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11/11/08-11/15/08


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 8/28-9/1
Week 2: 9/4-9/6
Week 3: 9/11-9/13
Week 4: 9/17-9/20
Week 5: 9/25-9/27
Week 6: 9/30-10/4
Week 7: 10/7-10/11
Week 8: 10/16-10/18
Week 9: 10/21-10/26
Week 10: 10/28-11/2
Week 11: 11/4-11/8
Week 12: 11/11-11/15
Week 13: 11/18-11/22
Week 14: 11/25-11/29
Week 15: 12/3-12/6
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2008 Regular Season: 65-19 SU (.774), 46-38 ATS (.548)
Last Week: 7-2 SU (.778), 6-3 ATS (.667)
This Week: 6-2 SU (.750), 6-2 ATS (.750)

Wednesday, November 12th
Temple (-2.5) by 5.08 over KENT STATE - The computer has hit 74% ATS with games involving MAC East teams.
Kent State won 41-38. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Friday, November 14th

Cincinnati (-3) by 7.19 over LOUISVILLE - The Bearcats control their own destiny to the Big East title while the Cardinals are floundering near the bottom. Louisville is coming off a 41-7 beatdown at Pitt, and a bad loss at Syracuse before that. Cincy has beaten Rutgers, USF and West Virginia in three of its' last four games.
Cincinnati won 28-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 15th
Byu (-4) by 5.29 over AIR FORCE - The Cougars have won four straight in the series by no fewer than 17 points.
BYU won 38-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

OREGON (-3.5) by 7.35 over ARIZONA -
Arizona has won the last two meeting after Oregon had taken 7 straight, and 11 of 12. The "experts" are only allowing for home field advantage.
Oregon won 55-45. The computer won SU, won ATS.

OREGON STATE (-3) by 5.82 over California - The Beavers are 4-0 at home. The Golden Bears are 1-3 on the road with the only win coming at hapless Washington State.
Oregon State won 34-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

FLORIDA (-21) by 23.49 over South Carolina -
Steve Spurrier faces his former team in Gainesville. Don't expect the Gators to experience a letdown just because the SEC Eastern division title is secured. Florida is vying for a BCS title game, and has outscored each of its' last five opponents by at least 28 points. Keep this in mind, though - Spurrier is 1-2 against the Gators, but 1-0 in Gainesville.
Florida won 56-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Tulsa (-5.5) by 6.53 over HOUSTON - Tulsa is 8-1 overall, the computer is 8-1 in picking its' games, and the Golden Hurricane victories have all come by 6 points or more. Tulsa won last year's meeting 56-7.
Houston won 70-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

UTEP (-10) by 13.62 over Smu - SMU is 0-5 on the road with four losses by 14 points or more.
UTEP won 36-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 54-15 SU (.783), 39-30 ATS (.565)
Last Week: 3-2 SU (.600), 4-1 ATS (.800)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 3-3 ATS (.500)

Saturday, November 15th
Georgia (-8) by 6.95 over AUBURN - Auburn is 3-2 at home against FBS teams with no losses by more than 5 points. The Bulldogs have surrendered 125 points in their last three games.
Georgia won 17-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Boise State (-34) by 33.42 over IDAHO - The spread would constitute the largest margin of victory for Boise State in this series for a game played at Idaho and not a neutral, or home, site.
Boise State won 45-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

FLORIDA STATE (-7) by 3.68 over Boston College -
The Seminoles are 4-2 all-time against the Eagles, but lost the last meeting at home 24-19 in 2006. Both teams rank in the top ten in total defense and B.C. is coming off a 17-0 shutout of Notre Dame. Florida State's offense could be impacted by the suspensions of five wide receivers who were involved in an on-campus brawl on Wednesday and will not play in this game.
Boston College won 27-17. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

