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9/8/11-9/10/11


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/1-9/5
Week 2: 9/8-9/10
Week 3: 9/15-9/17
Week 4: 9/22-9/24
Week 5: 9/29-10/1
Week 6: 10/6-10/8
Week 7: 10/13-10/15
Week 8: 10/18-10/22
Week 9: 10/25-10/29
Week 10: 11/1-11/5
Week 11: 11/8-11/12
Week 12: 11/15-11/19
Week 13: 11/22-11/26
Week 14: 12/1-12/3
Week 15: 12/10-12/10
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 14-2 SU (.875), 10-6 ATS (.625)
This Week: 8-1 SU (.889), 7-2 ATS (.778)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, September 8
OKLAHOMA STATE (-13) by 18.04 over Arizona - This is a rematch of last year's Alamo Bowl which Oklahoma State won 36-10. The QB's in this game are ranked 1-2 in passing yards after 1 week of play. Nick Foles threw for 412 yards, 5 TD's and 0 picks for the Wildcats in a 41-10 win over FCS foe Northern Arizona. The Cowboys' Brandon Weeden passed for 388 yards, 3 TD's and 3 picks - 2 of which were returned for touchdowns - in a 61-34 win over Louisiana-Lafayette.
Oklahoma State won 37-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, September 10
Temple (-14) by 18.97 over AKRON - Temple has won the last three meetings with the Zips by 30, 29 and 19.
Temple won 41-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

ARKANSAS STATE (-14.5) by 23.06 over Memphis - The computer says Memphis is the worst team in the FBS, by far. Mississippi State was favored by 27.5 at Memphis last week while the computer said the Bulldogs would win by 39.82 and MSU won by 45 instead.
Arkansas State won 47-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

South Carolina (-1.5) by 7.10 over GEORGIA - The computer picked South Carolina to beat East Carolina by 19 last week (it was 56-37) and Georgia to lose by 15 to Boise State (it was 35-21). It nailed both picks.
South Carolina won 45-42. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WASHINGTON (-1) by 9.28 over Hawaii - The Warriors are 1-6 in road games at "Big 6" conference schools since 2001 and the only win came against a horrible Washington State team in 2009. That said, the Huskies are 1-2 vs. the Warriors with the most recent meeting resulting in a 35-28 loss at Hawaii in 2007 when June Jones coached the team to a 12-0 regular season before falling to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Washington's only win vs. Hawaii came way back in 1937 in the Poi Bowl.
Washington won 40-32. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Virginia (-4.5) by 7.17 over INDIANA - The Hoosiers last win over a team with "Virginia" in its name came in 1973. Since then, they've fallen at Virginia 47-7 in 2009; to Virginia Tech 45-20 in the 1993 Independence Bowl; and at home to West Virginia by a 24-0 count in 1974.
Virginia won 34-31. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

N. C. State (-1) by 6.40 over WAKE FOREST - N. C. State hasn't won at Wake Forest since 2001 so that concerns me, but the Wolfpack are predicted to go 10-2 while the Deacons are forecasted to go 2-10.
Wake Forest won 34-27. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

WISCONSIN (-16) by 20.32 over Oregon State - The Beavers lost at home to FCS member Sacramento State in their opener. Wisconsin has won its last three home games by 63 (indiana), 37 (Northwestern) and 34 (UNLV).
Wisconsin won 35-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Tulsa (-14) by 17.18 over TULANE - The Golden Hurricane are 6-0 vs. the Green Wave as members of CUSA and have won each meeting by at least 24 points.
Tulsa won 31-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.





HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 10-0 SU (1.000), 2-8 ATS (.200)
This Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 1-6 ATS (.143)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, September 10
ARKANSAS (-40) by 34.59 over New Mexico - Only 4 of 40 FBS vs. FBS matches (10%) played on opening weekend were decided by more than 40 points. Last year in week two, only seven games total were decided by more than 40 points. Last week, Arkansas defeated Missouri State - a FCS team with a 5-6 record a year ago - by 41, while New Mexico fell at home to Colorado State by 4.
Arkansas won 52-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

USF (-23) by 16.93 over Ball State - USF plays its home opener a week after turning 5 Notre Dame turnovers into a 23-20 win at South Bend. Ball State plays its second straight away from home after beating Indiana 27-20 in Indianapolis last week. It's the first meeting between the two schools and the first time USF has played a MAC school since beating Northern Illinois 27-3 in the now-defunct 2009 International Bowl. It's the first time the Bulls have hosted a MAC school since they entertained the Huskies and Bowling Green in 2002.
USF won 37-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

