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9/30/10-10/2/10


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/2-9/6
Week 2: 9/9-9/11
Week 3: 9/16-9/18
Week 4: 9/23-9/25
Week 5: 9/30-10/2
Week 6: 10/5-10/9
Week 7: 10/13-10/16
Week 8: 10/21-10/23
Week 9: 10/26-10/30
Week 10: 11/2-11/6
Week 11: 11/9-11/13
Week 12: 11/16-11/20
Week 13: 11/23-11/27
Week 14: 12/2-12/4
Week 15: 12/11-12/11
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2010 Regular Season: 25-13 SU (.658), 15-23 ATS (.395)
This Week: 2-4 SU (.333), 0-6 ATS (.000)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, September 30
OKLAHOMA STATE (-3) by 8.28 over Texas A&M - Oklahoma State has won 2 straight in the series after losing 4 in-a-row from 2004-2007. Both teams are coming off of a bye week. The computer is 3-0 SU and ATS with the Cowboys. It is 3-0 SU and 1-1 ATS with the Aggies.
Oklahoma State won 38-35. The computer won SU, lost ATS (we don't recognize tie picks).

Friday, October 1
Byu (-8) by 10.35 over UTAH STATE- BYU's 3 straight losses have come against teams that the computer currently ranks 14th (Nevada), 30th (Florida State) and 32nd (Air Force). Utah State is ranked 101st. The Cougars have won the last three games in the series by no less than 18 points and as much as 38. BYU has won 20 of the last 21 meetings, and only 4 of those wins were by less than 9 points. Despite Utah State's 2009 hiring of Utah defensive coordinator Gary Andersen as head coach, the Aggies still surrendered 408 points last season after giving up 416 in 2008 and 406 in 2007. Utah State is on pace to give up 390 this year and currently ranks 88th in total defense.
Utah State won 31-16. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, October 2
Georgia (-2) by 8.56 over COLORADO - I just can't fathom Georgia dropping to 1-4. The Bulldogs are already off to their worst start since 1993. Despite the bad start, the computer's spread for Georgia in this game has actually increased to 8.56 from 7.84 in the preseason.
Colorado won 29-27. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Texas Tech (-4.5) by 10.89 over IOWA STATE - The computer is 3-0 ATS with Texas Tech and 2-1 with Iowa State. The teams haven't met since 2007, but the Red Raiders have won three straight in the series by at least 16 points.
Iowa State won 52-38. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Wisconsin (-1.5) by 5.56 over MICHIGAN STATE - The Badgers have won 6 of the last 9 meetings overall, but Michigan State has defended its turf in the last two home meetings and 9 of the last 12. Wisconsin ranks 16th in total defense and 13th in total offense. The Spartans rank 21st on offense, but 51st on defense. Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio is back in the hospital after the discovery on Thursday of a blood clot in his leg. He was expected to be in the coaches' booth for this game. Dantonio continues to recover from the heart attack he suffered hours after the victory over Notre Dame in which he called for a fake field goal in overtime.
Michigan State won 34-24. The computer lost SU, lost AST.

Northwestern (-4) by 5.67 over MINNESOTA - This is the final game in a 4-game homestand during which the Golden Gophers have already lost to FCS member South Dakota and the MAC's Northern Illinois. Northwestern is 4-0 and currently ranked 25th by the computer.
Northwestern won 29-28. The computer won SU, lost ATS.




HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2010 Regular Season: 29-2 SU (.935), 14-17 ATS (.452)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 2-4 ATS (.333)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 2
AUBURN (-30) by 26.60 over Louisiana-Monroe - The computer is a combined 7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS with these schools in 2010. The bad news for the Warhawks is that the Tigers have won the last four meetings by a cumulative score of 190-21.
Auburn won 52-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NORTH CAROLINA (-17) by 15.65 over East Carolina - These teams have met 11 times with North Carolina winning 9, but they have only met four times since a UNC 56-0 win in 1981. The Tar Heels are 3-1 in the last four meetings with the Pirates with no wins by more than 14 points.
North Carolina won 42-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