MISSISSIPPI (-21) by 11.20 over Louisiana-Monroe - The Warhawks lost to Arkansas by 1 point this season, defeated Alabama last season, and lost to Kentucky by 2 in 2006. They won't be intimidated at Oxford. The computer projection is almost 10 full points under the line.
Mississippi won 59-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

LSU (-19.5) 11.57 over Troy - The computer is 7-1 ATS with Troy, 5-3 with LSU. The numbers present an 8-point disparity between the oddsmakers and the computer.
LSU won 40-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Ucla (-7.5) by 6.11 over WASHINGTON - Former Washington head coach Rick Neuheisel returns to ye olde stomping grounds to face his former team and lame-duck head coach Tyrone Willingham. The Bruins are 0-3 on the road while being outscored 131-44. The matchup should provide some much needed incentive for the Huskies.
UCLA won 27-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2008 Regular Season: 29-46 SU (.387), 35-40 ATS (.467)
Last Week: 0-1 SU (.000), 0-1 ATS (.000)
This Week: 3-4 SU (.429), 4-3 ATS (.571)

Wednesday, November 12th
Central Michigan by 0.79 over NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-3) - The Chippewas are on a 5-game winning streak, including a win at Indiana in their last outing on November 1. A win keeps CMU in the hunt for the MAC West title and sets up a showdown with undefeated Ball State at home next week. The Huskies are 4-0 against a weak slate of home opponents, but also have narrow road losses to Minnesota, Western Michigan and Tennessee. However, NIU was blasted 45-14 at Ball State last week. The computer is 8-1 SU with both teams.
Central Michigan won 33-30 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Thursday, November 13th
Buffalo by 2.37 over AKRON (-2.5) - The computer won with Buffalo last week when the Bulls were a 7-point favorite at home against Miami (Ohio) and won by 20 (the computer had Buffalo by 11.31). The computer is 9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS with the Zips. It is 7-2 SU and ATS with the Bulls.
Buffalo won 43-40 in 4 OT's. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Virginia Tech by 2.20 over MIAMI, FLA. (-4) -
Virginia Tech has won four of the last five meetings, and the last two in Miami. The Hokies control their destiny to the ACC's Coastal division title. The computer is 8-1 SU, 6-2 ATS on Virginia Tech games this year. It's 72-20 SU, 58-29 ATS with the Hokies since 2001.
Miami won 16-14. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 15th

New Mexico by 10.30 over COLORADO STATE (-1) - This game presents one of the largest disparities I have ever seen between the established line and the computer's projection. New Mexico has been horribly disappointing this season, needing a win to finish 5-7 after the computer forecasted a 10-2 campaign in the preseason. Still, the computer is 6-5 ATS with the Lobos, and 9-1 SU with Colorado State.
Colorado State won 20-6. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

East Carolina by 0.34 over SOUTHERN MISS (-1.5) - The Pirates were the leading candidate to break-in to a BCS bowl after they knocked off Virginia Tech and West Virginia in their first two games of the season. Since then, ECU has gone 4-3 and need overtime to win its' last two games. Southern Miss, under first-year head coach Larry Fedora, has wins over UAB and UCF after losing five in-a-row. The Golden Eagles must win their last two games to finish 6-6 and have any shot at a bowl bid. Right now, only three teams have qualified for the postseason - East Carolina, Rice and Tulsa.
Southern Miss won 21-3. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

FAU by 8.16 over Louisiana-Lafayette (-2.5) - FAU was the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt but finds themselves two games behind the Ragin' Cajuns who have yet to lose a conference game. Still, the Owls will claim the conference title if they win their last three conference games and Troy loses one. FAU leads the brief series 2-1.
FAU won 40-29. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WESTERN KENTUCKY by 1.19 over Middle Tennessee (-3) - The Hilltoppers are still looking for their first win of the year over an FBS team. WKU is 0-3 vs. Sun Belt teams. MTSU has lost six straight road games, including 0-5 this year.
Middle Tennessee won 21-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.




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