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10/18/07-10/21/07


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 4: 9/20-9/22
Week 5: 9/27-9/29
Week 6: 10/2-10/7
Week 7: 10/10-10/14
Week 8: 10/18-10/21
Week 9: 10/25-10/28
Week 10: 11/1-11/4
Week 11: 11/6-11/10
Week 12: 11/13-11/17
Week 13: 11/20-11/24
Week 14: 11/29-12/1
Week 15: Bowls
Archiving began in Week 4 in the 2007 Season.

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2007 Regular Season: 40-11 SU (.784), 25-26 ATS (.490)
Last Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 3-4 ATS (.429)
This Week: 2-5 SU (.286), 0-7 ATS (.000)

Thursday, October 18th
TCU (-3.5) by 5.52 over Utah -
The Horned Frogs getting 3-1/2 points at home is too difficult to pass up. The computer is 4-3 ATS this season with TCU, but it's a terrific 47-26 with the Frogs since 2001.
Utah won 27-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, October 20th
KENT STATE (-5) 7.18 over Bowling Green -
BGSU lost 47-14 last week at Miami, which was almost as bad as Kent State's 48-3 loss at Ohio State. The Golden Flashes hosted Miami two weeks ago and only lost by 7 points. Kent State tops the MAC defensively, while Bowling Green ranks 11th in the 13-team conference.
Bowling Green won 31-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Cincinnati (-10) by 12.70 over PITTSBURGH - Cincinnati looks to recover from last week's home loss to Louisville by pounding the pitiful Panthers at Pittsburgh. However, Pitt won last year's game at Cincy 33-15. The Panthers rank 7th in the 8-team Big East in total offense. They are negative-9 in turnovers compared to Cincinnati's +11.
Pittsburgh won 24-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

EAST CAROLINA (-5) by 12.36 over N.C. State - The Wolfpack has yet to defeat a FBS school under first-year head coach Tom O'Brien.
N. C. State won 34-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Oklahoma (-29.5) by 34.78 over IOWA STATE - The Cyclones fell at home 56-3 to Texas last week and the Sooners have a better offense. Iowa State hasn't scored more than 17 points against anyone, other than Toledo, all year. A modest score, like 45-14, covers this.
Oklahoma won 17-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

MARYLAND (-4) by 7.17 over Virginia - Virginia could easily have four more losses right now. The Cavaliers have defeated Connecticut by 1 point, North Carolina and Middle Tennessee by 2 points, and Georgia Tech by 5 points. The only true quality win was Georgia Tech and that was at home. On the road, UVa lost to Wyoming and barely survived UNC and MTSU.
Virginia won 18-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

OHIO STATE (-17) by 22.08 over Michigan State - The Ohio State defense is holding opponents to just 211 yards and 6.6 points per game, while allowing more than 7 points just once all year.
Ohio State won 24-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2007 Regular Season: 37-9 SU (.804), 25-21 ATS (.543)
Last Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 5-2 ATS (.714)
This Week: 4-0 SU (1.000), 0-4 ATS (.000)

Friday, October 19th
Northwestern (-10) by 4.91 over Eastern Michigan (at Detroit) -
Northwestern's only double-digit win this season was against FCS member Northeastern in the opening game.
Northwestern won 26-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, October 20th
CLEMSON (-17) by 9.22 over Central Michigan - The computer is 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS with Clemson this year and that's the only reason I'm listing this here. For the record, the computer is 4-3 SU, 3-3 ATS with CMU.
Clemson won 70-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

FRESNO STATE (-12) by 9.32 over San Jose State - The Bulldogs' biggest win this year was by 13 at Idaho. They defeated Louisiana Tech by 11 (17-6) in their only home game this season against a FBS school.
Fresno State won 30-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Southern California (-18.5) by 14.30 over NOTRE DAME -
Evan Sharpley will start at QB for the Irish, the third different QB to start a game for Charlie Weis this year. His first-game starter, Demetrius Jones, left the school when he was demoted prior to the game at Michigan. Sharpley has led the Irish on four of their seven scoring drives, despite playing back-up. At press time of this article, USC quarterback John David Booty was still hampered by his broken finger and may have to yield again to Mark Sanchez. The Trojans have won the last five meetings by a combined score of 208-92. The last game played in South Bend in 2005 resulted in a narrow, last-minute 34-31 win for USC. Matt Leinart, initially stacked up short of the goal-line, rolled off the pile and, with a friendly shove from teammate Reggie Bush, fell into the endzone for the game-winner with 3 ticks left on the clock.
USC won 38-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, every projected upset is listed.
2007 Regular Season: 25-28 SU (.472), 30-23 ATS (.566)
Last Week: 7-3 SU (.700), 8-2 ATS (.800)
This Week: 3-5 SU (.375), 3-5 ATS (.375)

