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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 90-26 SU (.776), 63-53 ATS (.543)
2012 Regular Season: 16-5 SU (.762), 9-12 ATS (.429)
This Week: 9-5 SU (.643), 5-9 ATS (.357)

Friday, September 7
Utah (-4.5) by 10.28 over UTAH STATE - Utes have won 12 straight in the series as the rivals meet for the first time since 2009.
Utah State won 27-20 in OT. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, September 8
MICHIGAN (-20) by 28.37 over Air Force - First meeting since 1964 which Michigan won 24-7 in "The Big House". Wolverines reinstated starting running back Fitzgerald Toussaint and back-up defensive end Frank Clark after sitting 1-game suspensions for separate run-ins with the law. The computer had Michigan favored to win this game by 31.65 before its loss at Alabama.
Michigan won 31-25. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Fiu (-25) by 34.91 over AKRON - Zips lost opener under new head coach Terry Bowden by 42 last week at home vs. Central Florida. FIU's loss last week at Duke was considered an upset by the computer.
FIU won 41-38 in OT. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Oklahoma State (-13.5) by 21.49 over ARIZONA - You can't use last week's 84-0 win to draw any definitive conclusions about the Cowboys as Savannah State has won a total of 20 games over the last 12 years. Replacing stars like QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon is already difficult without having to be concerned about pulling your starters early to avoid another team's embarrassment, but that's the position head coach Mike Gundy found himself in. As a result, 94 different players were used by the end of the 3rd quarter and he began emptying the bench at halftime. Arizona needed overtime to escape Toledo 24-17.
Arizona won 59-38. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

ARKANSAS STATE (-21) by 25.85 over Memphis - I'm surprised the computer has the margin this low. Memphis lost last week's opener at home 20-17 to Tennessee-Martin which has been a .500 FCS team for the last three seasons.
Arkansas State won 33-28. the computer won SU, lost ATS.

SAN DIEGO STATE (-6.5) by 10.34 over Army - Army's opener while SDSU lost 21-12 at Washington last week.
San Diego State won 42-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

BOWLING GREEN (-7.5) by 26.29 over Idaho - Idaho was crushed at home 20-3 by FCS member Eastern Washington last week while the Falcons hung tough at Florida in a 27-14 loss. BGSU won 32-15 last year in Moscow.
Bowling Green won 21-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

STANFORD (-14) by 18.66 over Duke - The Cardinal escaped with a 20-17 home win over San Jose State while Duke downed FIU 46-26. Both games were flukes and Stanford will roll.
Stanford won 50-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

KANSAS STATE (-6.5) by 20.87 over Miami, Fla. - 'Canes probably should have lost last week's game at Boston College after being down 14-0 early, but 3 Eagles' turnovers helped bail them out. Wildcats won 28-24 at Miami last year.
Kansas State won 52-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Nebraska (-4.5) by 14.18 over UCLA - Are oddsmakers reading a little too much into a 49-24 win at Rice? The computer thinks so, not to mention it has the 'Huskers ranked 5th and the Bruins at No. 49.
UCLA won 36-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

NEVADA (-1.5) by 2.07 over Usf - The computer won last week's Nevada game at Cal ATS. I'll ride the Wolf Pack again, especially at home at an elevation that's 4,400 feet higher than where USF is located.
USF won 32-31. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

North Carolina (-4.5) by 6.22 over WAKE FOREST - Wake avoided the home upset loss to FCS member Liberty last week with a 20-17 squeaker while UNC easily blew away FCS member Elon 62-0 in Larry Fedora's debut as head coach. Certainly the Tar Heels are more than 7.5 points better than the Flames.
Wake Forest won 28-27. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

OHIO (-20) by 20.63 over New Mexico State - Personal opinion is that both numbers are nuts and the Bobcats win by 30+. Ohio won by 20 at Las Cruces last year.
Ohio won 51-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

VIRGINIA (-5) by 9.35 over Penn State - The computer nailed the Ohio-Penn State game last week.
Virginia won 17-16. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 67-19 SU (.779), 40-46 ATS (.465)
2012 Regular Season: 9-2 SU (.818), 7-4 ATS (.636)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 4-2 ATS (.667)

Saturday, September 8
ALABAMA (-37) by 12.52 over Western Kentucky - 37 is probably closer than the computer's 12.52, but the Hilltoppers are a solid team that could keep it interesting longer than Michigan managed last week.
Alabama won 35-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

HOUSTON by 6 over Louisiana Tech (-0.07) - This one's difficult to avoid taking after last week's Cougar debacle at home to upstart Texas State (30-13 loss). Bulldogs are favorites to repeat as WAC champs. Cougars were expected to win CUSA west division, but last Saturday's loss may not have been a fluke as QB David Piland is 2-7 as a starter at Houston.
Louisiana Tech won 56-49. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

