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11/22/11-11/25/11


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/1-9/5
Week 2: 9/8-9/10
Week 3: 9/15-9/17
Week 4: 9/22-9/24
Week 5: 9/29-10/1
Week 6: 10/6-10/8
Week 7: 10/13-10/15
Week 8: 10/18-10/22
Week 9: 10/25-10/29
Week 10: 11/1-11/5
Week 11: 11/8-11/12
Week 12: 11/15-11/19
Week 13: 11/22-11/26
Week 14: 12/1-12/3
Week 15: 12/10-12/10
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 87-25 SU (.777), 61-51 ATS (.545)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 4-2 ATS (.667)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, November 25
WESTERN MICHIGAN (-28) by 29.56 over Akron - Akron is 0-5 on the road and 4 of those losses have been by at least 32 points. The computer is 6-4 ATS with both teams.
Western Michigan won 61-19. The computer won SU, won ATS.

USF (-3) by 7.63 over Louisville - USF needs a win to become bowl eligible while Louisville can clinch a share at least a share of the Big East with a victory over the Bulls. The computer is just 3-6 ATS with USF, but it is 6-4 with the 'Ville.
Louisville won 34-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS/

Saturday, November 26
SOUTH CAROLINA (-2.5) by 7.24 over Clemson - The computer is 10-1 SU with South Carolina and 7-4 with Clemson. It's also 7-3 ATS with the Gamecocks, but just 3-7 with the Tigers. South Carolina boasts the nation's 5th-ranked defense (Clemson ranks 56th) while Clemson owns the nation's 17th-ranked offense (South Carolina ranks 80th). However, N.C. State rolled 37-13 over the Tigers last week, despite having the nation's 99th-ranked offense.
South Carolina won 34-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Fiu (-10) by 12.02 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE - The Blue Raiders have lost each of their last 4 games by 24 points or more. FIU's 3rd-ranked (Sun Belt) scoring offense vs. MTSU's 8th-ranked scoring defense. MTSU's 5th-ranked scoring offense vs. FIU's top-ranked scoring defense.
FIU won 31-18. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MICHIGAN (-8.5) by 10.39 over Ohio State - Michigan has grown from a narrow 0.59-point preseason favorite to a 10.39-point computer choice now. The computer is 8-3 ATS on Buckeye games this season.
Michigan won 40-34. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

San Diego State (-14.5) by 19.45 over UNLV - UNLV ranks last in defense and next-to-last in offense in the Mountain West. RB Ronnie Hillman and QB Ryan Lindley are both probable for the Aztecs. Hillman ranks 5th nationally in rushing and Lindley ranks 2nd in the conference in passing yards per game.
San Diego State won 31-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.





HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 67-19 SU (.779), 40-46 ATS (.465)
This Week: 6-0 SU (1.000), 3-3 ATS (.500)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, November 25
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-20.5) by 17.26 over Eastern Michigan - The computer is 8-1 ATS on EMU games this year.
Northern Illinois won 18-12. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 26
BOISE STATE (-32.5) by 31.20 over Wyoming - The last 4 games for the Broncos have all been decided by 27 points or less and the Cowboys rank 4th in the MWC in scoring defense. The computer is 8-2 ATS with Boise State and 6-2 with Wyoming.
Boise State won 36-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Cincinnati (-4.5) by 4.34 over SYRACUSE - Without QB Zach Collaros under center, the Bearcats managed just 225 total yards and 3 points at Rutgers last week. Cincinnati hasn't thrown a TD pass since October 22.
Cincinnati won 30-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NORTH CAROLINA (-13) by 11.91 over Duke - Even though UNC has won 20 of the last 21 meetings and 7 in-a-row, but the last 6 have each been decided by 13 points or less.
North Carolina won 37-31. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

SOUTHERN MISS (-36) by 35.54 over Memphis - Aside from a 46-point win over FCS member SE Louisiana, USM's largest margin of victory is 28 points at Navy. The Golden Eagles also have two inexplicable losses - at Marshall, and more glaringly, last week at UAB. The computer is 8-2 ATS with Southern Miss games.
Southern Miss won 44-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

SMU (-15.5) by 13.33 over Rice - SMU has been held to 17 points or less in 4 of its last 5 games - Tulane is the lone exception. The computer is 7-3 ATS with the Mustangs and 6-5 with the Owls.
SMU won 27-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 24-36 SU (.400), 29-31 ATS (.483)
This Week: 0-2 SU (.000), 1-1 ATS (.500)
PAST RECORDS

Tuesday, November 22
Miami, Ohio by 0.61 over OHIO (-7) - The Bobcats have clinched the MAC East and the RedHawks would like to go out with a win to get to 5-7. Miami has lost its last two games to Temple and Western Michigan by identical 24-21 scores. The computer is 7-4 in predicting the winner of Miami games and 8-3 on Ohio games.
Ohio won 21-14. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Friday, November 25
TULSA by 1.21 over Houston (-4.5) - The computer is a perfect 11-0 in picking the outright winner of games involving each of these teams.
Houston won 48-16. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.