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11/20/07-11/24/07


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 4: 9/20-9/22
Week 5: 9/27-9/29
Week 6: 10/2-10/7
Week 7: 10/10-10/14
Week 8: 10/18-10/21
Week 9: 10/25-10/28
Week 10: 11/1-11/4
Week 11: 11/6-11/10
Week 12: 11/13-11/17
Week 13: 11/20-11/24
Week 14: 11/29-12/1
Week 15: Bowls
Archiving began in Week 4 in the 2007 Season.

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2007 Regular Season: 59-19 SU (.756), 39-39 ATS (.500)
Last Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 4-1 ATS (.800)
This Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 3-2 ATS (.600)

Friday, November 23rd
Central Michigan (-2.5) by 3.28 over AKRON -
The Zips have no offense, ranking dead last in the MAC and 111th in the nation. The Chippewas have a potent attack that ranks 28th nationally and averages over 33 points per game.
Central Michigan won 35-32. The computer won SU, won ATS.

COLORADO STATE (-3) by 4.71 over Wyoming - The computer is 8-3 SU, 6-4 ATS with the Rams. It is 8-3 SU and ATS with the Cowboys. CSU (9-2) has had an extremely disappointing year but has won 2 of its last five games. Wyoming has fallen into a slump with losses in 5 of its last 6 after starting the season 4-1, and has been outscored 85-10 in its last two games. This could be Sonny Lubick's (107-74 career) last game as head coach of the Rams, though the 70-year old says he wants to return for a 16th season. Seven of Colorado State's losses this year have come against teams with 6 or more wins, and at least seven of their opponents will go to bowl games. You can make a similar assessment of Wyoming's season, with San Diego State being the only inexplicable loss.
Colorado State won 36-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (-6.5) by 8.37 over Mississippi - The Bulldogs have victories over Auburn, Kentucky and Alabama. Ole Miss has only managed wins against Memphis, Louisiana Tech and FCS member Northwestern State (Louisiana). The computer is 11-0 SU on Rebels games this season, and it's 6-4 ATS with both schools.
Mississippi State won 17-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 24th
Clemson (-2.5) by 3.21 over SOUTH CAROLINA -
The spread on this game makes it practically a toss-up. The computer is a combined 19-3 SU with these teams. Statistically, the Tigers trump the Gamecocks on offense and defense. Last week's loss to Boston College snapped a four-game winning streak for Clemson during which it scored 191 points.
Clemson won 23-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Texas Christian (-10.5) by 16.24 over SAN DIEGO STATE - The computer is 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS with the Horned Frogs. It's 7-3 SU, 6-3 ATS with the Aztecs. The computer seems confident with this pick, going 6 points over the Vegas line.
TCU won 45-33. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2007 Regular Season: 59-13 SU (.819), 39-33 ATS (.542)
Last Week: 3-2 SU (.600), 3-2 ATS (.600)
This Week: 2-0 SU (1.000), 2-0 ATS (1.000)

Saturday, November 23rd
UCF (-18) by 14.90 over Texas-El Paso -
Until this past week's 56-30 home loss to Southern Miss, UTEP had not lost a game by more than 15 points. The Miners were within 12 points at 35-23 through three quarters, but folded like an old lawn chair in the fourth. UTEP ranks 27th nationally in total offense while UCF is 55th in total defense. However, the Miners rank 117th in total defense against the Golden Knights' 40th-ranked offense. UCF also sports the nation's 9th-leading rusher in Kevin Smith.
UCF won 36-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NORTH CAROLINA (-14) by 11.71 over Duke - Duke has lost each of its last four ACC games by at least 17 points, but those were against some of the conference's better teams - Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech.  The Tar Heels have two victories against FBS schools and both were by six points or less (Maryland, 16-13 and Miami, 33-27).
North Carolina won 20-14 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2007 Regular Season: 34-42 SU (.447), 42-34 ATS (.553)
Last Week: 1-2 SU (.333), 2-1 ATS (.667)
This Week: 3-2 SU (.600), 3-2 ATS (.600)

Friday, November 23rd
Boise State by 3.71 over HAWAII (-4) -
Given Boise State's history of dominance in the WAC, how can you go against them? The Broncos have won 17 straight WAC games and have a 46-1 record in WAC contests since 2002 (52-3 since the reformation of the WAC took place in 2001). The computer is 76-7 SU on Boise State games since 2001, and 68-3 since 2002. It's 32-3 SU on Hawaii on since 2005.
Hawaii won 39-27. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Nebraska by 6.44 over COLORADO (-5.5) - The winner becomes bowl eligible while the loser stays home and sulks. Nebraska's 11th-ranked passing offense goes against Colorado's 80th-ranked pass defense. That stat make this game sound like an easy pick for the 'Huskers. Unfortunately, Nebraska's defense ranks 111th over-all which means they can't stop much of anything. Nebraska is (minus) -14 in turnover margin, and Colorado's (minus) -7. The computer has a similar record with both schools this season - it's 7-4 SU on both teams, 6-5 ATS with Nebraska, 5-6 ATS with Colorado. The Cornhuskers have won the last two meetings 37-14 and 30-3.
Colorado won 65-51. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 24th
Utah State by 1.1 over IDAHO (-2) -
The computer is 11-0 SU on Idaho this season, 8-3 on Utah State. That's a pretty easy feat - just pick 'em both to lose every week and you'll do okay. The problem this week is that they are playing each other so something has to give. Utah State enters this contest off of a surprisingly comfortable 35-17 win at New Mexico State to end a 16-game losing streak. Idaho has lost 15 straight games to FBS opponents since October 14 of last year when it knocked off Louisiana Tech 24-14.
Utah State won 24-19. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Maryland by 6.82 over N.C. STATE (-1.5) - To the victor go the spoils - a trip to the not-so-tropical paradise of Boise, Idaho in the dead of winter. The Wolfpack was on a 3-game winning streak until last week's 38-18 loss to Wake Forest. N.C. State is the only ACC team, thus far, to defeat Virginia. Maryland has lost four of its last five games, but upset Boston College two weeks ago. The computer is 8-3 SU, 6-4 ATS with the Wolfpack, bout only 6-5 SU and 3-7 ATS with the Terps.
Maryland won 37-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Notre Dame by 2.14 over STANFORD (-3) - These teams have a combined record of 5-16 with Notre Dame coming in at 2-9 and Stanford at 3-7. The Cardinal has the more-impressive wins, knocking off USC and Arizona but has gone back in the toilet the last three weeks with big losses to Washington, Washington State and Oregon State. The computer is 7-3 SU with Stanford and 6-5 with Notre Dame.
Notre Dame won 21-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.