About the Data

Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at DocSports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The home team is capitalized.

Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare. Senior editor Mike Mitchell believes these have the best chance of being correct.

SU ATS
This Week 2-2 (.500) 0-4 (.000)
Last Week 2-0 (1.000) 2-0 (1.000)
This Season 10-4 (.714) 8-6 (.571)
Last Season 55-23 (.705) 39-39 (.500)

BOISE STATE (-13.5) by 21.37 over Virginia - UVa has 2 away victories going back through the 2012 season. Traveling across country to Boise, playing on the smurf turf.... none of it will be easy for the Cavaliers. The Broncos won 56-14 in Charlottesville in 2015. Matchup

SUATSVirginia won 42-23.

TENNESSEE (-26) by 28.83 over Massachusetts - This should be a methodical destruction in the 35-3 to 45-7 range. Matchup

SUATSTennessee won 17-13.

HOUSTON (-7) by 13.66 over Texas Tech - Houston QB Kyle Allen (Texas A&M transfer) has completed 56-of-65 throws in his first two games. The only problem is that 2 of his 9 incomplete throws were interceptions. These teams haven't met since 2010. Texas Tech has allowed 43.74 points per game to FBS foes over the last 3 seasons. They allowed 45 at Arizona State in their last outing. Matchup

SUATSTexas Tech won 27-24.

NAVY (-10.5) by 22.06 over Cincinnati - Cincinnati ranks 89th at stopping the run. Navy ranks 10th at pushing the ball down your throat. The Bearcats rank 123rd on offense. These teams haven't met since 1956. This is a cross-divisional matchup in the American Athletic Conference. Matchup

SUATSNavy won 42-32.

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers. Senior editor Mike believes these have the best chance of being correct.

SU ATS
This Week 3-0 (1.000) 2-1 (.667)
Last Week 1-1 (.500) 1-1 (.500)
This Season 10-2 (.833) 7-5 (.583)
Last Season 54-12 (.818) 29-18 (.617)

Alabama (-19.5) by 7.86 over VANDERBILT - In the CCR Top 130, this is a meeting of the 18th-ranked Commodores hosting the 5th-ranked Tide. The disparity between the projected computer margin and the actual spread is just too large for me to ignore. Vandy is coming off a 14-7 win over Kansas State in Nashville for its first victory over a ranked, nonconference opponent since 1946. Matchup

SUATSAlabama won 59-0.

Florida (-4) by 1.32 over KENTUCKY - I'm sensing an outright win by Kentucky to break a losing streak that goes back to 1986. The Wildcats have a wealth of returning talent and are laden with upperclassmen. Mark Stoops appears to have changed the mentality and culture of the Kentucky football program. Matchup

SUATSFlorida won 28-27.

Penn State (-12) by 10.87 over IOWA - When I last checked, the line had climbed to as high as 13. Iowa QB Nate Stanley has thrown 10 TD's against just 1 INT. Penn State QB Trace McSorly has thrown 9 TDs and 2 INTs. The Nittany Lions have better defensive numbers, but have faced teams with weaker offenses. Matchup

SUATSPenn State won 21-19.

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. Senior editor Mike Mitchell does not select these games, but does offer commentary.

SU ATS
This Week 1-6 (.143) 3-4 (.429)
Last Week 4-5 (.444) 4-5 (.444)
This Season 12-23 (.343) 17-18 (.486)
Last Season 33-52 (.388) 42-43 (.494)

Army West Point by 6.59 over TULANE (-4) - The Black Knights rank 2nd in rushing offense. Tulane ranks 83rd at stopping the run, but managed to hold Navy to 191 yards on the ground in a 23-21 loss in Annapolis 2 weeks ago. The Green Wave rank 106th in total offense. Army is 4-2 in the last 6 meetings with Tulane and 3 of the 4 wins were by at least 18 points. I like the Black Knights' chances of keeping this under the spread, if not winning outright. Matchup

SUATSTulane won 21-17

Florida Atlantic by 2.13 over BUFFALO (-3.5) - FAU is coming off a 45-0 shutout of Bethune-Cookman. I'm not one to sing praises of Lane Kiffin, and there's a lot of youth and transfers on his team, but the level of talent and athleticism should tilt in favor of the Owls. Matchup

SUATSBuffalo won 34-31.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 2.65 over Miami, Ohio (-1) - Central Michigan was only a 4.79-point computer underdog at Syracuse but had their hats handed to them in a 41-17 road loss. Miami had a late 4th quarter lapse on Saturday and turned a 17-6 lead with under 3 minutes left against Cincinnati into a 21-17 loss. This game is a true toss-up, so I would be inclined to go with the Chippewas at home. Matchup

SUATSMiami (O) won 31-14.

CHARLOTTE by 0.34 over Georgia State (-3.5) - The ugly game of the week features No. 116 Georgia State at No. 125 Charlotte. You don't want to touch this one. Matchup

SUATSGeorgia State won 28-0.

NORTH CAROLINA by 9.23 over Duke (-3) - UNC was a surprisingly easy 30-point winner at ODU on Saturday while the Blue Devils dispatched Baylor by 14. This is the 104th meeting of these two schools whose campuses are just minutes apart. The computer's preseason margin on this game favored the Tar Heels by 14.58. North Carolina was projected to go 7-5, Duke 2-10. But Duke has already bagged 2 wins they were not expected to have go their way (Northwestern and Baylor). Regardless, I'm still barely in the UNC camp on this one. Matchup

SUATSDuke won 27-17.

Idaho by 2.16 over SOUTH ALABAMA (-4.5) - Both teams enter at 1-2 with the lone victory coming against FCS opposition. The computer trend line has this game fractionally in the Jaguars' favor.  Matchup

SUATSIdaho won 29-23 in 2 OT.

SAN JOSE STATE by 5.47 over Utah State (-2.5) - OK - maybe this one is uglier than the Georgia State-Charlotte game listed above. 119th ranked Utah State visits 121st-ranked San Jose State. Both teams will likely wind up last in their respective Mountain West Conference division. There is no real home-field advantage as SJSU rarely fills half the seats, but there is a travel disadvantage and for that, I'd take the Spartans if you double-dogged dared me to make a pick. Matchup

SUATSUtah State won 61-10.

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