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9/30/09-10/3/09


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/3-9/7
Week 2: 9/10-9/12
Week 3: 9/17-9/19
Week 4: 9/24-9/26
Week 5: 9/30-10/3
Week 6: 10/6-10/10
Week 7: 10/13-10/17
Week 8: 10/21-10/24
Week 9: 10/27-11/1
Week 10: 11/3-11/8
Week 11: 11/10-11/15
Week 12: 11/18-11/21
Week 13: 11/24-11/28
Week 14: 12/3-12/5
Week 15: 12/12-12/12
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2009 Regular Season: 25-9 SU (.735), 18-16 ATS (.529)
Last Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 4-3 ATS (.571)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 4-2 ATS (.667)

Saturday, October 3
Virginia Tech (-13) by 27.17 over DUKE - Jump on this one early as the line is sure to move up. Since joining the ACC in 2004, the Hokies are 5-0 vs. the Blue Devils with 4 of those wins by 24+ points. They have played twice in Durham with Virginia Tech outscoring Duke by an average of 44-7.
Virginia Tech won 34-26. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Penn State (-4) by 8.23 over ILLINOIS - The Illini have been outscored by a cumulative 67-9 by Missouri and Ohio State.
Penn State won 35-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Oklahoma (-7) by 20.22 over MIAMI, FLA. - With or without Sam Bradford, the Sooners should be more than a TD better than the 'Canes. Oklahoma ranks 5th nationally on defense, and Miami only ranks 52nd on offense.
Miami won 21-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

NEVADA (-2) by 8.05 over Unlv - The Silver State's only FBS teams fight for the Fremont Canon which Nevada has won for the last four years. Prior to the current Wolf Pack streak, the Rebels won 5 straight.
Nevada won 63-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

OREGON (-28) by 33.29 over Washington State - Both teams may be in the PAC-10, but the Cougars are nowhere near being in the same league as the Ducks, yet. I usually shy away from spreads this large, but Oregon should win this game by 40 or 50. In fact, the 28-point opening ballooned to 31 in no time. Oregon has won the last two meetings by 49 and 46.
Oregon won 52-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Usf (-9) by 13.96 at Syracuse - The teams have met four time and USF has won each of them by 17 points or more. Combined, the Bulls have outscored the Orange 140-33.
USF won 34-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2009 Regular Season: 21-7 SU (.750), 13-15 ATS (.464)
Last Week: 3-2 SU (.600), 4-1 ATS (.800)
This Week: 3-2 SU (.600), 3-2 ATS (.600)

Friday, October 2
BYU (-27) by 20.57 over Utah State - The Battle of the Brothers has been waged 105 times with the Cougars winning 77 of those contests, including the last 12, but only once since 1997 has the outcome exceeded the opening 27-point line for this game. Additionally, the Aggies only lost at Utah by 18 and Texas A&M by 8. Utah State QB Diondre Borel ranks 21st nationally in passing at 257 yards per game, 4 TD's and only 1 INT. BYU's Max Hall ranks 8th with 296 yards per game, but has 8 picks to go with his 8 TD's. Plus, Utah State has RB Robert Turbin who ranks 4th nationally with 124.3 yards per game, and BYU ranks 68th against the run.
BYU won 35-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 3
BAYLOR (-21) by 16.80 over Kent State - Baylor has lost dual-threat QB Robert Griffin for the season. Senior DB and return specialist Mikail Baker was also lost for the year in Saturday's 68-13 rout of Northwestern State (Louisiana). The backups at QB are Sr. Blake Szymanski, who lost the job to Griffin last season, and freshman Nick Florence.
Baylor won 31-15. The computer won SU, won ATS.

