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12/3/09-12/5/09

FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/3-9/7
Week 2: 9/10-9/12
Week 3: 9/17-9/19
Week 4: 9/24-9/26		 Week 5: 9/30-10/3
Week 6: 10/6-10/10
Week 7: 10/13-10/17
Week 8: 10/21-10/24		 Week 9: 10/27-11/1
Week 10: 11/3-11/8
Week 11: 11/10-11/15
Week 12: 11/18-11/21		 Week 13: 11/24-11/28
Week 14: 12/3-12/5
Week 15: 12/12-12/12
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2009 Regular Season: 70-25 SU (.739), 45-50 ATS (.474)
Last Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 5-2 ATS (.714)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 1-5 ATS (.167)

Thursday, December 3
Oregon (-8) by 9.08 over Oregon State - These teams have split their last 10 meetings in the Civil War. This one is for a Rose Bowl bid. The Ducks have a habit of steamrolling teams in Autzen Stadium where they beat Cal, USC and Arizona State by an average of 30 points this season. The computer is 6-5 ATS with Oregon this season, 6-4 with the Beavers.
Oregon won 37-33. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Friday, September 4
Central Michigan (-12) by 14.41 over Ohio - The Chippewas are going for their third title in four years while Ohio is looking for its first since 1968. The Bobcats lost to Central Michigan 31-10 in the 2006 MAC championship game. CMU ranks 2nd in the MAC in total offense and total defense. Ohio ranks 9th and 5th, respectively, in those categories.
Central Michigan won 20-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, December 5
Georgia Tech (-1) by 2.38 over Clemson - Clemson is 2-3 away from home, including a 30-27 loss at Georgia Tech in week 2 of the season. The Yellow Jackets' 2nd-ranked rushing offense meets the 45th-ranked rushing defense of the Tigers.
Georgia Tech won 39-34. The computer won SU, won ATS.

BOISE STATE (-44) by 44.76 - Now, that's a big line. Boise State is 9-0 alltime vs. NMSU and has won the last two meetings 58-0 and 49-0. I generally avoid games with such whopping margins, but the computer is 7-4 ATS with NMSU and the Aggies lost by 43 at home to Nevada. New Mexico State ranks 120th in total offense while Boise State ranks 16th in defense. The Broncos are 9th in total offense while the Aggies are 99th in total defense. Boise State may hang 70 on the board this week.
Boise State won 42-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

California (-6) by 13.47 over WASHINGTON - It seems like the computer has undervalued Washington and the oddsmakers have overvalued the Huskies for much of the season. However, the computer is 8-2 ATS with California. Somewhere in the 9-point range sounds about right.
Washington won 42-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

CONNECTICUT (-7.5) by 8.41 over Usf - USF has been awful on the road this year against the top half of the Big East, losing 41-14 at Pitt and 31-0 at Rutgers. The computer is 7-3 ATS with the Huskies, 7-2 with the Bulls.
Connecticut won 29-27. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2009 Regular Season: 70-19 SU (.787), 48-41 ATS (.539)
Last Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 5-2 ATS (.714)
This Week: 1-0 SU (1.000), 0-1 ATS (.000)

Saturday, December 5
Wisconsin (-13) by 10.38 over HAWAII - You're tired from the trip, and then Hawaii makes you defend 60 throws. Hawaii ranks 3rd in pass offense while Wisconsin ranks 68th in pass defense. The computer is 6-4 ATS with the Badgers and 9-2 with the Warriors. The Badgers are 3-1 here, including a 17-point win on their last trip in 2005. Hawaii must pull off the upset to become bowl eligible. If it does, it would likely wind up facing former head coach June Jones and SMU in the Hawaii Bowl.
Wisconsin won 51-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2009 Regular Season: 29-46 SU (.387), 41-34 ATS (.547)
Last Week: 2-1 SU (.667), 2-1 ATS (.667)
This Week: 2-1 SU (.667), 2-1 ATS (.667)

Saturday, December 5
EAST CAROLINA by 0.18 over Houston (-1) - The computer is 10-2 SU with East Carolina, but just 7-5 with Houston. Cougar QB Case Keenum is the nation's total offense and passing leader, but the Pirates are 87th against the pass. Both of Houston's losses this season came on the road at UTEP and UCF. East Carolina's only loss this year was to Virginia Tech, 16-3.
East Carolina won 38-32. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Fresno State by 0.21 over ILLINOIS (-3) - The Fightin' Illini are 1-3 at home against FBS teams. The Bulldogs lost at Wisconsin by 3 in double-overtime in the second week of the season. Cincinnati beat Illinois by 13 and Fresno State by just 8. These teams have never met. The computer is 10-1 SU with the Bulldogs, 7-4 with the Illini.
Fresno State won 53-52. The computer won SU, won ATS.

RUTGERS by 2.31 over West Virginia (-2.5) - Rutgers is 4-30-2 alltime vs. West Virginia and all but 7 of those 36 meetings have occurred since 1980. The Scarlet Knights have lost 14 straight in the series, but this year's group boasts the top defense in the Big East. The computer is 8-3 SU with both schools.
West Virginia won 24-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.