UCF (-6.5) by 3.52 over Boston College - UCF is 2-11 vs. teams from the "Big 6" conferences since 2007, including 0-4 at home. Both wins were by 4 points or less. These teams have met just once before - September 20, 2008 - with BC winning 34-7 at Chestnut Hill.
UCF won 30-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Navy (-14) by 4.86 over WESTERN KENTUCKY - Last week, Navy beat FCS member Delaware by 23 at home while Western Kentucky fell to Kentucky by 11 at a neutral site (Nashville TN). Somehow, to me, that just doesn't equate to the Hilltoppers losing to the Middies at home by 14 points. Navy has won one road game by more than 14 points in each of the least three seasons. Navy won the only other meeting between these teams in 2009 by 16 points, 38-22, and that game was played at Annapolis.
Navy won 40-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

OREGON (-21.5) by 7.61 over Nevada - There is a huge deviation in spreads for this game with the computer nearly a full 14 points under the Vegas opening line. The Ducks are 5-1 all-time vs. the Wolf Pack with the lone loss happening in 1947. The teams last met in 2003 with Oregon winning at home 31-23. This is Nevada's season opener and it enters the contest ranked 19th by the computer while Oregon fell to 26th from 11th after losing to LSU.
Oregon won 69-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

OHIO STATE (-22) by 1.69 over Toledo - The spread deviation for this game is even wider than the game above. I'm not sure there has been another time when Vegas was in this much disagreement with the computer. However, be warned that 3 of the 5 Toledo losses in 2010 were by more than 22 points - Arizona (41-2 at home), at Boise State (57-14) and at Northern Illinois (65-30). The computer actually has Toledo ranked 17th and Ohio State 20th entering this game.
Ohio State won 27-22. The computer won SU, won ATS.

USC (-6.5) by 2.13 over Utah - The teams haven't met since 2001 when Utah beat the Trojans 10-6 in the Las Vegas Bowl, but USC has won 6 of the 9 games played all-time.
USC won 23-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 5-6 SU (.455), 7-4 ATS (.636)
This Week: 2-4 SU (.333), 3-3 ATS (.500)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, September 9
Missouri by 12.29 over ARIZONA STATE (-5) - I would be more inclined to go along with this pick if the game was at Missouri. It's hard to get a feel for either team based on their openers as the Sun Devils beat FCS member UC-Davis 48-14 and the Tigers downed a good Miami, Ohio team 17-6. New Missouri QB James Franklin threw for a TD and ran for a score in his first start, replacing Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville Jaguars). Brock Osweiler threw for 2 scores for the Sun Devils last week. Osweiler replaced Steven Threet in the UCLA game last year after Threet was injured in the 1st quarter. Threet has since retired from football due to numerous concussions.
Arizona State won 37-30 in OT. Mizzou missed a 48-yard FG with 17 seconds left in regulation after its own head coach called 2 TO's to ice his own kicker. Computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Fiu by 2.01 over LOUISVILLE (-9) - Could FIU be this good? Louisville struggled to a 21-9 home win over FCS member Murray State last week while the Golden Panthers looked sharp in a 41-16 home conference win over North Texas.
FIU won 24-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, September 10
AIR FORCE by 4.71 over Tcu (-6.50) - The AFA may not have Baylor's offense but it should bring a much stronger defense to the table. The Horned Frogs are in definite jeopardy of starting 0-2 after finishing last season undefeated.
TCU won 35-19. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

COLORADO by 2.36 over California (-5) - Unless the Buffs show a ton of improvement over last week's 34-17 loss at Hawaii, this has no chance of happening in my opinion. Cal looked much stronger than anticipated in a 36-21 win over Fresno State.
Cal won 36-33 in OT. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Cincinnati by 0.40 over TENNESSEE (-4.5) - Cincy blew the doors off Austin Peay last week, 72-10, but that isn't really saying anything. Tennessee was just okay in a 26-point win over Montana. Before those games were played, the computer favored the Vols in this week's contest by 2.57.
Tennessee won 45-23. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

RICE by 1.29 over Purdue (-6) - The computer had Rice as just a 10.98-point underdog to Texas last week but the Owls lost 34-9. But it also had Purdue as an 11.34-point pick over MTSU and the B'makers won by just 3. Those results leave me pretty much clueless on this game.
Rice won 24-22. The computer won SU, won ATS.