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11/12/13-11/16/13


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2012 Regular Season: 94-27 SU (.777), 67-54 ATS (.554)
2013 Regular Season: 89-10 SU (.899), 64-35 ATS (.646)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 4-2 ATS (.667)
PAST RECORDS

Tuesday, November 12
BOWLING GREEN (-7.5) by 9.86 over Ohio - The Falcons are No. 1 in the conference in total defense and 3rd in total offense. Ohio ranks 5th on offense and 3rd on defense but are coming off a 30-3 loss at Buffalo. BGSU was an 8.58-point preseason favorite and the computer's trend line has now topped 11 in favor of the Falcons.
Bowling Green won 49-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 16
ARIZONA (-12.5) by 16.30 over Washington State - The Cougars have lost 3 straight games by at least 24 points.
Washington Satte won 24-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Central Michigan (-2.5) by 7.30 over WESTERN MICHIGAN - The Chippewas are 3-6 but actually have a good chance of finishing 6-6 with home games against UMass and Eastern Michigan following this week's match with the Broncos in Kalamazoo. WMU is just 1-9 after this past weekend's overtime loss to an Eastern Michigan team that had fired its head coach the day before the contest.
Central Michigan won 27-22. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Fau (-14) by 18.82 over SOUTHERN MISS - The computer trend line is nearly 30 in favor of the visiting Owls. Southern Miss is riding a 21-game losing streak.
FAU won 41-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

UTEP (-6) by 12.47 over Fiu - The trend line is now more than 14 after the Miners were preseason favorites by just over 10.
UTEP won 33-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

VIRGINIA TECH (-13.5) by 20.87 over Maryland - Maryland opened the year with three 500-yard offensive games against weaklings FIU, Old Dominion (FBS transition year) and UConn, and added a 468-yard outburst against a 2-8 UVa squad. Versus its other 5 opponents, the Terps averaged only 320 yards per game which would place them next-to-last in the ACC. The Virginia Tech defense has allowed an average of only 263 yards per game.
Maryland won 27-24 in OT> The computer lost SU, lost ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2012 Regular Season: 52-17 SU (.754), 42-27 ATS (.609)
2013 Regular Season: 59-9 SU (.868), 33-35 ATS (.485)
This Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 2-3 ATS (.400)
PAST RECORDS

Wednesday, November 13
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-5.5) by 4.20 over Ball State - Ball State's lone loss came against a 7-3 North Texas team while unbeaten NIU has wins over Iowa and Purdue from the Big 10. The computer hasn't liked the Huskies by more than 4.94 points in this game all season. Northern Illinois is 1st in the MAC on total offense end 6th on defense. The Cardinals rank 2nd on offense and 7th on defense.
Northern Illinois won 48-27. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

KENT STATE (-18.5) by 17.58 over Miami, Ohio - It has been a terrible year for the Golden Flashes who were projected to top the division by Sports Illustrated and CollegeFootballPoll.com, and finish 2nd by The Sporting News. Instead, Kent State has dropped 5 straight and beaten only Liberty and Western Michigan (1-9) and has seen their power rating decline from 76.23 to 62.35 since the preseason. Kent hasn't scored more than 32 points in game all year and averages just 18.1. The RedHawks have the nation's worst scoring offense at 10 points per game and have tallied no more than 17 in any game. The computer's trend line on this game is around 12.
Kent State won 24-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Thursday, November 14
CLEMSON (-10) by 4.75 over Georgia Tech - The computer had the Tigers winning this game by 4.95 in the preseason so it really hasn't budged much at all. The Yellow Jackets have rebounded to win 3 straight after dropping 3 in-a-row to Virginia Tech, Miami and BYU. Clemson has won 2 of the last 3 meetings, but GT has taken 5 of the last 7, including the 2009 ACC Championship game. Georgia Tech owns the series 50-26-2, but it's only been 16-15 since 1980.
Clemson won 55-31. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 16
LOUISVILLE (-16.5) by 11.41 over Houston - The Cougars were just a few yards away from winning at UCF this past weekend and lost 19-14 as 10-point underdogs while the computer put that game at 6.84 with a trend line of 5. The trend line on this game is about 6.5. The all-time series is tied at 7 though the 'Ville has dominated of late with wins in 5 of the last 6 confrontations, but they haven't met since 2004.
Louisville won 20-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MISSISSIPPI (-28) by 21.46 over Troy - Not only is the computer margin nearly a full TD under the line, but the trend line only comes in at about 17. Troy features QB Corey Robinson, a 4-year starter and national leader in passing yards among current QB's with 13,086 yards and 80 TD's.
Mississippi won 51-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2012 Regular Season: 36-50 SU (.419), 42-44 ATS (.488)
2013 Regular Season: 38-37 SU (.507), 48-27 ATS (.640)
This Week: 0-2 SU (.000), 0-2 ATS (.000)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, November 16
Georgia by 0.65 over AUBURN (-3) - Georgia was a preseason computer favorite to win the SEC and play in the BCS Championship game but Mark Richt's group has been dogged, or should I say, dawged, by injuries - leading receiver Chris Conley (ankle) has missed the past two games while tight end Arthur Lynch (ribs) sat against Appalachian State only to see backup Jay Rome (foot) injure his foot. RB Keith Marshall, and WR receivers Malcolm Mitchell and Justin Scott-Wesley were lost for the season, and starting RB Todd Gurley and wide receiver Michael Bennett have each missed chunks of time. Lynch and Conley may return this week, but there are still a lot of holes to fill. Georgia was an 18.29-point pick in the preseason, but comes in at 6.11 points under its preseason power rating while Auburn has added 13.72 power points. That gives Auburn a computer trend line of almost 17 points.
Auburn won 43-38. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

NORTHWESTERN by 1.15 over Michigan (-1) - Michigan was installed as a 1-point favorite by the oddsmakers, but quickly moved to a 2-1/2-point underdog. The computer liked the Wildcats by 10.47 in the preseason and results on the field have shaved over 9 points off that advantage. Northwestern has lost 5 straight - the last on a Hail Mary vs. Nebraska - after opening with 4 straight wins and playing Ohio State to the wire in the 5th game of the season. A blowout 35-6 loss at Wisconsin followed and the 'Cats downfall has snowballed from there - a 3-point setback at home to Minnesota, followed by an overtime defeat at Iowa and the Hail Mary vs. the 'Huskers. No wonder the computer's trend line is now Michigan by just over 8.
Michigan won 27-19 in 3 OT's. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.


ODDS/PICKS
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