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11/1/12-11/3/12


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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 90-26 SU (.776), 63-53 ATS (.543)
2012 Regular Season: 67-19 SU (.761), 48-38 ATS (.558)
This Week: 10-1 SU (.909), 9-2 ATS (.818)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, November 1
Virginia Tech (-2) by 8.73 over MIAMI - The 'Canes rank last in the ACC in total defense and scoring defense, allowing 499 yards and 32.4 points per game.
Miami won 30-12. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 3
CINCINNATI (-7) by 12.62 points over Syracuse - Cincinnati has won 6 of the last 7 meetings, and its last 5 wins in the series have been by 14 points or more.
Cincinnati won 35-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

LOUISVILLE (-13) by 15.49 over Temple - The Owls have lost to Rutgers and Pitt by 25 and 30 in their last two games and Louisville is the class of the league.
Louisville won 45-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Michigan (-12) by 19.51 over MINNESOTA - Michigan is 4-0 SU and ATS vs. Minnesota in the last 4 meetings.
Michigan won 35-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Texas A&M (-2.5) by 6.84 over MISSISSIPPI STATE - The computer picked the Bulldogs to be 6-1 through their first 7 games before finishing 7-5. The Aggies have the 5th-ranked offense nationally and top the SEC.
Texas A&M won 38-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

FLORIDA (-16) by 16.14 over Missouri - The Gators were only favored by 7.80 in the preseason and have added over 8 points to that projection. Missouri has lost to Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama by at least 21 points.
Florida won 14-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Stanford (-28) by 31.84 over COLORADO - Colorado is 0-3 at home and has lost each of its last 4 games by 28, 34, 44 and 56.
Stanford won 48-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

UTAH (-12) by 18.16 over Washington State - The disparity between the line and the computer is too great to pass up. The computer is 6-1 ATS with games involving Wazzu but just 2-5 on games involving the Utes.
Utah won 49-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

San Jose State (-16.5) by 18.47 over IDAHO - SJSU ranks 39th on offense and 32 on defense. Idaho ranks 114th and 122nd in those categories, respectively.
San Jose State won 42-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Arkansas State (-3) by 4.54 over NORTH TEXAS - The Congrove Computer Rankings has the Red Wolves moving from a 0.46-point favorite in the preseason to a 4.54-point favorite now.
Arkansas State won 37-19. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Clemson (-14.5) by 14.65 over DUKE - Every Clemson win this season, except Furman, has been a wider margin than the computer projected.
Clemson won 56-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 67-19 SU (.779), 40-46 ATS (.465)
2012 Regular Season: 44-11 SU (.800), 31-24 ATS (.564)
This Week: 3-1 SU (.750), 2-2 ATS (.500)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, November 1
OHIO (-17) by 11.68 over Eastern Michigan - Other than New Mexico State and Norfolk State, all of Ohio's wins have been by 10 points or less and five of their games (won or lost) have been decided by 7 points or less.
Ohio won 45-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 3
BUFFALO (-3) by 2.65 over Miami, Ohio - The Bulls have lost 5 straight MAC games and 8 of their last 9 with the only win coming vs. Akron last year.
Buffalo won 27-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Oklahoma (-13) by 12.67 over IOWA STATE - The Sooners computer advantage has shrunk by 3 points since the preseason. The computer is 5-2 ATS with the Cyclones and 4-2 with Oklahoma.
Oklahoma won 35-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Iowa (-3) by 1.64 over INDIANA - Iowa has lost 9 points in the computer on this matchup since the preseason. The momentum heavily favors Indiana which outranks the Hawkeyes 37th to 104th on offense. However, Iowa outranks Indiana 39th to 95th on defense.
Indiana won 24-21. The computer lost SU, won ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 24-37 SU (.393), 29-32 ATS (.475)
2012 Regular Season: 31-36 SU (.463), 35-32 ATS (.522)
This Week: 1-2 SU (.333), 1-2 ATS (.333)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, November 3
Boston College by 1.36 over WAKE FOREST (-4) - Wake ended a 5-game losing streak to the Eagles last year, but BC upset Maryland 20-17 last week to halt a 5-game skid. The Demon Deacons have lost three of their last four after opening the season 3-1. The computer is 6-2 SU with both teams.
Wake Forest won 28-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Nebraska by 0.46 over MICHIGAN STATE (-1) - This would mean a 4th straight loss at home for the Spartans who are 0-6 all-time vs. the Cornhuskers, losing by an average of 34.2 to 6.2. Nebraska won last year's meeting 24-3.
Nebraska won 28-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

PURDUE by 2.60 over Penn State (-2.5) - This would surprise me as Purdue ranks next-to-last in the Big Ten in defense and has yet to win a conference game (0-4), though the Boilermakers did take Ohio State into overtime which is better than the Nittany Lions fared against the Buckeyes.
Penn State won 34-9. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.


ODDS/PICKS
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