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11/23/10-11/27/10


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/2-9/6
Week 2: 9/9-9/11
Week 3: 9/16-9/18
Week 4: 9/23-9/25
Week 5: 9/30-10/2
Week 6: 10/5-10/9
Week 7: 10/13-10/16
Week 8: 10/21-10/23
Week 9: 10/26-10/30
Week 10: 11/2-11/6
Week 11: 11/9-11/13
Week 12: 11/16-11/20
Week 13: 11/23-11/27
Week 14: 12/2-12/4
Week 15: 12/11-12/11
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2010 Regular Season: 71-29 SU (.710), 49-51 ATS (490)
This Week: 5-4 SU (.556), 5-4 ATS (.556)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, November 26
ALABAMA (-3) by 11.66 over Auburn - The Tide was a 16.89-point pick in the preseason by the computer, but who really knew then that the Tigers had hit the jackpot with Cam Newton (or did Newton hit the jackpot with Auburn?). Question now is what will happen, and when, with the investigation into the pay-to-play allegations surrounding Newton. Auburn has the SEC's top offense but Alabama counters with the No. 2 defense. 'Bama also has the SEC's No. 4 offense while the Auburn defense ranks 8th.
Auburn won 28-27. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Boise State (-15) by 18.48 over NEVADA - Boise State has won 7 games this year by 35 or more points and the computer is 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS with the Broncos. I'm 5-0 SU with Boise State and 4-1 ATS.
Nevada won 34-31 in OT. The computer losts SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 27
ARKANSAS (-3) by 6.56 over Lsu - (at Little Rock) This is essentially a home game for Arkansas which has a passing offense that is 3rd in the nation and 1st in the SEC. The Bayou Bengals have a defense that ranks 4th in the nation and 1st in the SEC. The tipping point goes to these stats - LSU's offense only ranks 11th in the SEC while the Razorbacks defense ranks 5th.
Arkansas won 31-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

CALIFORNIA (-3) by 10.05 over Washington - Washington hasn't won an away game since the season opener at BYU. Cal needs a win to become bowl eligible. The Huskies have to beat the Golden Bears and Washington State to get to 6-6. The computer is 9-2 SU, 7-3 ATS with Cal. It's 6-4 SU and ATS with Washington.
Washington won 16-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

UCONN (-2.5) by 4 over Cincinnati - UConn has been on fire with 3 straight wins over West VIrginia, Pitt and Syracuse after a slow start. Cincinnati lost to the Orange by 24 and the Mountaineers by 27.
UConn won 38-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

PURDUE (-2) by 4.33 over Indiana - Purdue is getting less than homefield advantage from the oddsmakers in a matchup that's statistically even. The Boilermakers are 3-3 at home. Indiana's only away win came at Western Kentucky.
Indiana won 34-31 in OT. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

TENNESSEE (-3) by 5.40 over Kentucky - The Wildcats haven't won in Knoxville since 1984 and all of the losses have been by at least 4 points. The computer is 11-0 SU with the Vols and 10-1 with Kentucky. Tennessee has averaged 437 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play in its last 3 games.
Tennessee won 24-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Mississippi State (-1) by 3.85 over MISSISSIPPI - Ole Miss has the conference's worst scoring defense at 35.5 points per game. The Bulldogs allow just 20.1 to rank 3rd in the SEC. Mississippi State is 5-2 at home with losses to Auburn by 3 and Arkansas in double-overtime.
Mississippi State won 31-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Tcu (-43) by 45.28 over NEW MEXICO - TCU should cover at least half of this spread by the end of the 1st quarter. The Lobos rank 118th on offense and 117th on defense. The Horned Frogs boast the nation's top defense and 9th-ranked offense, and have this extra little incentive of a possible national title shot.
TCU won 66-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2010 Regular Season: 66-9 SU (.880), 33-42 ATS (.440)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 5-1 ATS (.833)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, November 26
OREGON (-20) by 17.95 over Arizona - The computer is 10-0 SU, 7-2 ATS with the Ducks. It's 7-3 SU, 6-3 ATS with Arizona. The last three meetings have all been decided by 10 points or less with Oregon winning the last two by 3 points last year and 10 points in '08. Oregon ranks 1st in the PAC-10 on both sides of the ball, but the Wildcats rank 3rd on both sides. Arizona's Nick Foles is the PAC-10's top passer at 275 yards per game.
Oregon won 48-29. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NEBRASKA (-24) by 19.77 over Colorado - The Buffaloes have won 2 straight since Brian Cabral replaced Dan Hawkins. The 'Huskers have scored just 26 total points in their last two games. The computer is 9-2 SU, 8-2 ATS with Nebraska. It's 7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS with Colorado.
Nebraska won 45-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 27
FRESNO STATE (-15) by 8.27 over Idaho - The computer's forecasted margin of victory in this game for the Bulldogs has dropped by a little over 2 points since the preseason. A win by the Vandals would make them bowl eligible and allow them to make back-to-back bowl appearances for the first time in school history.
Fresno State won 23-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NORTH CAROLINA (-14) by 11.60 over Duke - North Carolina has won 19 of the last 20 games, but each of the last 5 have been decided by 13 points or less. The computer is 8-2 ATS with Duke, 5-5 with UNC.
North Carolina won 24-19. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Uab (-4) by 0.75 over RICE - Rice has home wins over Houston and East Carolina in its last two home games, the latter of which was a 62-38 stomping of the Pirates last week.
Rice won 28-23. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