KANSAS (-6) by 3.70 over Rice - Until the Jayhawks snap their 10-game FBS losing streak, why pick them? Kansas only managed a 14-point win over FCS member South Dakota State (5-6 in 2011) to end its 10-game overall losing streak.
Rice won 25-24. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

LSU (-22) by 14.13 over Washington - Won't say it can't happen, but 22 points seems utterly ridiculous if that's the true expectation.
LSU won 41-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TEXAS (-41) by 36.56 over New Mexico - The experts listed Texas as a 29-point favorite over Wyoming last week and the computer said 20. We know which was right so I'll side with the computer again. New head coach Bob Davie got a win under his belt in the opener, albeit against FCS member Southern.
Texas won 45-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NOTRE DAME (-13.5) by 10.37 over Purdue - Look for fatigue to be a factor for Notre Dame after traveling to Ireland to play Navy last Saturday. Boilermakers look to end 4-game losing streak to Irish.
Notre Dame won 20-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 24-37 SU (.393), 29-32 ATS (.475)
2012 Regular Season: 7-13 SU (.350), 8-12 ATS (.400)
This Week: 5-7 SU (.417), 5-7 ATS (.417)

Thursday, September 6
CINCINNATI by 16.28 over Pittsburgh (-2) - The line quickly switched to Cincy's favor so, in truth, this is more like an "Easy Pickins" game. Bottom line is that it's impossible to imagine the Panthers improving from a 14-point home loss to Youngstown State to any kind of win at Cincinnati.
Cincinnati won 34-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, September 8
Illinois by 6.72 over ARIZONA STATE (-6) - Sun Devils were explosive in 63-6 destruction of FCS member of Northern Arizona. Four Western Michigan turnovers helped Illini win 24-7 over Broncos. The computer had Illinois as an 8-4 squad in the preseason and the Sun Devils at 3-9.
Arizona State won 45-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Auburn by 4.58 over MISSISSIPPI STATE (-2) - Auburn has won 10 of the last 11 and 4 of the last 5 against the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State won 28-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

N. C. State by 2.81 over CONNECTICUT (-2.5) - UConn blanked UMass 37-0 last week while Wolfpack fell 35-21 to Tennessee in Atlanta. The computer had N. C. State by 5.10 in its preseason projections.
N. C. State won 10-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Fau by 0.70 over MIDDLE TENNEESSEE (-7) - Both teams had close games with FCS teams in week 1 with FAU beating Wagner 7-3 and MTSU losing 27-21 to McNeese State. Owls have lost last 4 in the series and 6 of the last 7.
Middle Tennessee won 31-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Florida by 1.11 over TEXAS A&M (-2.5) - The Aggies' first-ever game as an SEC member is also the season opener after their game in Shreveport vs. Louisiana Tech last week was postponed due to Hurricane Isaac. Florida trudged past Bowling Green 27-14 at home last week.
Florida won 20-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MISSOURI by 0.27 over Georgia (-3.5) - It's the first-ever SEC game for the Tigers. Georgia won only previous meeting 14-0 in 1959 season Orange Bowl.
Georgia won 41-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Iowa State by 0.29 over IOWA (-4) - Iowa State will try take back-to-back games in the series for the first time since winning 5 in-a-row from 1998-2002. The Cyclones snapped a 3-game losing streak to the Hawkeyes with last year's 44-41 overtime victory. Iowa hasn't lost to the Cyclones at home since 2002.
Iowa State won 9-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Kent State by 0.20 over KENTUCKY (-7) - The teams haven't met since 2007 but the Golden Flashes are 0-6 all-time vs. Kentucky while being outscored by a cumulative 232-52.
Kentucky won 47-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

La.-Lafayette by 6.35 over TROY (-1) - Larry Blakeney is the second-longest tenured head coach in the FBS in his 22nd season. The Trojans dove to 3-9 last year after winning at least 8 games in each of the previous 5 season.
La.-Lafayette won 37-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Utep by 2.45 over MISSISSIPPI (-4) - This isn't a knee-jerk reaction from the computer as it had UTEP favored by 2.14 even before last week's hard fought 24-7 home loss to Oklahoma.
Mississippi won 28-10The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

WYOMING by 3.22 over Toledo (-2.5) - I could see this game going either way as Wyoming played Texas tough and Toledo lost in overtime at Arizona. My gut tells me Rockets but the Cowboys won 20-15 at Toledo when the teams had their first meeting two years ago.
Toledo won 34-31. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

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