Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2024), our picks in this category are 1,500-499 (.750) SU, 989-952 (.510) ATS.

	SU	ATS
This Week	1-0 (1.000)	1-0 (1.000)
Last Week	0-0 (.000)	0-0 (.000)
This Season	1-0 (1.000)	1-0 (1.000)
Last Season	55-15 (.786)	44-26 (.629)

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Temple by (-2.5) by 5.15 over UMASS - Saturday, August 30. We are simply placing our faith in Temple's new head coach KC Keeler to end the Owl's 20-game road losing streak in his debut. Keeler has long track record of success..UMASS also has a new head coach in Joe Harasymiak whose only previous HC experience came at Maine (2016-2018) where he was 20-15 after a 10-4 final season before taking an assistant job at Minnesota.

SUATSTemple won 42-10

Notre Dame (-2.5) by 3.79 over MIAMI, FLA. - Sunday, August 31. This hardly has the same vibe as the 1988 clash of Catholics vs. Convicts, but it's an especially big game for Miami which will be starting Georgia transfer Carson Beck at QB while Notre Dame goes with CJ Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr. He was a top recruit (ESPN no. 2 pocket passer) in the 2024 class, but sustained an injury to his throwing elbow last September. Still, he wasn't likely to see the field with Riley Leonard holding the starting job. Miami lost Cam Ward to the Tennessee Titans as the No. 1 over-all pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Notre Dame has an 18-8-1 lead in the series, but they haven't met since 2017 when Miami won 41-8 at home.

South Carolina (-7.5) by 10.21 over Virginia Tech (Atlanta) - Sunday, August 31. Shane, the son of Virginia Tech legend Frank Beamer and the head coach many Virginia Tech fans wanted to succeed his dad, will lead the Gamecocks against the school Shane attended and later served as running backs coach. Expectations are that South Carolina has the better talent and depth at most positions.

Texas Christian (-3.5) by 17.95 over NORTH CAROLINA - Monday, September 1 . The 17.95-point computer spread seems atrocious, but we're taking the invading Horned Frogs to spoil Bill Belichick's debut as HC of the Heels - unless Tom Brady sneaks onto campus.

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2024), our picks in this category are 1,106-306 (.783) SU, 749-663 (.530) ATS.

	SU	ATS
This Week	2-0 (1.000)	0-2 (.000)
Last Week	0-0 (.000)	0-0 (.000)
This Season	2-0 (1.000)	0-2 (.000)
Last Season	16-9 (.640)	13-11 (.542)

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

Tennessee (-13.5) by 3.07 over Syracuse (Atlanta) - Saturday, August 30. This is one of two Aflac Kickoff Games in Atlanta with South Carolina taking on Virginia Tech the next day. The Vols are 3-0 in the series, but these teams haven't met since a 33-9 win Knoxville in 2001. Tennessee HC Josh Heupel just had his contract extended one year to 2030. He's 37-15 with the Vols and a stellar 65-23 over-all. Fran Brown guided the Orange to a 10-3 season in his debut as a HC with any school in 2024. Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli is Kyle McCord's successor at QB for Syracuse. Tennessee and UCLA swapped QB's as the Bruins took Nico Iamaleava and the Vols snatched Joey Aguilar who had transfred from App State to the Bruins after the Mountaineers fired Shawn Clark. Seems like the perfect example of the screwed up NIL/Transfer Portal system.  

SUATSTennessee won 45-26

Utah (-5.5) by 2.44 over UCLA - Saturday, August 30. As mentioned above with the Tennessee/UCLA QB swap, Nico Iamaleava is expected to start for the Bruins while New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier gets the nod for Utah.

SUATSUtah won 43-10

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis. Since 2002 (thru 2024), the computer's upset picks are 1,084-921 ATS (.541).

	SU	ATS
This Week	0-10 (.000)	1-9 (.100)
Last Week	1-1 (.500)	1-1 (.500)
This Season	1-11 (.083)	2-10 (.167)
Last Season	48-66 (.421)	57-57 (.500)

We have noticed more movement in lines during the week than in years past, likely due to easier access as more states now allow sports wagering. Thus, an upset pick on Monday might NOT be one on Tuesday. Bettors beware of dramatic line movements.