USF (-20) by 17.38 over Fau - The computer is 3-0 ATS with the Owls, but 0-2 with the Bulls due to overestimating their strength in both losses.
USF won 31-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Michigan (-10.5) by 6.73 over INDIANA - The Hoosiers rank 11th in passing offense while Michigan ranks 105th in pass defense. Michigan is 2-8 in road games under Rich Rodriguez with the only wins coming at Minnesota in 2008 and Notre Dame in the final 27 seconds this year. Michigan has won 16 straight over Indiana and is 31-1 in the last 32 games in the series, but the Wolverines won last year's game by just 3 (36-33) in Ann Arbor.
Michigan won 42-35. The computer won SU, won ATS.

IOWA (-7) by 4.10 over Penn State - The Hawkeyes have won the last three meetings at home, but only one of those victories was by more than 6 points (26-14, 2003). Overall, Iowa is 3-7 at home vs. the Nittany Lions.
Iowa won 24-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

USC (-11.5) by 7.40 over Washington - Three of the last four games in this series have been decided by 6 points or less, and the Trojans lost 16-13 at Washington last year in Steve Sarkisian's first season as head coach. Sarkisian, of course, was a USC assistant for seven seasons between 2001 and 2008. The Huskies' 27 wins over the Trojans are the 4th-most of any team in USC's football history.
Washington won 31-29. The computer lost SU, won ATS.




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2010 Regular Season: 9-14 SU (.391), 11-12 ATS (.478)
This Week: 3-4 SU (.429), 3-4 ATS (.429)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 2
ARKANSAS STATE by 2.09 over Louisville (-6.5) - The computer is 21-9 on the year against the spread in games involving Sun Belt teams, but is just 7-12 ATS with Big East teams. However, the computer is a combined 7-0 straight up with these teams.
Louisville won 34-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

BOSTON COLLEGE by 4.85 over Notre Dame (-1.5) - Notre Dame ended a 6-game losing streak to Boston College with last year's 20-16 win in South Bend. Both schools are coming off big home losses as the Irish fell 37-14 to Stanford and the Eagles were blanked 19-0 by Virginia Tech. Notre Dame is on a 3-game losing streak and ranked 86th by the computer. The computer is a combined 6-1 SU, 5-1 ATS with these teams.
Notre Dame won 31-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Idaho by 4.96 over WESTERN MICHIGAN (-2) - Idaho opened as a 2-point underdog but the line quickly swung in favor of the Vandals. The computer is 0-2 ATS with Idaho, 2-1 with Western Michigan. It is a combined 5-2 SU with both teams.
Idaho won 33-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Kent State by 2.72 over MIAMI, O. (-1.5) - This game opened with Miami favored by as much as 2 points, depending on your source. The Golden Flashes were a consensus 3-point favorite by late Tuesday night. The computer is a combined 7-0 SU with these teams.
Miami (O.) won 27-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Louisiana-Lafayette by 0.25 over NORTH TEXAS (-3) - The computer is a combined 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS with these teams. The Mean Green appear to have the statistical advantage as they rank 70th in defense and 64th on offense, while Louisiana ranks 96th on defense and 98th on offense.
Louisiana-Lafayette won 28-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Texas by 3.70 over Oklahoma (-4) (at Dallas) - This pick is a bit of a surprise after Texas' shocking home loss to UCLA, but Oklahoma has had its own struggles. The Sooners only beat Utah State by 7, Air Force by 3 and Cincinnati by 2, and the 47-17 win over Florida State stands out as an anomaly. The computer has lost this game straight up the last two seasons after nailing it seven years in-a-row.
Oklahoma won 28-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Wyoming by 0.16 over TOLEDO (-4) - Toledo's 3-1 start is a big surprise as the computer's preseason forecast had the Rockets winning just three games all year over Kent State, Ball State and Eastern Michigan, all of which still lay ahead. That 3-1 start is an even bigger surprise for a team that ranks 116th in total offense and 75th on defense. Wyoming ranks 119th on offense and 111th on defense. The computer is 4-0 straight up with Wyoming.
Wyoming won 20-15. The computer won SU, won ATS.