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11/25/08-11/29/08


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 8/28-9/1
Week 2: 9/4-9/6
Week 3: 9/11-9/13
Week 4: 9/17-9/20
Week 5: 9/25-9/27
Week 6: 9/30-10/4
Week 7: 10/7-10/11
Week 8: 10/16-10/18
Week 9: 10/21-10/26
Week 10: 10/28-11/2
Week 11: 11/4-11/8
Week 12: 11/11-11/15
Week 13: 11/18-11/22
Week 14: 11/25-11/29
Week 15: 12/3-12/6
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2008 Regular Season: 75-22 SU (.773), 53-44 ATS (.546)
Last Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 6-1 ATS (.857)
This Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 1-5 ATS (.167)

Tuesday, November 25th
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-3) by 6.56 over Navy - Just the 3-point home field advantage is all NIU is getting in this game. Navy (6-4) has already accepted an EagleBank Bowl bid, while the Huskies (6-5) are looking to improve their stock with a 7th victory. The Midshipmen have struggled against two other MAC schools this year - a 35-23 loss at Ball State, and a 33-27 overtime win at home over Temple.
Navy won 16-0. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Friday, November 28th
TEMPLE (-3) by 6 over Akron - The computer is 7-4 ATS with Akron, 6-5 with Temple. The Owls are merely getting home field advantage. Six Temple games and 4 Akron games have been decided by 4 points or less, which justifies the close line. Additionally, each team has played two overtime games. Akron needs a win to become bowl eligible.
Temple won 27-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Lsu (-4.5) by 7.05 over ARKANSAS (at Little Rock) - This is only LSU's 4th trip away from home this year, and it just finished a five-game homestand. The Tigers are 1-2 in their previous SEC road games, beating South Carolina by 7 and Auburn by 5. The Bayou Bengals have issues but a 4.5-point margin over the last-place Razorbacks is difficult to shy away from. 6 of Arkansas' 11 games have been decided by 3 points or less, but they lost to Alabama, Texas, Florida and South Carolina by 13 points or more. The computer is a combined 10-10 ATS this season in games involving these schools.
Arkansas won 31-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

BUFFALO (-10) by 14.64 over Kent State - The computer is 8-3 ATS with the Bulls, 7-3 with the Golden Flashes. Kent State is 1-5 away from home with four losses by 15 points or more. The only exception was a win at Miami, Ohio. Buffalo is 5-1 in its' last six games, even though four of them - including the last two - have gone to overtime. The Bulls' last non-overtime wins were 32-19 at Ohio, and 37-17 vs. Miami (Ohio).
Kent State won 24-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 29th
TEXAS TECH (-20) by 23.17 over Baylor - Baylor has lost its' three Big 12 road games by an average of 21 points, including Oklahoma State by 28 and Texas by 24. The Red Raiders have won the last nine games over the Bears by an average of 35.22 points, and 25 points was the slimmest margin. Texas Tech has taken 12 straight going back to 1996, and only once was the margin under 21 points. The computer is 8-1 ATS with the Red Raiders, but just 4-6 with the Bears.
Texas Tech won 35-28. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

VIRGINIA TECH (-8) by 9.21 over Virginia - The computer is 7-3 ATS with the Hokies, 6-4 with the Cavaliers. Virginia Tech has won 4 straight in the series, and 8 of the last 9, with all of the victories coming by at least 12 points. Virginia Tech defensive coordinator, Bud Foster's young defense is 8th nationally in yards allowed per game, and 17th in points allowed. Don't be surprised if he gets a "head coach in waiting" contract if he's willing to wait at age 49. Head coach Frank Beamer is just 62.
Virginia Tech won 17-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 66-16 SU (.805), 42-40 ATS (.512)
Last Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 1-4 ATS (.200)
This Week: 7-1 SU (.875), 2-6 ATS (.250)