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

BAYLOR by 12.08 over Auburn (-1.5) - Friday, August 29. These teams haven't met since 1976. Baylor was 2-0-1 in regular season games from 1965-1976 while Auburn's only win came in the 1954 Gator Bowl. Baylor was 5-1 at home last week while Auburn as 1-3 on the road. The Tigers have won 8 straight season openers, though mostly against vastly inferior opposition. Auburn was 5-7 a year ago while the Bears went 8-5 with 6 straight victories to end the regular season.before a bowl loss to LSU. Baylor returns 80% of its starters including its major playmakers from a year ago..Auburn will start Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold at QB  

SUATSAuburn won 38-24

COLORADO by 1.14 over Georgia Tech (-3.5) - Friday August 29. What will Deion do without his son, Shedeur, at QB and Travis Hunter playing 100 snaps a game on both sides of the ball? How have Coach Prime's health issues effected readiness for this season? Does Brent Key have a Georgia Tech team that can be better than mediocre as the Jackets are just 18-16 under his watch. All we really know right now is that the Jackets are picked to go 6-6 against the No. 33 schedule by the Congrove Computer Rankings and the Buffs are projected to go 7-5 against the No. 23 schedule.

SUATSGeorgia Tech won 27-20

SAM HOUSTON by 4.96 over Nevada-Las Vegas (-9.5) - Friday, August 29. Both teams actually have a game under their belt. UNLV won 38-31, but needed to rally to avert the upset to FCS member Idaho State at home. Sam Houston went to Western Kentucky and lost 41-24 after gaining a 24-20 lead in the opening minutes of the 3rd quarter. Phil Longo is the new HC with the Bearkats, replacing the ultra-successful KC Keeler who is now with Temple. Dan Mullen replaces Barry Odom who filled the opening at Purdue after lifting the Rebels to a cumulative 19-8 in two seasons.

SUATSUNLV won 38-21

Ball State by 3.94 at PURDUE (-16.5) - Saturday, August 30. Both teams return very little experience and both have new head coaches and staffs. Mike Uremovich steps up from the FCS to the FBS after leading Butler to marks of 23-11 overall and 15-9 in the Patriot League. Barry Odom left UNLV after going 19-8 in two seasons. We'd be inclined to take the Big Ten team at home over the MAC team, and the FBS experience of Odom, even though he was just 25-25 in four seasons as the HC at Missouri (2016-2019) where 18 of those wins came against sub.-500 schools or FCS teams, and just 2 wins were vs. schools that finished better than 7-6.

SUATSPurdue won 31-0

Toledo by 0.18 over KENTUCKY (-10) - Saturday, August 30. Kentucky was 4-8 last season while Toledo was a somewhat disappointing 8-5 after a 3-0 start that included a 41-17 win at Mississippi State. QB Tucker Gleason returns after throwing for 2,808 yards and 24 TD's with just 8 INT's, and adding 364 rushing and 7 scores. Their problem was that he was the second-leading rusher and was only 94 yards behind  the leader, Connor Walendzak. Incarnate Word transfer Zach Calzada was finally named the starter by Mark Stoops for Kentucky's opener. Calzada began his collegiate career at Texas A&M in 2019, but injuries and the Covid season have made him one of those players who turned college into a career and he is now in his 7th and final season. After 3 seasons with the Aggies, he transferred to Auburn in 2022 and did not play due to an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. He transferred to UIW and had 2 solid seasons, throwing for 6,342 yards with 54 TD's and 18 interceptions. Kentucky was next-to-last in the SEC on offense a year ago, and 10th on defense. Toledo was 6th on offense in the MAC and 5th on defense. Kentucky won the only other meeting of these teams in 2019 at home, 38-24.

