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10/27/09-11/1/09


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/3-9/7
Week 2: 9/10-9/12
Week 3: 9/17-9/19
Week 4: 9/24-9/26
Week 5: 9/30-10/3
Week 6: 10/6-10/10
Week 7: 10/13-10/17
Week 8: 10/21-10/24
Week 9: 10/27-11/1
Week 10: 11/3-11/8
Week 11: 11/10-11/15
Week 12: 11/18-11/21
Week 13: 11/24-11/28
Week 14: 12/3-12/5
Week 15: 12/12-12/12
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2009 Regular Season: 44-17 SU (.721), 31-30 ATS (.508)
Last Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 3-3 ATS (.500)
This Week: 3-1 SU (.750), 1-3 ATS (.250)

Saturday, October 31
Mississippi (-3) by 7 over AUBURN - The Ole Miss offense has started clicking and ranks 5th in the SEC while the Auburn defense ranks next-to-last. The Auburn offense ranks 2nd, but the Rebels' defense ranks 5th. Warning! - the computer is just 1-5 ATS this year on Ole Miss games. However, it is 5-3 ATS with the Tigers.
Auburn won 33-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Cincinnati (-16) by 20.80 over SYRACUSE - Cincinnati has won its last 3 games by at least 17 points. The Bearcats rank 1st in the Big East in total offense while the Orange rank last. Cincinnati ranks 4th in defense while Syracuse ranks 7th. The computer is 6-1 ATS with the Bearcats, 3-3 with the Orange.
Cincinnati won 28-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

FLORIDA STATE (-7) by 13.79 over N.C. State - The Wolfpack have lost their last 2 games to Duke and Boston College by an average of 26.5 points. The 'Noles rank 1st in total offense in the ACC, but last in total defense. Since former N.C. State head coach Chuck Amato rejoined FSU, the Seminoles have won both meetings by at least 9 points.
Florida State won 45-42. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

OKLAHOMA (-26) by 34.48 over Kansas State - Kansas State is winless on the road and lost by 52 at Texas Tech in its last away outing. Oklahoma hasn't had any real competition at home and the computer doesn't think this game will alter that comment.
Oklahoma won 42-30. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2009 Regular Season: 46-10 SU (.821), 28-28 ATS (.500)
Last Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 5-2 ATS (.714)
This Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 4-3 ATS (.571)

Saturday, October 31
CONNECTICUT (-7) by 3.23 over Rutgers - UConn's opening day win over Ohio (5-3) stands as the only victory for either school over a FBS team with a winning record. Rutgers has the conference's top defense while UConn ranks 4th on offense.
Rutgers won 28-24. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

HOUSTON (-9) by 5.73 over Southern Miss - Houston's 112th-ranked defense should allow this game to stay close. Cougar QB Case Keenum leads the nation in passing yards per game but faces CUSA's top pass defense.
Houston won 50-43. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TROY (-17) by 13.07 over Louisiana-Monroe - These teams have split the last four meetings and the WarHawks won 31-30 last year at Monroe.
Troy won 42-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

LSU (-38) by 35.03 over Tulane - LSU has owned this series, going 45-4-2 since 1949, but a 49-7 win in 2006 is the only time LSU won by 38+ in the last 35 meetings.
LSU won 42-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Miami, Fla. (-6.5) by 3.85 over WAKE FOREST - The Demon Deacons have only lost 1 home game by 7 points or more in the last 2-1/2 seasons. Wake Forest hasn't defeated Miami since 1944 but they have only met 5 times since then. The 'Canes won 16-10 last year in Miami.
Miami won 28-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Notre Dame (-31) by 22.33 over Washington State (at Arlington, Texas) - The computer line has increased 1.97 points in Notre Dame's favor since the preseason, and is still nearly 9 points under the spread. Both teams rank in the bottom 24 of all 120 FBS teams on defense. Notre Dame's advantage is on offense where it ranks 15th compared to WSU at 112.
Notre Dame won 40-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WISCONSIN (-7.5) by 7.06 over Purdue - The Badgers have dropped 2 straight while the Boilermakers have won 2 in-a-row. Purdue has a slight statistical advantage on offense while Wisconsin has the edge on defense. 4 of Purdue's 5 losses have been by 7 points or less.
Wisconsin won 37-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2009 Regular Season: 18-37 SU (.327), 28-27 ATS (.509)
Last Week: 1-3 SU (.250), 2-2 ATS (.500)
This Week: 1-4 SU (.200), 3-2 ATS (.600)

Saturday, October 31
BALL STATE by 0.95 over Ohio (-7) - I would have scoffed at this "upset" pick before last week's Bobcat loss at home to Kent State. The Cardinals are coming off their first win of the season, albeit a 2-point victory at winless Eastern Michigan.
Ohio won 20-17. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Central Michigan by 0.51 over BOSTON COLLEGE (-3) - The Chippewas are on a 7-game winning streak that started with an amazing comeback at Michigan State. They rank 18th nationally in scoring offense and 15th in scoring defense. The Eagles are 93rd in scoring offense and 37th in scoring defense.
Boston College won 31-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Middle Tennessee by 0.86 over FAU (-1.5) - Middle Tennessee dropped 62 on helpless Western Kentucky last week. FAU dropped 51 on the Ragin' Cajuns at Lafayette. The computer is 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS on Blue Raiders games. It's just 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS on Owls games.
Middle Tennessee won 27-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Louisiana Tech by 8.79 over IDAHO (-3.5) - La. Tech was an upset 23-21 loser at Utah State last week while Idaho lost a 70-45 offensive shootout at Nevada. The Vandals' offense has relied on the passing game for nearly 65% of their offense. The Bulldogs' pass defense is tops in the conference.
Idaho won 35-34. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Western Michigan by 0.30 over KENT STATE (-1) - Bronco QB Tim Hiller is 10th nationally in passing yards per game and has 15 TD passes and 7 INT's. Over the last 3 games, he has 7 TD passes and just 1 INT. Kent ranks 73rd in passing yards allowed per game but has 10 INT's to just 9 TD's allowed. WMU won the last two meetings by a cumulative 86-14, though they haven't met since 2005.
Kent State won 26-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.