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11/5/13-11/9/13


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2012 Regular Season: 94-27 SU (.777), 67-54 ATS (.554)
2013 Regular Season: 85-8 SU (.914), 60-33 ATS (.645)
This Week: 4-0 SU (1.000), 3-1 ATS (.750)
PAST RECORDS

Tuesday, November 5
Bowling Green (-17) by 20.85 over MIAMI (O.) - The computer's forecasted margin in this game has grown by 6.77 points since the preseason. The trend puts BGSU in front by around 27. The Falcons are 3rd in the MAC in offense while Miami ranks last. And Bowling Green is 1st in defense while Miami ranks next-to-last.
Bowling Green won 45-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Friday, November 8
NEW MEXICO (-1.5) by 4.61 over Air Force - Overall, these are two of the statistically worst teams in the Mountain West on both sides of the ball, but I'm going with the Lobos based on home field advantage alone. The AFA has lost its last 6 true road games and is 1-9 in its last 10 games away from home.
New Mexico won 45-37. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 9
CINCINNATI (-7) by 12.09 over Smu - SMU's only road win this year came at Memphis and that was by just 5 points. The Bearcats have won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 to improve to 6-2 while the Mustangs enter at 3-3.
Cincinnati won 28-25. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NORTH TEXAS (-21) by 25.71 over Utep - The Mean Green was only getting 18.25 points worth of love from the computer in the preseason, but that has ballooned to over 25 points, putting the trend line at more than 33. The Miners have lost their last 2 road games - Rice and Texas A&M - by 38 and 50.
North Texas won 41-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2012 Regular Season: 52-17 SU (.754), 42-27 ATS (.609)
2013 Regular Season: 54-9 SU (.857), 31-32 ATS (.492)
This Week: 3-0 SU (1.000), 1-2 ATS (.333)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, November 9
WISCONSIN (-7.5) by 3.48 over Byu - The Badgers were the slightest of underdogs in the preseason (-0.03) and are now favored by a narrow 3.48. The Cougars are on a 5-game winning streak.
Wisconsin won 27-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Fresno State (-14) by 10.87 over WYOMING - This game has stayed in the range of 10-11 points all season. It features two of the MWC's best offenses and a couple of bottom-30 defenses. The Bulldogs only won by 5 at Hawaii and by 7 two weeks at San Diego State in overtime.
Fresno State won 48-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

UCF (-10) by 6.84 over Houston - The computer liked UCF by 8.68 in the preseason, and even less now. UCF has won 3-of-4 in the series but only the 2006 matchup was decided by more than 7 points and that was a 20-point win by the Cougars. Ironically, every game these teams have ever played has taken place between October 28 and November 9.
UCF won 19-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2012 Regular Season: 36-50 SU (.419), 42-44 ATS (.488)
2013 Regular Season: 38-35 SU (.521), 48-25 ATS (.658)
This Week: 1-2 SU (.333), 1-2 ATS (.333)
PAST RECORDS

Tuesday, November 5
Ohio by 0.04 over BUFFALO (-3) - Ohio was favored by 2.43 in the preseason, so the trend has actually worked its way toward Buffalo to win by about 2. Either way, these are two of the better teams in the MAC with identical 6-2 overall records and the winner gets the upper hand in the MAC east divisional race. The Bulls are 4-0 in MAC play while the Bobcats are 3-1. Bowling Green is also 3-1 entering this week and the Falcons host Ohio next Tuesday while Buffalo plays Bowling Green in the final regular season game.
Buffalo won 30-3. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 9
ARIZONA by 1.68 over Ucla (-2.5) - The computer projected this as a 4.14-point win for the Wildcats in the preseason and now says the margin is only 1.68. This is only Arizona's third home game of the year against a school in the FBS. The 'Cats statistically out-rank the Bruins on both sides of the ball.
UCLA won 31-26. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Syracuse by 4.98 over MARYLAND (-3) - Maryland was favored by 9.07 in the preseason and the computer spread has dropped to 4.98, putting the trend line for this game at just 0.89 points for the Terps. The Orange are coming off a 13-0 shutout of Wake and Wake beat Maryland 34-10. I'm not much for using transitive property to predict games, but this sounds, looks and smells like a Syracuse win all the way.
Syracuse won 20-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.


ODDS/PICKS
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