Friday, November 19
BOISE STATE (-30) by 32.71 over Fresno State - The computer is 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS with Broncos games this year. It's 6-3, 4-4 with the Bulldogs. Boise State has won 6 games this year by 35 or more points, including a 42-7 win over Hawaii. Fresno State lost to Hawaii 49-27.
Boise State won 51-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Saturday, November 20
Arkansas (-5) by 6.51 over MISSISSIPPI STATE - The Bulldogs are beset with the nation's 79th-best pass defense which may not bode well at all against Arkansas' No. 3 pass offense. Overall, the Razorbacks rank 7th offensively while Mississippi State ranks 43rd defensively. Meanwhile, Arkansas' 31st-ranked defense goes against the Bulldogs' 64th-ranked offense.
Arkansas won 38-31 in 2 OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Clemson (-14.5) by 15.29 over WAKE FOREST - Wake has lost five games this year by at least 31 points. The computer is 9-1 SU, 5-4 ATS with the Tigers. It's 10-0, 4-5 with the Demon Deacons. Clemson needs 1 more win to become bowl eligible and hosts South Carolina next week.
Clemson won 30-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.
GEORGIA TECH (-9) by 17.08 over Duke - Duke ranks 11th in the ACC in rushing while Georgia Tech ranks last in the league, by far, in passing. The Blue Devils rank 10th in rushing defense while the Yellow Jackets rank 4th in pass defense. The computer is 7-2 ATS with the Ramblin' Wreck but just 2-7 with the Dukies. Georgia Tech needs 1 more win to become bowl eligible.
Georgia Tech won 30-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.
TEXAS (-21) by 25.10 over Fau - FAU has lost by 21 at Arkansas State and 28 at USF. Surely, the Longhorns can beat an average Sun Belt team by more than 21, and they better or they have no chance of becoming bowl eligible. It doesn't help to look at stats as they team are nowhere near the same level in competition. Texas has faced the nation's 15th-toughest schedule while the Owls have played the No. 110 schedule.
Texas won 51-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Florida State (-3) by 5.66 over MARYLAND - Florida State enjoys a slim statistical advantage but a huge historical edge as the 'Noles have won 18 of the 20 games ever played in the series. Both losses, however, did come at Maryland in '04 and '06 and the Terps are hosting this game. The computer is 5-4 ATS with both teams.
Florida State won 30-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Oklahoma State (-18) by 21.28 over KANSAS - Really? Just 18 for the Vegas spread? The Cowboys top the Big 12 in passing offense and the Jayhawks rank 8th defensively. Even worse Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden tops the nation in passing, Justin Blackmon is 1st in receiving and Kendall Hunter is 4th in rushing. Kansas has lost at home to Kansas State by 52 and Texas A&M by 35.
Oklahoma State won 48-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Nebraska (-2.5) by 3.31 over TEXAS A&M - The computer is 9-1 SU, 8-1 ATS with the Cornhuskers. Otherwise, this pick scares me.
Texas A&M won 9-6. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Wisconsin (-7) by 10.89 over MICHIGAN - Denard Robinson has become inconsistent and turnover-proned, slowing Michigan's best offensive threat. Wisconsin ranks 3rd in the Big 10 on both sides of the ball. Michigan ranks 1st in offense, but last in defense.
Wisconsin won 48-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Tennessee (-9.5) by 10.77 over VANDERBILT - Tennessee picked up its first SEC win under head coach Derek Dooley with last week's 52-14 thumping of Ole Miss. Vanderbilt heads to Knoxville for this state rivalry game riding a 5-game streak of losses that were all by 14 points or more in which it has been outscored by a cumulative 206-55.
Tennessee won 24-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.