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8/27/14-9/1/14


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2013 Regular Season: 111-18 SU (.860), 78-51 ATS (.605)
2014 Regular Season: 3-2 SU (.600), 1-4 ATS (.200)
This Week: 3-2 SU (.600), 1-4 ATS (.200)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, August 28
VANDERBILT (-17) by 18.60 over Temple - The line has actually dropped since the opening which makes this an easier pick. Stanford defensive coordinator Derek Mason debuts as head coach of the Commodores after James Franklin left for Penn State.
Temple won 37-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, August 30
AUBURN (-21) by 29.79 over Arkansas - The computer's forecasted Western Conference champ hosts the expected last-place team.
Auburn won 45-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NORTHWESTERN (-13) by 25.22 over California - The computer margin is almost double the odds - just too much to pass up.
California won 31-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Washington (-15.5) by 23.75 over HAWAII - Once the jet lag clears, new head coach Chris Petersen and the Huskies should be able to roll over the outmanned Rainbow Warriors.
Washington won 17-16. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Lsu (-4.5) by 11.31 over Wisconsin (at Houston) - I smell a Tiger romp over a Badger squad that the computer doesn't think will be a top-tier team. And even if a romp doesn't materialize, it's not asking a whole lot of LSU to win by at least 5.
LSU won 28-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2013 Regular Season: 70-12 SU (.854), 41-41 ATS (.500)
2014 Regular Season: 2-1 SU (.667), 1-2 ATS (.333)
This Week: 2-1 SU (.667), 1-2 ATS (.333)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, August 29
ARIZONA (-24) by 10.20 over Unlv - The computer has Arizona at No. 59 and UNLV at No. 70.
Arizona won 58-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

HOUSTON (-13.5) by 4.01 over Utsa - Houston debuts TDECU Stadium against Larry Coker's dangerous Roadrunners. The computer has UTSA going 10-2 and playing for the CUSA title against Marshall.
UTSA won 27-7. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Saturday, August 30
FLORIDA (-35) by 18.18 over Idaho
- Florida fans are hoping to see some offense and Idaho provides a good opportunity, but there are enough question marks for the Gators to feel somewhat comfortable in siding with the computer.
Game cancelled due to weather.

USC (-23) by 9.07 over Fresno State - A new head coach for USC and a good Fresno State team to battle for Steve Sarkisian's first game out of the gate.
USC won 52-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2013 Regular Season: 47-48 SU (.495), 59-36 ATS (.694)
2014 Regular Season: 3-5 SU (.375), 3-5 ATS (.375)
This Week: 3-5 SU (.375), 3-5 ATS (.375)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, August 28
LOUISIANA-MONROE by 8.49 over Wake Forest (-2) - Wake has lost 7 straight road games and 11 of its last 12.
Louisiana-Monroe won 17-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

RUTGERS by 5.70 over Washington State (-8)(at Seattle) - An unexplainable massive spread for the Cougars that the computer strongly disagrees with.
Rutgers won 41-38. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Tulane by 2.45 over TULSA (-5) - It's an American Conference clash between two of this season's new transplants from CUSA.
Tulsa won 38-31 in double-overtime. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Friday, August 29
Colorado State by 2.16 over Colorado (-3)(at Denver) - Once again, it doesn't look like Colorado stacks up well in a powerful PAC-12 conference. But the Buffs, who have just 8 wins total over the last 3 seasons, have 2 of those wins over the Rams.
Colorado State won 31-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, August 30
Ucf by 13.31 over Penn State (-1) (at Dublin, Ireland) - The computer likes UCF to go unbeaten this year, even without Blake Bortles at QB, and it has PSU losing 8-of-12 games in James Franklin's first season as head coach. The line had switched to favoring UCF by a point as of late Monday night.
Penn State won 26-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Troy by 0.58 over UAB (-1) - The teams have met annually since 2009 and Troy has taken 4-of-5, including the last 3 in-a-row.
UAB won 48-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Sunday, August 31
Utah State by 4.24 over TENNESSEE (-7) - This would be a head-turner if it becomes reality. Aggie QB Chuckie Keeton returns to the field after missing the last 8 games in 2013 with a knee injury.
Tennessee won 38-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Monday, September 1
Miami (Fla.) by 5 over LOUISVILLE (-2.5) - It seems like every year is the year that Miami is supposed to be back. This is the ACC debut for Louisville which has blown Miami out in each of the last two meetings by scores of 36-9 in last year's Russell Athletic Bowl, and 31-7 in a regular season contest in 2006.
Louisville won 31-13. The computer lost SU, lsot ATS.



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