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10/07/08-10/11/08


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 8/28-9/1
Week 2: 9/4-9/6
Week 3: 9/11-9/13
Week 4: 9/17-9/20
Week 5: 9/25-9/27
Week 6: 9/30-10/4
Week 7: 10/7-10/11
Week 8: 10/16-10/18
Week 9: 10/21-10/26
Week 10: 10/28-11/2
Week 11: 11/4-11/8
Week 12: 11/11-11/15
Week 13: 11/18-11/22
Week 14: 11/25-11/29
Week 15: 12/3-12/6
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
PAST RECORDS:
2008 Regular Season: 37-9 SU (.804), 25-21 ATS (.543)
Last Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 6-1 ATS (.857)
This Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 5-0 ATS (1.000)

Friday, October 10th
Louisville (-6.5) by 7.47 over MEMPHIS - The Tigers barely won at UAB last week, the no. 115 team in the CCR Top 120.
Louisville won 35-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 11th
Bowling Green (-2) by 3.29 over AKRON - The computer is 4-1 ATS with BGSU, and 4-2 with the Zips.
Bowling Green won 37-33. The computer won SU, won ATS.

KANSAS (-14) by 19.55 over Colorado - The computer likes the Jayhawks by nearly 6 more points that the Vegas experts. It's a combined 9-1 SU with these teams, and 4-4 ATS. Kansas has won the last two meetings by just five points after losing the previous five.
Kansas won 30-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

HAWAII (-7) by 12.01 over Louisiana Tech - Hawaii has won all three home meetings by 11 points or more.
Hawaii won 24-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Ohio (-2) by 6.08 over KENT STATE - The computer is 5-0 ATS with the Bobcats, and 4-1 with the Golden Flashes.
Ohio won 26-19. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 33-9 SU (.786), 23-19 ATS (.548)
Last Week: 7-1 SU (.875), 4-4 ATS (.500)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 2-4 ATS (.333)

Thursday, October 9th HOUSTON (-19) by 15.59 over Uab - The Blazers only lost by 13 at South Carolina and almost upset Memphis last week. Houston posted a stunning 17-point win at East Carolina in its' last outing (Sept. 27), giving the Cougars their first victory this season over a FBS team. The computer is 4-1 ATS with UAB, and 2-2 with the Cougars.
Houston won 45-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, October 11th
USC (-25.5) by 22.41 over Arizona State - USC has won all 8 meetings this decade, but only twice by more than 21 points. It is possible that the QB's for this game will be Mitch Mustain for USC and Danny Sullivan for ASU. Rudy Carpenter suffered an ankle sprain in the Sun Devils' loss at Cal, and Mark Sanchez endured a bone bruise to his left knee in the win over Oregon. Carpenter has started 32 consecutive games for Arizona State.
USC won 28-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

GEORGIA (-13) by 11.42 over Tennessee - The Vols have won the last two meetings in Athens, and three of the last four overall.
Georgia won 26-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Oklahoma (-7) by 0.57 over Texas (at Dallas) -The Sooners won last year after the Longhorns had claimed the two previous meetings. One of these teams has played in the Big 12 championship game every year since 1999 with Texas making three trips while Oklahoma has made six. The computer's preseason forecast gave Texas the edge by 0.03 points, but now favors the Sooners by all of 0.57 points.
Texas won 45-35. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Penn State (-5) by 1.69 over WISCONSIN - The Badgers have suffered back-to-back losses at home by a total of 5 points. I smell the distinct possibility of an upset. If Penn State wins, the Nittany Lions will be in great shape to take the Big 10 title as the only serious road block would appear to be their trip to Ohio State.
Penn State won 48-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

SAN JOSE STATE (-16) by 8 over Utah State - The last five meetings have all been decided by 7 points or less, including 7-point and 2-point home wins by the Spartans.
San Jose State won 30-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2008 Regular Season: 16-21 SU (.432), 18-19 ATS (.486)
Last Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 4-2 ATS (.667)
This Week: 1-4 SU (.200), 1-4 ATS (.200)

Saturday, October 4th
Eastern Michigan by 3.91 over ARMY (-1.5) - Who knows what will happen here. Army was awful through their first three games, but the last two outings have a produced a 21-17 loss at Texas A&M and a 44-13 win at Tulane. Eastern Michigan had been a consistent underperformer this year until last week's upset win at Bowling Green.
Army won 17-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Middle Tennessee by 2.41 over FIU (-1) - FIU returns home after routing Toledo 35-16, and North Texas 42-10 on the road. In its previous three games against Kansas, Iowa and USF, the Golden Panthers scored a total of 19 points. Middle Tennessee's last outing produced a last-second home win over Sun Belt title favorite FAU.
FIU won 31-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

INDIANA by 0.53 over Iowa (-5.5) - Both teams are on 3-game losing streaks. As a comparison, Iowa lost at Michigan State by 3, and the Hoosiers lost to the Spartan by 13 at home. Unfortunately, such common opponent comparisons don't seem to be a very reliable predictor of a head-to-head result. It's hard to argue that taking the home team isn't a safe bet.
Iowa won 45-9. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

TEXAS A&M by 0.71 over Kansas State (-3.5) - The Aggies were an 8-1/2-point favorite in the preseason so the trend is definitely moving in Kansas State's direction. Both teams are coming off huge losses - the Aggies fell 56-38 at Oklahoma State, and the Wildcats were stomped 58-28 at home by Texas Tech.
Kansas State won 44-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

MISSISSIPPI STATE by 2.82 over Vanderbilt (-2) - The Commodores are the only SEC Eastern Division team that has yet to suffer a setback this season. Vandy is already three wins ahead of the computer's preseason 2-10. The computer labels the 'Dores as a 2.82-point underdog this week, but that's an improvement of more than 8 points over the preseason forecast of an 11.17-point loss. The teams haven't met since 2004 when Vandy won 31-13 in Nashville. The 'Dores have lost five straight in Starkville where they last tasted victory in 1971.
Mississippi State won 17-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.