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9/24/09-9/26/09


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/3-9/7
Week 2: 9/10-9/12
Week 3: 9/17-9/19
Week 4: 9/24-9/26
Week 5: 9/30-10/3
Week 6: 10/6-10/10
Week 7: 10/13-10/17
Week 8: 10/21-10/24
Week 9: 10/27-11/1
Week 10: 11/3-11/8
Week 11: 11/10-11/15
Week 12: 11/18-11/21
Week 13: 11/24-11/28
Week 14: 12/3-12/5
Week 15: 12/12-12/12
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2009 Regular Season: 20-8 SU (.714), 14-14 ATS (.500)
Last Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 2-4 ATS (.333)
This Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 4-3 ATS (.571)

Thursday, September 24
Mississippi (-3.5) by 4.49 over SOUTH CAROLINA - Ole Miss barely broke a sweat in lopsided wins over Memphis and SE Louisiana (FCS) while South Carolina opened with N.C. State and Georgia. The Gamecocks rank 6th against the pass in the SEC. South Carolina won last year's game in Oxford 31-24, but the Rebels are now on an 8-game winning streak.
South Carolina 16-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, September 26
AIR FORCE (-19) by 26.53 over San Diego State - The Falcons have won the last two meetings by 32 and 25. Air Force leads the nation in rushing offense with 344 per game which is 55 more per game than the No. 2 team.
Air Force won 26-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

ALABAMA (-14.5) by 17.99 over Arkansas - Alabama has offensive firepower and a solid defense. Arkansas exhibited its offense in a 52-41 home loss to Georgia last week, but also exhibited defensive weakness in allowing 8.5 yards per play to the Bulldogs. Arkansas tops the SEC on offense, but ranks 11th on defense. The TIde ranks 4th on offense and 1st on defense.
Alabama won 35-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

OHIO STATE (-15) by 19.11 over Illinois - The Illini lost by 28 to Missouri in the opener and haven't faced a team from the FBS since then. The Buckeyes shut down Toledo 38-0 last week after the Rockets entered that contest averaging 42.5 points per game against Purdue and Colorado.
Ohio State won 30-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Rutgers (-2.5) by 6.15 over MARYLAND - The computer called it for MTSU at Maryland last week. Why not give the ol' CPU another shot?
Rutgers won 34-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

VIRGINIA TECH (-2) by 12.39 over Miami, Fla. - This game has a surprising 10-point gap between the line and the computer. The Hokies only won by 1 point at home last week vs. Nebraska, but a 2-point home edge in Lane Stadium is too low to resist. Miami has won just twice in its last seven trips to Blacksburg, though it has split the last four.
Virginia Tech won 31-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NEW MEXICO (-7) by 12.25 over New Mexico State - Both teams have new head coaches so that raises concern, but the Lobos have won 6 straight over the Aggies and have covered the computer's spread 4 of the last 5 years.
New Mexico State won 20-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2009 Regular Season: 18-5 SU (.783), 10-13 ATS (.435)
Last Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 3-3 ATS (.500)
This Week: 3-2 SU (.600), 4-1 ATS (.800)

Saturday, September 26
PENN STATE (-11) by 5.56 over Iowa - These are two of the remaining five undefeated teams in the Big Ten. Iowa won 24-23 last year in Iowa City. The line is double the computer's pick.
Iowa won 21-10. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

KANSAS (-14) by 11.91 over Southern MIss - Southern Miss brings a strong team to Lawrence that features RB Damion Fletcher, a senior vying for a fourth 1,000-yard season. He already has 344 yards and 4 TD's.
Kansas won 35-28, The computer won SU, won ATS.

Vanderbilt (-11) by 1.61 over RICE - Rice finally gets to play its' home opener. Vandy has only scored a total of 12 points in its' two games vs. FBS foes LSU and Mississippi State.
Vanderbilt won 36-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Lsu (-15) by 13.86 over MISSISSIPPI STATE - The Bayou Bengals only beat the Bulldogs by 10 in Baton Rouge last year. Mississippi State is coming off a 15-3 upset road win over Vanderbilt. The new MSU head coach is former Florida Gator OC Dan Mullen.
LSU won 30-26. The computer won SU, won ATS.

CLEMSON (-1.5) by 0.37 over Tcu - TCU ranks 8th nationally in total defense, and 1st against the run. Clemson ranks 83rd on offense.
TCU won 14-10. The computer lost SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2009 Regular Season: 10-19 SU (.345), 14-15 ATS (.483)
Last Week: 4-8 SU (.333), 5-7 ATS (.417)
This Week: 2-6 SU (.250), 3-5 ATS (.375)

Saturday, September 26
OREGON STATE by 1.49 over Arizona (-2.5) - A week after traveling to the midwest to play Iowa, the Wildcats have to journey to the northwest to face Oregon State. It won't get any better for them next week when they turn right back and head further north to Washington.
Arizona won 37-32. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Troy by 0.86 over ARKANSAS STATE (-1.5) - The Trojans won the last meetings between these schools by impressive counts of 35-9 and 27-0.
Troy won 30-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

FIU by 4.41 over Toledo (-3) - The Golden Panthers won 35-16 at Toledo last year.
Toledo won 41-31. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Texas Tech by 7.49 over HOUSTON (-1) - Houston had last week off after picking up the big win at Oklahoma State. Texas Tech beat the spread at Texas last week and brings its own potent offense to battle the Cougars. These teams haven't met since 1995 when both teams were in the now-defunct Southwest Conference.
Houston won 29-28. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Michigan State by 5.47 over WISCONSIN (-3) - Consecutive heartbreaking losses to Central Michigan and Notre Dame have the Spartans sitting at 1-2 after preseason expectations ran high. Wisconsin is 3-0 but the wins have come against Northern Illinois (28-20), Fresno State (34-31, 2 OT's) and Wofford (FCS). The last two meetings between these schools were decided by 3 points or less.
Wisconsin won 38-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Minnesota by 0.87 over NORTHWESTERN (-1) - Northwestern barely beat Eastern Michigan and lost at Syracuse. Minnesota has a quality home win over Air Force and battled Cal to a stalemate for three quarters before falling 35-21 last week.
Minnesota won 35-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Pitt by 7.82 over N.C. STATE (-1.5) - The Wolfpack is 2-1 but both victories came against FCS schools after an opening 7-3 home loss to South Carolina. The Panthers are 3-0 with FBS wins over Buffalo and Navy.
N.C. State won 38-31. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Uab by 1.19 over TEXAS A&M (-16) - I don't buy the outright upset but I won't be surprised to see a closer game. On defense, Texas A&M ranks 86th and UAB is 110th. The Aggies are ranked No. 1 on offense while UAB is No. 42.
Texas A&M won 56-19. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.