College Football
Feature Picks
Archives
9/27/07-9/29/07


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 4: 9/20-9/22
Week 5: 9/27-9/29
Week 6: 10/2-10/7
Week 7: 10/10-10/14
Week 8: 10/18-10/21
Week 9: 10/25-10/28
Week 10: 11/1-11/4
Week 11: 11/6-11/10
Week 12: 11/13-11/17
Week 13: 11/20-11/24
Week 14: 11/29-12/1
Week 15: Bowls
Archiving began in Week 4 in the 2007 Season.

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
This Week: 4-1 SU (.800), 2-3 ATS (.400)

Thursday, September 27th
ARKANSAS STATE (-4) 12.02 over Memphis - Memphis has one win over a non-FCS school since the beginning of last season.
Arkansas State won 35-31. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, September 29th
Cincinnati (-14) 18.98 over SAN DIEGO STATE -
The Bearcats may be one of the most under-rated teams in the country. They've defeated every team they have played this year by at least 26 points while SDSU has only managed a win over an FCS team, Portland State, that is currently 1-3. The Aztecs were whacked on the road by Washington State and Arizona State by an average of 24 points in their first two games this season.
Cincinnati won 52-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Penn State (-3) 10.45 over ILLINOIS - I don't know if we should read the oddsmakers' 3-point spread as a slap to Penn State or over-exuberance toward Illinois. Penn State has taken the last three games against the Fighting Illini. Since joining the Big Ten in 1993, the Nittany Lions are 9-1 against Illinois.
Illinois won 27-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

NEVADA (-3.5) 13.20 over Nevada-Las Vegas - A 3-point home spread is a present we probably shouldn't turn down. The Wolf Pack have won the last two games in this series after dropping five straight from 2000-2004.
Nevada won 27-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

VIRGINIA TECH (-17.5) 27.44 over North Carolina - The Hokies have won the last two meetings by an average of 26 points. If the Virginia Tech defense does its part and shuts down the Tar Heels, the offense should ultimately muster enough points. The computer is 46-25 ATS with the Hokies since 2001. It's 40-31 ATS with UNC.
Virginia Tech won 17-10. the computer won SU, lost ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers
This Week: 4-1 SU (.800), 2-3 ATS (.400)

Saturday, September 29th
CONNECTICUT (-13.5) 5.22 over Akron - The Zips lost at Ohio State by 18, and at Indiana by 17. Is UConn better than those two teams? There is no doubt that Akron has played the tougher schedule of these two teams. The Huskies are 4-0 against Duke, FCS member Maine, Temple, and Pitt..
Connecticut won 44-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

FLORIDA (-19) 10.5 over Auburn - Defensively, Auburn can play with anyone. The trick will be for the offense to keep up. The Tigers are in desperate need of a win, but it's a bit too much to expect the Tigers to prevail in Gainesville this week where Urban Meyer is undefeated.
Auburn won 20-17. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

VANDERBILT (-20.5) 12.69 over Eastern Michigan - Since 1995, the Commodores have three victories over FBS schools by more than 20 points - Temple last year, TCU in 1997, and Louisiana Tech in 1995. The Eagles enter the contest on a rare two-game winning streak with victories over Northern Illinois and FCS member Howard. Vandy only beat Richmond by 24 in the opener.
Vanderbilt won 30-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

FRESNO STATE (-13) 11.38 over Louisiana Tech - In the battle of Bulldogs, Louisiana Tech has won 2 of the last 3 games. When Fresno State has beaten Louisiana Tech, the margin has not exceeded 10 points since 2002.
Fresno State won 17-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Hawaii (-26) 25.56 over IDAHO - The Warriors won a 45-44 shootout in overtime with Louisiana Tech, and two of their other three victories have come at the expense of FCS schools. The win at UNLV was impressive, but that's the only good mark on the resume. Unfortunately for the Warriors, beating the Vandals by 30 won't improve that resume. As for Idaho, they only lost at USC by 28 and have averaged nearly 28 points per game in their last three contests. Hawaii won the only other meeting in the tiny 16,000-seat Kibbie Dome 24-0 in 2005.
Hawaii won 48-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, every projected upset is listed.
This Week: 2-2 SU (.500), 2-2 ATS (.500)

Saturday, September 29th
GEORGIA TECH by 7.01 over Clemson (-3)
- Already 0-2 in the ACC, another loss by Georgia Tech will certainly eliminate it from a repeat shot at the ACC title (the Yellow Jackets lost the conference championship game to Wake Forest last year). For Clemson, a victory would give it a 5-0 start for the first time since 2000. More importantly, a win would make the Tigers 3-0 in the ACC Atlantic. The two teams have split their last 18 meetings. More recently, they have also split their last four.
Georgia Tech won 13-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

OHIO by 3.87 over Kent State (-1) - It's the Bobcats' MAC opener. The Golden Flashes are 0-1 after being upset by Akron last week (a correct computer call).
Kent State won 33-25. the computer lost SU, lost ATS.

MIAMI (OHIO) by 1.27 over Syracuse (-1.5) - I have my doubts about this one, especially after the 'Cuse hung 38 at Louisville at last week. The RedHawks have been outscored 89-10 in their last two games against Cincinnati and Colorado. But, Syracuse has allowed between 35 and 42 points to all four of its opponents.
Miami (Ohio) won 17-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

OREGON STATE by 0.52 over Ucla (-2) - UCLA was bombed 44-6 by a Utah team that lost 27-0 the next week to UNLV. Oregon State whipped Utah 24-7 in the opener but hasn't defeated a FBS team since. This game looks like the epitome of a toss-up with home-field advantage breaking the impasse.
UCLA won 40-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.