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9/15/11-9/17/11


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/1-9/5
Week 2: 9/8-9/10
Week 3: 9/15-9/17
Week 4: 9/22-9/24
Week 5: 9/29-10/1
Week 6: 10/6-10/8
Week 7: 10/13-10/15
Week 8: 10/18-10/22
Week 9: 10/25-10/29
Week 10: 11/1-11/5
Week 11: 11/8-11/12
Week 12: 11/15-11/19
Week 13: 11/22-11/26
Week 14: 12/1-12/3
Week 15: 12/10-12/10
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 19-3 SU (.864), 14-8 ATS (.636)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 4-2 ATS (.667)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, September 15
Lsu (-4) by 6.36 over MISSISSIPPI STATE - LSU has already proven it can win big away from home with a 40-27 win over Oregon at Cowboys Stadium in Game 1. All Mississippi State has is a rout over the worst team in the FBS and a 7-point loss to an Auburn team that Utah State came closer to beating.
LSU won 19-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, September 17
BALL STATE (-5.5) by 8.44 over Buffalo - The Cardinals beat Indiana in the opener, then got blasted at USF when the game started with BSU fumbling the opening kickoff. Last year's lousy Ball State team won AT Buffalo by 17.
Ball State won 28-25. The Computer won SU, lost ATS.

Oklahoma (-4) by 6.95 over FLORIDA STATE - Oklahoma leads the nation in total offense after playing a Tulsa team that will probably win 9+ games and beating it 47-14. Florida State is 14th in total offense after playing La.-Monroe and Charleston Southern.
Oklahoma won 23-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Hawaii (-17) by 17.11 over UNLV - UNLV lost at Wisconsin by 34 and at Washington State by 52. Being at home isn't going to help a Rebels team that ranks 118th in total defense and 116th in total offense.
UNLV won 40-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Wisconsin (-14) by 15.48 over Northern Illinois (at Soldier Field, Chicago) - Northern Illinois is not a bad team, but the Huskies are coming off an upset loss at Kansas and the Badgers may be the best team in college football right now. The computer's hitting 72% ATS with Big Ten teams.
Wisconsin won 49-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Texas (-4.5) by 5.42 over UCLA - Case McCoy gets the starting nod for the Longhorns against a UCLA team that only won at home by 10 points over lowly San Jose State last week. Forget the Bruins' win in Austin last season as this Texas team is allowing just 86.5 yards per game on the ground.
Texas won 49-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.





HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 15-0 SU (1.000), 5-10 ATS (.333)
This Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 3-2 ATS (.600)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, September 16
Boise State (-20.5) by 7.92 over TOLEDO - The Rockets were a 22-point underdog at Ohio State last week, but the computer's forecast of a 1.69-point loss was a heckuva lot closer to the 27-22 outcome. We're looking at a similar scenario this week with the difference in spread and prediction. A wise man, or a complete idiot, once said, "One game doesn't make a trend, but it could be the start of one".
Boise State won 40-15. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, September 17
VIRGINIA TECH (-27.5) by 25.90 over Arkansas State - The computer is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS with the Red Wolves. It's also 2-0 SU with Virginia Tech and 1-0 ATS.
Virginia Tech won 26-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

GEORGIA TECH (-14) by 10.80 over Kansas - The Jackets lost by 3 at Kansas last year. Since then, the Jayhawks have gotten better and Georgia Tech has lost some talent. Both teams are 2-0, but Kansas has the more impressive FBS win after upsetting a good Northern Illinois team last weekend.
Georgia Tech won 66-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NEBRASKA (-17.5) by 13.64 over Washington - As Dave Congrove points out in his weekly pre-game column, "It's the tie-breaker game for these teams as they meet for a third time since September 18th of last year. The Cornhuskers won the regular season affair 56-21, but were stymied 19-7 in the Holiday Bowl rematch". I'll add that the 'Huskers had a tough time with Fresno State last weekend and Huskies head coach Steve Sarkisian will bring his team ready to play.
Nebraska won 51-38. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NORTH CAROLINA (-11) by 3.76 over Virginia - A 34-point loss at home last year ended a 4-game winning streak in the series for the Cavaliers. Still, Virginia hasn't lost at Chapel Hill since 2005. Further, Virginia hasn't lost at Chapel Hill by more than 6 points since 1997.
North Carolina won 28-17. The computer won SU, won ATS (we don't recognize tie picks).




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 6-9 SU (.400), 8-7 ATS (.533)
This Week: 1-3 SU (.250), 1-3 ATS (.250)
PAST RECORDS
These are the computer's picks and I can see any and all of them happening.

Saturday, September 17
ILLINOIS by 3.01 over Arizona State (-1.5) - ASU makes a rare trip east of the Mississippi River. The Sun Devils are 1-2 at Big Ten schools since winning at Illinois in 1987. They won both games of a home-and-home series with Illinois in 1987-1988 and the teams haven't met again until now. The Illini are 0-5 vs. PAC-12/PAC-10 schools since beating Cal in 2000 and 2001.
Illinois won 17-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Ohio State by 5.27 over MIAMI, FLA. (-1) - The NCAA inquiries are well documented as is the past history of these two teams. Miami is 1-3 all-time vs. Ohio State with the lone win coming in 1999 at the Kickoff Classic at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Miami won 24-6. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Miami, Ohio by 12.29 over MINNESOTA (-1.5) - Hopefully, everything will be okay with Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill who is expected to return to the sideline this week after collapsing from a seizure toward the end of last week's upset loss to New Mexico State. I have a difficult time defining a RedHawk win this week as an upset as the defending MAC champs return a ton of talent from last season's 10-4 team.
Minnesota won 29-23. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

NEW MEXICO STATE by 0.77 over Utep (-2) - Speaking of New Mexico State (see above), a home win over UTEP isn't nearly as implausible as last weekend's win at Minnesota. The Miners needed overtime in week 1 to beat a Stony Brook team that was crushed at Buffalo in week 2. The Miners lost by 11 at SMU last week to fall to 1-1. The Aggies are also 1-1 as they lost their opener at home to Ohio 44-24.
UTEP won 16-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.