SAN DIEGO STATE (-14) by 6.57 over New Mexico State - The Aggies are coming off a 3-point win at rival New Mexico. Both teams lost to their only common opponent, Idaho, by about the same margin. Both teams have new head coaches, but former Ball State head coach Brady Hoke is still looking for his first win over a FBS school as the head man at SDSU. Former UCLA defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker is the first-year head coach at NMSU.
San Diego State won 34-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TENNESSEE (-3) by 1.91 over Auburn - A battle of new head coaches between Tennessee's Lane Kiffin and Auburn's Gene Chizik. The Tigers' 3rd-ranked offense faces the Vols' 8th-ranked defense, and Auburn's 41st-ranked defense faces Tennessee's 61st-ranked offense. War Eagle outright over Rocky Top.
Auburn won 26-22. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-6) by 1.63 over Western Michigan - The Broncos have won the last three meetings, all by margins of 4 points or less.
Northern Illinois won 31-3. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2009 Regular Season: 14-22 SU (.389), 19-17 ATS (.528)
Last Week: 2-6 SU (.250), 3-5 ATS (.375)
This Week: 4-3 SU (.571), 5-2 ATS (.714)

Saturday, October 3
Air Force by 2.27 over NAVY (-3.5) - The Middies have won 6 straight and have held the Commander-In-Chiefs Trophy for that long, as well. The Falcons lead the nation in rushing while Navy is 6th, but the Middies have finished 1st in that statistical category for 4 straight years. Air Force averages just 9.5 passes per game, and Navy averages only 12 throws. As a result, the Midshipmen rank 118th through the air, while the Falcons are 119th out of 120 FBS schools. Against the run, the AFA ranks 38th and Navy is 44th.
Navy won 16-13 in OT. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Tulane by 2.24 over ARMY (-6.5) - 110th-ranked Tulane visits 116th-ranked Army and the game will be televised by CBSC, the cable sports channel of CBS Collegiate Sports. Tulane has been the victim in 1/3rd of Army's wins from 2007-2008. Army won last year's game in New Orleans 44-13, and 20-17 at home in 2007. The Green Wave took the previous 3 battles.
Tulane won 17-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.

BALL STATE by 0.74 over Toledo (-6) - Ball State is winless and ranked 112th. At this point last season, the Cardinals were 5-0 and ranked 28th. The Rockets rank 14th in total offense, but have no defense. Ball State is lacking on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Everyone has scored at least 31 points on Toledo while BSU has held three opponents to 24 or less.
Toledo won 37-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

BOSTON COLLEGE by 1.22 over Florida State (-6) - Which FSU team will show up in Chestnut Hill? The one that made BYU look awful, or the one that has looked awful itself against Jacksonville State and USF? Virtually all of the preseason forecasts, except the computer's, had BC falling to the bottom of the division. The computer is 4-0 with its preseason game picks for the Eagles, 3-1 with the in-season adjusted pick. It tabbed FSU as the winner of this game in the preseason, but now goes with Boston College.
Boston College won 28-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Kansas State by 6.94 over Iowa State (-2) at Arlington, TX - The Wildcats have yet to defeat a FBS team. Iowa State is 3-1 with victories over Army and Kent State. The Wildcats rank 10th in the nation in total defense while he Cyclones rank 70th. Both teams rank a little above average in total offense.
Kansas State won 24-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MICHIGAN STATE by 13.04 over Michigan (-1) - Surprisingly, Michigan State outranks Michigan 21st to 30th on offense, and 71st to 89th on defense. It's surprising because the Spartans' season has gone down the drain quickly while Michigan's is looking brighter every week. The Spartans were a preseason 18.58-point favorite in this game and were expected to be 4-0 at this point, but heartbreaking losses to Central Michigan and Notre Dame have put them in a hole. MSU had Central Michigan seemingly put away, and was on a game-winning march against the Irish when an interception at the ND 4-yard line killed the comeback bid. Last week's 38-30 loss at Wisconsin was even more devastating as it put the Spartans in an 0-1 hole in the Big Ten conference standings.
Michigan State won 26-20 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.

VANDERBILT by 0.49 over Mississippi (-10) - Neither team can afford another SEC loss as t he Commodores are already 0-2, and the Rebels are 0-1. Both schools have just one win over FBS teams. A 10-point line for Ole Miss simply seems absurd, especially when Vanderbilt has won the last two meetings.
Mississippi won 23-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.



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