TROY (-14) by 13.08 over Western Kentucky - The Trojans top the Sun Belt in total offense, but are next-to-last in total defense. The Hilltoppers are 2nd on defense and next-to-last on offense. The advantage for WKU is its 4th-ranked rushing attack vs. Troy's 6th-ranked rushing defense.
Troy won 28-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2010 Regular Season: 24-47 SU (.338), 30-41 ATS (.423)
This Week: 2-6 SU (.250), 2-6 ATS (.250)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, November 25
Texas by 4.47 over Texas A&M (-4.5) - The computer shouldn't mess with Texas. It's been pounded by the Longhorns all year. The computer is 8-2 SU with the Aggies, and a not-so-surprising 4-7 SU with Texas. It's also a putrid 5-16 combined ATS with these teams. The Longhorns have the motivation to upset Texas A&M as they need a win just to become bowl eligible.
Texas A&M won 24-17. The computer won lost SU, lost ATS.

Friday, November 26
Buffalo by 3.34 over AKRON (-1) - The computer doesn't have faith in Akron to halt its 11-game losing streak, but the Bulls provide a good opportunity for the Zips to finally break through with a win. After all, Buffalo enters this game with a 2-9 record, 1-6 in the MAC. However, the Bulls did defeat Bowling Green (2-9, 106) on the road.
Arkon won 22-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Central Michigan by 1.33 over TOLEDO (-6) - It has been a disappointing season for CMU under first-year head coach Dan Enos. The Chippewas were a preseason projection to win the MAC, but are just 3-8. Meanwhile, Toledo was forecasted to go 3-9, but instead is bowl eligible at 7-4. Central Michigan was a 12.69-point preseason favorite by the computer. Now, the computer sets its margin of predicted victory at 1.33.
Toledo won 42-31. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Smu by 0.80 over EAST CAROLINA (-1) - The computer is 8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS with SMU. It's 6-5 SU and ATS with ECU. Both teams have overall records of 6-5 and conference marks of 5-2. The Pirates' problem is a porous defense that has allowed an average of 481.5 yards and 43.3 points per game. The Mustangs have only allowed an average of 358.9 yards and 26.2 points.
SMU won 45-38 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.

RUTGERS by 2.38 over Louisville (-1.5) - Rutgers allowed 69 points in a 69-38 loss at Cincinnati last week and has lost four straight games. The Cardinals have dropped back-to-back tight games at home to USF and West Virginia. The 'Ville must win this week to become bowl eligible. Rutgers has to win this week and next week (at West Virginia) or its 5-year bowl appearance streak will come to an end.
Louisville won 40-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 27
Florida by 1.54 over FLORIDA STATE (-3) - The computer had Florida as a 13.5-point favorite in the preseason and it now gives the Gators just a 1.54-point edge. The Gators have won 6 straight in the series to open up a 33-19-2 advantage overall. FSU's most important game this weekend is one in which it isn't even playing - it needs N.C. State to lose at Maryland so it can advance to the ACC Championship game against Virginia Tech. Florida state ranks 50th nationally on offense while Florida ranks 73rd. The Gators outrank the Seminoles on defense 10th to 43rd.
Florida State won 31-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

PENN STATE by 6.91 over Michigan State (-2) - The computer is 9-2 SU with the Spartans, 10-1 with the Nittany Lions. Michigan State has the higher-ranked offense and defense, but Penn State has won the last two meetings and 5 of the last 6. Penn State is 8-0 at home vs. the Spartans since joining the Big Ten in 1993. Penn State's last home loss to MSU came in 1965.
Michigan State won 28-22. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Oklahoma by 2.75 over OKLAHOMA STATE (-2.5) - The winner most likely clinches the Big 12 South title, even if Texas A&M wins at Texas. Oklahoma is 81-16-7 alltime vs. Oklahoma State and has won 7 in-a-row over its state rival. Make no mistake, though, that this is a loaded Cowboys team. Justin Blackmon is the nation's top receiver, Brandon Weeden is No. 2-ranked QB and Kendall Hunter is the No. 5 rusher. As a team, Oklahoma State ranks No. 1 in total offense, No. 3 in scoring offense and No. 2 in passing offense. Oklahoma is no slouch. The Sooners rank No. 4 in passing offense. Oklahoma's biggest problem is its inability to win on the road with any consistency. The Sooners are 2-5 at other teams' home venues over the last two seasons.
Oklahoma won 47-41. The computer won SU, won ATS.