Tuesday, November 25th
BALL STATE (-11) by 9.25 over Western Michigan - The Broncos are 9-2 with their only losses coming at Nebraska (47-24) and Central Michigan (38-28). Both of these teams have wins this year over Big Ten schools - Ball State won 42-20 at Indiana, Western Michigan beat Illinois 23-17 in Detroit. Ball State clinches the MAC West with a win. Western Michigan claims the division title with a win over the Cardinals, but only if Central Michigan loses at Eastern Michigan on Friday.
Ball State won 45-22. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Thursday, November 27th
TEXAS (-35) by 33.92 over Texas A&M - The Aggies have taken the last two meetings. Texas has won by more than 35 points just three times since 1970 (1996, 1982, 1970). The 38-point margin in 1970 is its' largest in the series since a 48-0 win in 1898, so the oddsmakers are expecting a victory of historical proportion. Texas A&M is averaging 26.5 points per game, and at least 21 points in every game. If the Aggies manage that on Thursday, the Longhorns would have to score 57 or more points which they haven't done all year. The computer is just 4-7 ATS with each team.
Texas won 49-9. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Friday, November 28th
BOISE STATE (-20) by 16.79 over Fresno State - The computer is 7-3 ATS with Boise State which is coming off a 41-34 win at Nevada. In that game, two Nevada touchdowns were scored on interception returns. The Bronco defense yielded just 144 rushing yards to the WAC's top running team. Fresno State has righted a sinking ship with two straight wins, albeit over New Mexico State and San Jose State.
Boise State won 61-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NEBRASKA (-16.5) by 13.62 over Colorado - Last year's game was a 65-51 shootout won by Colorado. The teams have split the last eight meetings and the Buffaloes have taken two of the last three in Lincoln. Colorado needs a win to become bowl eligible. The computer is 5-5 ATS with Colorado, 7-4 with Nebraska. It is 10-1 SU with each team.
Nebraska won 40-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MISSISSIPPI (-13.5) by 11.19 over Mississippi State - The Egg Bowl is as close to a bowl game as the Bulldogs will get this year. The last two games have been decided by a field goal. The computer is 8-2 ATS with Mississippi State games this season.
Mississippi won 45-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 29th
ALABAMA (-14) by 13.80 over Auburn - Auburn has won six in-a-row, and needs to win this year just to become bowl eligible. Auburn is 6-0 in Tuscaloosa, including 4-0 since 2000 when the series was changed to home-and-home after years of being staged mostly in Birmingham. The game has been decided by more than 14 points just three times since 1980 and not since Alabama last won in 2001.
Alabama won 36-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Missouri (-14) by 10.25 over Kansas (at Kansas City) -
Kansas lost by 8 in Kansas City last year and has dropped two straight to the Tigers. Before that, the Jayhawks had won four in-a-row over the Tigers. This hasn't been the type of season that was expected of Kansas but the computer is still 9-2 SU, 5-5 ATS with the Jayhawks. It's 10-1 SU, 6-4 ATS with Missouri.
Kansas won 40-37. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

UTAH STATE (-6) by 4.28 over New Mexico State - It's the battle of the Aggies. New Mexico State Aggies' QB Chase Holbrook is 9th nationally in pass efficiency and yards. The Utah State Aggies' defense ranks 105th against the pass. The NMSU offense ranks 50th overall, and the Utah State defense ranks 107th overall. The computer is 7-4, 7-3 ATS with New Mexico State. It's 10-1 SU, 4-7 ATS with Utah State. Two of New Mexico State's three wins came on the road against UTEP and Nevada, but it's currently struggling through a 6-game losing streak. Both Utah State wins came at home over Idaho and Hawaii.
Utah State won 47-2. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2008 Regular Season: 36-48 SU (.429), 42-42 ATS (.500)
Last Week: 6-2 SU (.750), 6-2 ATS (.750)
This Week: 1-0 SU (1.000), 1-0 ATS (1.000)

Friday, November 28th
Ohio by 2.57 over MIAMI, OHIO (-1) - As with many of these "upset" games, it depends on where you look as to whether or not this classifies as such. Ohio is coming off a 49-42 win over Akron to snap a 3-game losing streak to Temple, Buffalo and Bowling Green. The Bobcats are 1-5 on the road, but Miami's only home win was over FCS member Charleston Southern. The RedHawks have lost four straight, and their win over Bowling Green is the only victory they have this season over a FBS school. The computer is 8-3 SU, 8-2 ATS with Miami. It is 9-2 SU, 9-1 ATS with Ohio.
Ohio won 41-26. The computer won SU, won ATS.




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