SUATSKentucky won 24-16

Texas by 0.57 over OHIO STATE (-1.5) - Saturday, August 30. Lee Corso's last appearance on ESPN GameDay where it he first donned Brutus as the headgear pick that started the tradition. Texas begins the 2025 season against the last team it played in the 2024 season, falling 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl semifinal College Football Playoff game. Arch Griffin is now the starting QB while Ohio State turns to Julian Sayin who first committed to Alabama during the 2023 season. He saw no action with the Tide and threw all of 12 passes in four total relief appearances in 2024 for Ohio State, completing 5 for 84 yards with 1 TD pass that came against Western Michigan. These are the No. 1 and 2 teams in the Coaches' Poll and the FWAA-NFF Super 16 Poll with the Longhorns at the top of each. They are the Nos. 4 (Texas) and 21 teams in the Congrove Computer Rankings preseason projections, and they rank 5th (Texas) and 8th in those computer rankings to start the season.

SUATSOhio State won 14-7

Texas-El Paso by 0.03 over UTAH STATE (-5.5) - Saturday, August 30. The No. 118 Miners visit the No. 127 Miners (Congrove Computer Rankings). If you're planning to wager on this one, our best advice might be to call 1-888-ADMIT-IT. Bronco Mendenhall fled New Mexico after one season, though a 5-7 season was fairly remarkable. Now he moves back to Utah where he spent 11 seasons coaching BYU where he was 99-43 before leaving for Virginia (36-38). He's a combined 41-45 at any school not named BYU. Scotty Walden was 3-9 in his first campaign with UTEP after leaving Austin Peay with a 26-14 record in four seasons. He's 37-29 all-time.

SUATSUtah State won 28-16

Abilene Christian by 2.46 over Tulsa (-5.5) - Saturday, August 30. A rare pick for a FCS team to knock off a FBS school. This will be the debut of Tre Lamb as head coach with the Golden Hurricane after 1 season at ETSU (7-5) and 4 at Gardner-Webb (20-20). Tulsa is predicted to finish the season at No. 126 in the FBS Congrove Computer Rankings with a 2-10 record while ACU is picked to go 8-4 and rank 27 among FCS schools. The Wildcats made it to the second round of the FCS playoffs a year ago where they fell 51-31 at eventual national champion North Dakota State. Keith Patterson is 21-15 at the school in three seasons.

SUATSTulsa won 35-7

OREGON STATE by 3.45 over Cal (-2.5) - Saturday, August 30. On Saturday, the odds at FanDuel.com flipped this game to favoring Cal by 2.5 and other major sportsbooks had the Golden Bears by as much as 3. The computer projection, as listed above, has Oregon State by 3.45 points.

SUATSCal won 34-15

Georgia Southern by 13.51 over FRESNO STATE (-1.5) - Saturday, August 30. The moneyline favorite bounced back-and-forth and settled on Fresno State at kickoff.

SUATSFresno State won 42-14

The computer has called some remarkable upsets in recent history. Here are just a few examples. It began the 2025 season by correctly picking Iowa State's upset of Kansas State in the very first game of the season. It finished 2024 by winning 7 of 12 upset picks, despite interim head coaches and sit-outs by top players. Also in 2024, it had Ole Miss over Georgia and the Rebels won 28-10. Earlier in the year, it had Oregon by 1 against a 3.5-point spread for Ohio State and the Ducks won by 1 with a 32-31 final. It had Alabama's upset of Georgia to end the Bulldogs' streaks of 42 regular season wins and 16 straight true road wins. The same day, it also had Louisiana-Lafayette winning at Wake Forest and five more upset wins for a total of seven in one day. Earlier in 2024, it had USC over LSU, Notre Dame over Texas A&M, and Toledo over Mississippi State. The following week, it correctly picked Toledo to lose to Western Kentucky, and SMU by 10.11 when the line favored TCU by 2.5 (SMU won by 24). In 2023, it nailed South Alabama over Oklahoma State, Sacramento State over Stanford, Jacksonville State winning its first game as a FBS school, and FSU upsetting LSU for the second straight season. In week 12 of 2023, it picked UCF (4-5) over Oklahoma State (7-2) during a week in which the computer went 7-3 on outright upset winners and 8-2 against the spread. In 2022, it had FSU over LSU, Kentucky's win at Florida, Syracuse over NC State and TCU over Oklahoma State. It went 4-for-4 with its upset picks on November 19, 2022, including unranked Arkansas over ranked Ole Miss. Further back, the computer correctly picked Clemson's 2018 upset over Alabama in the Natty after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida. In 2020, it called Indiana's upsets of Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. That same season, the Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada.