win a lot of games, but played several teams much closer than anticipated.

Here is a look at the biggest Overachievers and Underperformers of 2007. The information was gleaned from comparing the power rating of each team in the preseason, to their actual power rating at the end of the regular season, according to the Congrove Computer Rankings (CCR Top 119).

TOP 10 OVERACHIEVERS:
Pos. Team Preseason
Power
Postseason
Power
Gain
1. Kansas 64.93 80.73 15.80
2. Air Force 53.90 66.87 12.97
3. Cincinnati 65.59 77.90 12.31
4. Illinois 60.18 70.62 10.44
5. Michigan State 59.47 69.89 10.42
6. Missouri 69.56 79.18 9.62
7. Connecticut 57.84 67.05 9.21
8. UCF 60.75 69.00 8.25
9. North Carolina 51.06 59.07 8.01
10. Colorado 56.03 63.09 7.06

TOP 10 UNDERPERFORMERS:
Pos. Team Preseason
Power
Postseason
Power
Loss
1. Northern Illinois 65.13 52.51 -12.62
2. Notre Dame 75.05 64.04 -11.01
3. SMU 66.88 56.22 -10.66
4. Louisville 83.52 74.02 -9.50
5. Louisiana-Lafayette 61.94 52.88 -9.06
6. Miami (Fla.) 72.49 63.70 -8.79
7. Nebraska 77.16 69.16 -8.00
8. New Mexico State 57.94 49.97 -7.97
9. Minnesota 66.33 58.56 -7.77
10. Kent State 60.63 52.91 -7.72


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