About the Data

Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at DocSports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The home team is capitalized.

Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct.

SU ATS
This Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
Last Week 5-4 (.556) 1-8 (.111)
This Season 38-15 (.717) 24-29 (.453)
Last Season 38-17 (.691) 28-27 (.509)

HOUSTON (-10.5) by 4.42 over Tulane - Thursday, November 15.
The Cougars started 7-1 against a very weak schedule as evidenced by consecutive losses in the past 2 weeks to mediocre programs, SMU and Temple. Houston has the better offense, while Tulane has the better defense. However, the Green Wave have proven to be more than capable at running the ball as RB's Darius Bradwell (135) and Cory Dauphine (121) both eclipsed the 100-yard mark in the win at USF.
Matchup

Wyoming (-2.5) by 3.46 over Air Force - Saturday, November 17.
I'm not looking for Wyoming to rout the Falcons - only to top the 2-1.2 at home. These teams own identical records of 4-6 overall and 2-4 in the Mountain West. The loser is eliminated from any chance at a blow bid. The Cowboys have won the last 2 meetings, and 4 of the last 5. The AFA leads the conference in rushing, and Wyoming is 4th. The Cowboys are second in rushing defense in the conference and the Falcons are 3rd.
Matchup

Boston College (-1.5) by 8.08 over FLORIDA STATE - Saturday, November 17.
The computer trend line has the Eagles by 13. BC out-ranks FSU on both sides of the ball. The Eagles won last year's game 35-3.
Matchup

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct.

SU ATS
This Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
Last Week 2-0 (1.000) 1-1 (.500)
This Season 21-6 (.778) 15-12 (.556)
Last Season 30-10 (.750) 22-18 (.550)

Memphis (-8) by 5.47 over SMU - Friday, November 16.
Memphis (6-4, 3-3) hits the road to face SMU (5-5, 4-2). The combined record of the FBS teams Memphis has beaten is 9-40. SMU's wins have come against opponents that are a cumulative 15-25.  The Mustangs have come on strong over the last four games with wins over Tulane, Houston and UConn, and an overtime loss to Cincinnati.
Matchup

OKLAHOMA (-36) by 31.02 over Kansas - Saturday, November 17.
The computer trend line is closer to 27.  Over the last two games (close wins vs. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State), the Sooner have given up over 1,100 yards and 93 points. That sieve-like defense is what gives me reason to believe Kansas will have their opportunities to score. Despite total domination by Oklahoma in this series, and utter historical abomination by Kansas on the road, this one stays under. 
Matchup

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis.

SU ATS
This Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
Last Week 2-4 (.333) 3-3 (.500)
This Season 33-36 (.478) 41-28 (.594)
Last Season 49-54 (.476) 62-41 (.602)

Computer's upset picks are .674 ATS since early last November - The computer had its worst week in awhile on upset picks, but still went 2-4 straight up and 3-3 against the spread. Those results come after 3 fantastic winning weeks where the computer was a combined 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS. You have to go back 5 weeks to find the last non-winning performance when it was 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS but correctly picked the biggest upset play that week of Iowa State over West Virginia. This season, the computer has also correctly predicted Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida. Since the second week of November 2017, the computer's upset picks are 53-42 (.558) SU, 64-31 (.674) ATS.

Arizona State by 2.26 over OREGON (-4.5) - Saturday, November 17.
The computer trend line has ASU by 3. The Ducks are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home, but they are 8-1 outright in their last 9 at Autzen Stadium. These teams have identical numbers on total offense. The Sun Devils are allowing 17 fewer yards per game than their counterpart on defense.
Matchup

Texas Christian by 4.18 over BAYLOR (-2) Saturday, November 17.
TCU (4-6) has fallen to 7th in the Big 12 in total offense while Baylor is 5th. The Horned Frogs are averaging just 24.9 points per game on the season and only 19.25 over the last 8. The Bears (5-5) have been held to 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. TCU is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games and 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games. But Baylor is only 2-6 ATS in its last 8 at home. There's just nothing I can find that separates these two teams on a pick basis, other than the computer trend line which has Baylor by 3.
Matchup

Nevada-Las Vegas by 1.39 over HAWAII (-6.5) - Saturday, November 17.
The computer trend line tilts to the Rainbow Warriors (6-5) by 6. UNLV (3-7) could have some momentum in its favor, fresh off a 27-24 upset win at San Diego State as a 19-point underdog. Meanhwile, Hawaii lost its 4th straight in which its scoring output has fallen in each game, from 23 to 22 to 20 to 17. Surprisingly - given the distance their opponent has to travel - Hawaii is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games.
Matchup

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