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10/02/07-10/07/07


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 4: 9/20-9/22
Week 5: 9/27-9/29
Week 6: 10/2-10/7
Week 7: 10/10-10/14
Week 8: 10/18-10/21
Week 9: 10/25-10/28
Week 10: 11/1-11/4
Week 11: 11/6-11/10
Week 12: 11/13-11/17
Week 13: 11/20-11/24
Week 14: 11/29-12/1
Week 15: Bowls
Archiving began in Week 4 in the 2007 Season.

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2007 Regular Season: 33-4 SU (.892), 22-15 ATS (.595)
Last Week: 4-1 SU (.800), 2-3 ATS (.400)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 4-2 ATS (.667)

Saturday, October 6th
OREGON STATE (-4) by 4.22 over Arizona - Arizona lost its first two road games by 13 (at BYU) and 18 (at California). The Beavers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings with the Wildcats.
Oregon State won 31-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.

AUBURN (7.5) by 15.36 over Vanderbilt - Let's not forget that Auburn has not only beaten Florida in "The Swamp", but also defeated the same Kansas State team by 10 points that just finished winning at Texas by 20. Yes, Vanderbilt is a decent team but 7-1/2 at home is a pretty good deal. The Commodores have lost 12 straight to Auburn and have never won at Auburn where they have played just 7 times.
Auburn won 35-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Wake Forest (-7) by 18.75 over DUKE - The Blue Devils have been competitive in each of their last four games, beating Northwestern by 3 and losing the others by no more than 11 points. The Demon Deacons have won 7 straight over Duke, including the last two games in Durham by 38 and 29 points, respectively.
Wake Forest won 41-36. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
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NEVADA (-3.5) by 5.70 over Fresno State - The Wolf Pack are a 3.5-point pick at home against a team that has won just one of its last nine road games.
Fresno State won 49-41. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

SAN JOSE STATE (-6.5) by 11.54 over Idaho -
San Jose State is playing just its second home game after opening with four straight road games.
San Jose State won 28-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

PENN STATE (-8) by 11.66 over Iowa - Penn State returns home to lick its wounds after two consecutive road losses spoiled a 3-0 start. The teams haven't met since 2004 when Iowa won by the baseball score of 6-4 in Happy Valley. The Hawkeyes have won five straight in the series,a nd six of the last seven. The Nittany Lions won the first four games between these teams after they joined the Big Ten in 1993.
Penn State won 27-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2007 Regular Season: 28-6 SU (.824), 19-15 ATS (.559)
Last Week: 4-1 SU (.800), 2-3 ATS (.400)
This Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 6-1 ATS (.857)

Saturday, October 6th
HAWAII (-40) by 30.36 over Utah State - The Warriors beat the Aggies 50-23 on their last visit to the islands two years ago. Other than a 51-point loss at Oklahoma three weeks ago, Utah State has been playing respectably despite being winless.
Hawaii won 52-37. The computer won SU, won ATS.

INDIANA (-13) by 4.55 over Minnesota -
The Golden Gophers lost at home to Purdue by 14 and Ohio State by 23. Indiana's wins have come against mostly suspect teams, including last week's 38-20 win at Iowa which also lost to Iowa State after the Cyclones fell to Northern Iowa. This is a significant disagreement in the spread between the oddsmakers and the computer which forecasted Minnesota's loss at FAU.
Indiana won 40-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Virginia (-10.5) by 6.26 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE -
Virginia's first two road trips resulted in a 20-point loss at Wyoming and a 2-point win at North Carolina. The computer has held the line on this game in the 6-1/2-point range since preseason.
Virginia won 23-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (-17.5) by 15.05 over Uab -
The Blazers only lost by 10 at Florida State, and 8 at Tulsa. Mississippi State without QB Josh Riddell tore an ACL in Saturday's loss at South Carolina and is out for the season.
Mississippi State won 30-13. The computrer won SU, won ATS.

UCLA (-20.5) by 17.65 over Notre Dame - The Fighting Irish beat the spread at Purdue last week. Look for them to do it again at UCLA this week.
Notre Dame won 20-6. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Oklahoma (-11) by 8.53 over Texas (at Dallas) - The computer is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in Red River Rivalry games since 2001.
Oklahoma won 28-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

USC (-39.5) by 38.18 over Stanford -
This is a big cover. USC's largest margin of victory, thus far, is 33. Stanford is coming off of its biggest loss, by 38, at home against Arizona State and that still wouldn't cover this spread. The Cardinal lost 42-0 last year at USC, and 51-21 at Stanford two years ago. The loss of QB T.C. Ostrander adds to Stanford woe's. The Cardinal will also be without RB Toby Gerhart for the fourth straight game due to a knee injury.
Stanford won 24-23. The computer lost SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2007 Regular Season: 15-20 SU (.429), 19-16 ATS (.543)
Last Week: 2-2 SU (.500), 2-2 ATS (.500)
This Week: 2-3 SU (.400), 3-2 ATS (.600)

Saturday, October 6th
EAST CAROLINA 1.73 over Central Florida (-3.5) - The Pirates are coming off of a big road win at Houston. UCF has gotten fat off easy home games with Memphis and Louisiana-Lafayette. The road team has won each of the two meetings between these teams since they became CUSA foes. East Carolina has a 2-1 advantage over UCF since the Golden Knights became a FBS program, and has taken 5-of-6 meetings over-all.
East Carolina won 52-38. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Virginia Tech 0.53 over CLEMSON (-4.5) - The Hokies still haven't had a game where the offense clicked but true freshman quarterback Tyrod Taylor has the them making far fewer offensive mistakes. The defense has allowed just two touchdowns since getting thrown around like rag dolls by LSU in the second week of the season. Of course, the opponents have been a pretty week group (Ohio, William & Mary, North Carolina). Clemson has a win over a mediocre Florida State, and a loss at Georgia Tech. Otherwise, the Tigers have defeated softies in La.-Monroe (0-4), Furman (FCS), and N.C. State (1-4). Virginia Tech has taken four straight over Clemson since 1998 when the series resumed after an 8-year hiatus. This, however, is only their second meeting as ACC foes.
Virginia Tech won 41-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Wisconsin 8.68 over ILLINOIS (-2) - Suddenly, the Fighting Illini are a factor in the Big Ten race as something more than just a spoiler - they are actually a contender. A home win over the Badgers would make them 3-0 in the conference, and 5-1 over-all. Wisconsin has won 14 straight, tops in the nation currently, and Bret Bielema is 17-1 as head coach. Wisconsin has taken four straight from Illinois.
Illinois won 31-26. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Nebraska by 2.58 over MISSOURI (-7) - Neither can afford an early conference loss when the Big 12 north is vastly improved from top to bottom. The home team has won the last five meetings in this series.
Missouri won 41-6. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Tcu 8.44 over WYOMING (-3.5) - TCU has taken both meetings since the schools became MWC rivals. Wyoming won the only pre-MWC game in 1998. Statistical rankings would appear to favor the Cowboys in this one. Wyoming ranks 4th in total defense while the Horned Frogs rank 40th. The Cowboys rank 66th offensively while TCU ranks 88th.
Wyoming won 24-21. The computer lost SU, won ATS.



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