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9/11/08-9/13/08


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 8/28-9/1
Week 2: 9/4-9/6
Week 3: 9/11-9/13
Week 4: 9/17-9/20
Week 5: 9/25-9/27
Week 6: 9/30-10/4
Week 7: 10/7-10/11
Week 8: 10/16-10/18
Week 9: 10/21-10/26
Week 10: 10/28-11/2
Week 11: 11/4-11/8
Week 12: 11/11-11/15
Week 13: 11/18-11/22
Week 14: 11/25-11/29
Week 15: 12/3-12/6
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2008 Regular Season: 16-4 SU (.800), 9-11 ATS (.450)
Last Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 2-4 ATS (.337)
This Week: 7-1 SU (.875), 3-5 ATS (.375)

Thursday, September 11
Rutgers (-4.5) by 10.39 over NORTH CAROLINA
- The computer obviously doesn't buy the preseason hype regarding the Tar Heels. Neither team has played since Labor Day weekend when Rutgers lost 24-7 at home to Fresno State, and North Carolina needed a rally to beat FCS member McNeese State 35-27.
North Carolina won 44-12. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, September 13
Georgia (-7) by 10.64 over SOUTH CAROLINA -
South Carolina sprung a 16-12 upset on the Bulldogs in Athens last year, but this should not be too difficult if Georgia is as talented as advertised.
Georgia won 14-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

VIRGINIA TECH (-7) by 14.19 over Georgia Tech - The Hokies have been slow out of the gate, but have had two games to fine-tune the offense while the defense looks more than capable. The last-minute Virginia Tech loss to East Carolina isn't quite as embarrassing since the Pirates destroyed West Virginia 24-3 this past Saturday.
Virginia Tech won 20-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Western Michigan (-8) by 11.59 over IDAHO - The Vandals have lost 17 straight to FBS schools, including 70-0 in the season opener at Arizona. Nine of their last twelve losses has been by more than 8 points. The other three losses were to teams that had a combined record of 9-27 in 2007.
Western Michigan won 51-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

KENTUCKY (-16.5) by 21.26 over Middle Tennessee - The Wildcats were a 44-22 winner in 2002 in the only other meeting between these two schools. Don't let MTSU's win over Maryland fool you. The Blue Raiders have lost at Oklahoma, LSU and South Carolina by no less than 42 points over the last two seasons. Middle Tennessee lost its season opener by 14 at home against Troy.
Kentucky won 20-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Oregon (-7) by 9.58 over PURDUE - Thus far, the Ducks have obliterated Washington (44-10) and Utah State (66-24). I expect Purdue to put up a fight but the only game under its belt is last week's 42-10 win over FCS member Northern Colorado.
Oregon won 32-26 in 2 OT's. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Penn State (-26.5) by 30.41 over SYRACUSE - Both of these numbers seem low to me. I'm thinking the final score is more likely to be in the vicinity of 52-3.
Penn State won 55-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

VANDERBILT (-7) by 10.50 over Rice - Vanderbilt has already won two games it wasn't expected to win so the Commodores will have to be careful not to have a letdown against Rice. The Owls are also 2-0 and feature one of the best quarterback-receiver duos in college football history. QB Chase Clement has thrown 36 touchdown passes to Jarrett Dillard in four seasons. Louisiana Tech's Tim Rattay and Troy Edwards set the record of 39 during their collegiate careers that ended in 1998.
Vanderbilt won 38-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 13-4 SU (.765), 10-7 ATS (.588)
Last Week: 2-2 SU (.500), 3-1 ATS (.750)
This Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 3-4 ATS (.429)

NOTE: Arkansas at Texas was removed. Game postponed until Sept. 27.

Saturday, September 13
Ball State (-7) by 5.39 over AKRON - This feels like a nailbiter and maybe even an Akron upset.
Ball State won 41-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

ALABAMA (-27.5) by 20.11 over Western Kentucky - 27.5 points? Did the oddsmakers think Alabama was playing Clemson again?
Alabama won 41-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

CONNECTICUT (-11) by 9.79 over Virginia - The Cavs may lose, and Al Groh's paycheck may be over-inflated, but an 11-point road dog to UConn??? No knock on the Huskies, but that simply should not happen.
Connecticut won 45-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS

MICHIGAN STATE (-17) by 7.48 over Florida Atlantic - I started to drop this game from consideration several times, but just couldn't do it. The Spartans have Notre Dame at home next week and may look past the Owls.
Michigan State won 17-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

LSU (-41.5) by 39.40 over North Texas - North Texas likes to wing it so it should be able to put a few points on the board. The Mean Green allowed Tulsa's high-powered offense to post 56 points last week, and the team still only lost by 30.
LSU won 41-3. The computer won SU. won ATS.

USC (-10.5) by 3.63 over Ohio State - Yes, Ohio State was awful at home against Ohio University. And I'm 99.9 percent certain that USC will win. I just think 10.5 is over-doing it a little.
USC won 35-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TEXAS TECH (-37) by 34.04 over Southern Methodist - SMU likes to wing it so it should be able to put a few points on the board. Yes, I repeated that line from the North Texas-LSU game above.
Texas Tech won 43-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 5-6 SU (.455), 6-5 ATS (.545)
Last Week: 1-1 SU (.500), 1-1 ATS (.500)
This Week: 1-4 SU (.200), 2-3 ATS (.400)

Friday, September 12
BAYLOR by 2.34 over Washington State (-2) -
Washington State suffered its worst loss in the football history of the school, dating to 1894, when the California Golden Bears embarrassed the Cougars 66-3 in front of the home crowd last Saturday. This week, Wazzu ventures into another bear's den, albeit one with historically dull cuspids. Baylor has lost 9 straight games to FBS teams since winning 34-21 at Buffalo last September 22nd.
Baylor won 45-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, September 13
OHIO by 0.54 over Central Michigan (-3.5) -
A strong showing by the Bobcats at Ohio State this past Saturday has propelled them into favored status at home against the Chippewas. But Ohio better cut down on the turnovers, five of which killed its chances for a monumental upset of the Buckeyes.
Central Michigan won 31-28. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Navy by 1.62 over DUKE (-2) - This game features two head coaches in their first year with respective programs, David Cutcliffe at Duke and Ken Niumatalolo at Navy. Both teams are 1-1 with the wins coming against FCS member schools on opening weekend. Last week, Northwestern won 24-20 at Duke while Navy fell 35-23 at Ball State.
Duke won 41-31. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

FRESNO STATE by 0.14 over Wisconsin (-1.5) - The Bulldogs have not played since winning at Rutgers on Labor Day, and were forecasted by the computer as a slim underdog (+0.15) in the preseason. Wisconsin has wins over Akron and Marshall, but this is the first road trip of the season for the Badgers.
Wisconsin won 13-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Michigan by 7.45 over NOTRE DAME (-1) - I was surprised when Notre Dame opened as a 4-point favorite. How does a 4th quarter rally to beat San Diego State warrant that kind of respect, especially after the Aztecs had lost at home to FCS member Cal Poly? (It's a rhetorical question). This is the one computer upset pick that I feel certain about, so it may not happen.
Notre Dame won 35-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.