Thursday, October 18th
RUTGERS by 0.66 over South Florida (-2.5) -
South Florida is ranked 2nd in the inaugural BCS Standings for 2007.  The Bulls are 6-0 and on an 8-game winning streak, tied for the longest in the nation with Boston College and Hawaii. And yet, this is only South Florida's second Big East game of the season. In their only conference game to-date, USF beat West Virginia at home. This will be the school's biggest road trip of the year, but the Bulls already proved they can win a big game on the road when they grabbed an overtime victory at Auburn. The Scarlet Knights are off to a disappointing 4-2 start, 1-1 in the Big East, and must win this week to have a realistic shot at the conference title.
Rutgers won 30-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 20th
Tennessee by 3.47 over ALABAMA (-1) - The Tide is dead-even with Auburn and LSU in the SEC West with a 3-1 conference mark. Since Auburn and LSU are playing each other, Alabama must win to stay tied for first. In the SEC East, the Volunteers are a 1/2-game behind South Carolina, and tied with Kentucky, with a 2-1 mark. If Florida (2-2) beats Kentucky, Tennessee could move into sole possessions of 2nd with a win over 'Bama. The last three games have been decided by 3, 3, and 4 points. And the 2003 game needed five overtimes before Tennessee prevailed 51-43 at Alabama.
Alabama won 41-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

WESTERN MICHIGAN by 5.86 over Ball State (-1) - Ball State tops the conference in total offense, WMU ranks 4th. In total defense, only 8 yards per game separate the two teams with the Cardinals holding the very slight advantage. The Broncos need to win the rest of their games to come close to their preseason projection of a 9-3 finish and MAC West title.
Ball State won 27-23. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Buffalo by 0.24 over SYRACUSE (-4) - This computer pick indicates how far the Orange have fallen, and how much Buffalo has improved. The Bulls have already won 3 conference games this year. They needed almost three full seasons to win their previous three conference games.
Syracuse won 20-12. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Colorado State by 1.42 over UNLV (-2.5) - These two teams currently sit at the bottom of the Mountain West standings. CSU has three losses by six points or less, but was blown out 45-21 at home by Air Force last week in their worst performance of the year. UNLV has been very unpredictable as they've defeated Utah 27-0 at home, but barely got past lowly Utah State.
Colorado State won 48-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Texas Tech by 0.98 over MISSOURI (-3.5) - Turnovers killed Missouri when the Tigers were knocked from the unbeaten ranks by Oklahoma, 41-31, last week. The Sooners outscored Missouri 18-7 in the final quarter aided by Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel's fumble that was returned 12 yards for a touchdown, and an interception that set the Sooners up for a 24-yard touchdown drive. This game features the nation's first- and fifth-ranked offenses with Texas Tech topping the charts at 582 yards per game. The Red Raiders also have the edge on defense, ranking 39th compared to Missouri's 78th-place ranking.
Missouri won 41-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Ohio by 0.54 over TOLEDO (-1) - Ohio is tied for last in the MAC East. Toledo is next-to-last in the MAC West. Both schools had far greater expectations entering the season. Toledo has allowed at least 34 points in every game, and ranks 117th nationally in scoring defense. The Bobcats rank 75th in that category but have allowed 34 points or more just twice.
Toledo won 43-40. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

UCLA (-1.08) over California (-2) - Cal QB Nate Longshore is to be a game-time decision. Kevin Riley will start again if Longshore can't go. Pat Cowan is expected to start at QB for UCLA. Cowan suffered a knee injury in his start against Washington on September 22 and hasn't played since then. The home team has won the last seven meetings in the series.
UCLA won 30-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.