About the Data

Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at DocSports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The home team is capitalized.

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis.

SU ATS
This Week 0-1 (.000) 0-1 (.000)
Last Week 0-1 (.000) 0-1 (.000)
This Season 22-35 (.386) 29-28 (.509)
Last Season 46-43 (.517) 62-27 (.697)

The computer was 0-1 SU and ATS on its upset picks this week. Since early November of 2017, the computer's upset picks are 88-83 (.515) SU, 109-62 (.637) ATS - The computer was 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS last week after going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS a week ago. The perfect marks come on the heels of a 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS performance in week 9. It had slipped to 3-6 SU and 3-6 ATS in week 8 for a second straight sub-.500 performance after going 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS in week 7. Prior to that, the upset picks had gone, 2-1 SU and 3-0 in week 6, and 5-2 SU and 5-2 in week 5. The computer was 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS record in week 4, 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in week 3.  1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS in week 2, and a dismal 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS on opening weekend. The computer has called both UCF upset losses to Pitt and Cincinnati, the first of which ended a 25-game winning streak, and the latter that ended a 19-game conference winning streak.

Last season, the computer also had a bad opening week, but recovered to go a remarkable 62-27 ATS. In 2018, the computer correctly picked Clemson in an upset over Alabama in the national championship game after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games (5-5 straight up). On the conference championship weekend, the computer correctly forecast its only upset pick of the week to improve to 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS over the last two weeks of the season. The week before that, the computer was 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS. Just prior to that, the computer had one of its worst weeks in awhile but still went 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS. Those results came after 3 fantastic winning weeks where the computer was a combined 14-6 SU and 14-4 ATS. Among the computer's more spectacular upset picks last season were Iowa State over West Virginia, Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida.

North Carolina State by 1.85 over GEORGIA TECH (-1) - Thursday, Nov. 21 - The computer trend line agrees with the sportsbooks and makes GT a 1.01-point favorite. However, the statistics would slightly favor NC State which outranks Georgia Tech 10th to 14th on offense, and 7th to 9th on defense. (ACC ranks). This Thursday night prime-time battle features one team with aspirations of still becoming bowl eligible (NC State) and another team that has no chance (Georgia Tech). The Congrove Computer Rankings have the Wolfpack (4-6 1-5) at No. 89 this week and the Yellow Jackets (2-8, 1-6) at No. 116. NC State has dropped 4 straight, including two losses as a slim computer favorite. The Pack's lone conference win came at home vs. Syracuse, while Georgia Tech's only ACC victory came on the road at Miami.
Matchup

SUATSGeorgia Tech won 28-26.

Georgia Southern by 2.77 over ARKANSAS STATE (-1) - Saturday, Nov. 23 - The computer trend line favors Georgia Southern by just under a full point (0.96). Both teams are bowl eligible. The Eagles are a game out of first in the Sun Belt East, and the Red Wolves are in the same position in the Sun Belt West. Georgia Southern ranks 9th out of 10 conference teams in total offense while Arkansas State ranks 5th. GSU ranks 3rd on defense and ASU is 4th.
Matchup

Houston by 0.92 over TULSA (-3) - Saturday, Nov. 23 - These teams are 4 yards per game apart on offense while Tulsa has a better defense (412 ypg vs. 467.6). Houston's 'd' ranks 118th nationally. Both teams have been eliminated from bowl consideration. The Cougars have won 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Golden Hurricane. The computer trend line has Tulsa by 1.
Matchup

Louisiana Tech by 4.26 over UAB (-5) - Saturday, Nov. 23 - The computer trend lines pushes Louisiana Tech's advantage to 6.48 points, but the Bulldogs will be without suspended junior wide receiver Adrian Hardy and QB J'Mar Smith. And Louisiana Tech backup freshman QB Aaron Allen is questionable after suffering a hand injury in last week's loss to Marshall while staring in place of Smith. Add to that the fact that UAB has won 17 straight home games and the Vegas oddsmakers are looking smarter than the computer for this one. The Bulldogs (8-2, 5-1) are tied for the CUSA West lead with Southern Miss. The Blazers (7-3, 4-2) are a game behind both in the standings, but essentially trail Southern Miss by 2 games by virtue of a 37-2 beatdown in Hattiesburg two weeks ago. Louisiana Tech leads the league in offense while UAB ranks 10th out of 14 teams. UAB is tops in defense and the Bulldogs rank 7th.
Matchup

Syracuse by 4.63 over LOUISVILLE (-8.5) - Saturday, Nov. 23 - OK, we are more than a little shocked by the disparity between the 8.5-point Vegas line favoring Louisville and the computer's 4.63-point margin favoring Syracuse. The answer lies in the computer trend line which agrees with the oddsmakers and has the Cardinals favored by 9.11 points.
Matchup

Southern Methodist by 3.98 over NAVY (-3) - Thursday, Nov. 23 - The computer trend line takes Navy by 7.26 points. An argument for SMU would include the fact that the Mustangs have only allowed an average of 124.4 yards per game rushing and have surrendered just 8 rushing touchdowns.
Matchup

UNLV by 2.67 over San Jose State (-4.5) - Saturday, Nov. 23 - 120th-ranked UNLV (2-8) is one of just 2 Mountain West teams that have been eliminated from the bowl chase. SJSU needs wins this week and next week at Fresno State to finish 6-6. The computer trend line likes the Spartans to get that first win out of the way as it favors SJSU by 5.15 points. San Jose State has won 8 of the last 9 meetings.
Matchup

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Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct.

SU ATS
This Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
Last Week 7-0 (1.000) 6-1 (.857)
This Season 42-12 (.778) 25-29 (.463)
Last Season 42-20 (.677) 26-36 (.419)

WYOMING (-7.5) by 11.77 over Colorado State - Friday, Nov. 22 -  The line had dropped to 6.5 as of Wednesday afternoon making this selection even more attractive. The computer trend line favors the Cowboys by 12.42 which is slightly higher than the computer's current spread. Wyoming has won 7 straight home games and is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
Matchup

APPALACHIAN STATE (-28.5) by 30.77 over Texas State - Saturday, Nov 23 - The line at William Hill had climbed to 29.5 by Wednesday, but the computer's trend line of 42.62 far exceeds that. Texas State gets nearly 75% of its offense through the air and the Appalachian State pass defense is tops in the conference (11th in the nation).
Matchup

CINCINNATI (-10) by 15.84 over Temple - Saturday Nov,. 23 - The Bearcats have won 8 straight overall and 11 consecutive home games. Cincinnati is 6-4 ATS this season. The computer tend line is -15 which is 50% above the spread.
Matchup

GEORGIA (-13) by 14.76 over Texas A&M - Saturday, Nov. 23 - This game could still widely be found at -13 to -13.5 on Wednesday and the computer trend line favors the Bulldogs by 18.08 points. The teams are statistically even on offense but Georgia has the best defense in the SEC. On a national level, the "Dawgs rank 6th overall on defense, 3rd in rushing defense and 20th in pass defense.
Matchup

OHIO STATE (-18) by 19.08 over Penn State - Saturday, Nov. 23 - The Buckeyes have covered in 8 of their 10 games this season behind the nation's top scoring offense and No. 1 defense for points allowed. The computer trend line favors Ryan Day's troops by 21.77 points.
Matchup

VIRGINIA TECH (-4) by 6.06 over Pittsburgh - Saturday, Nov. 23 - The ACC Coastal race can get cleared up this weekend if the Hokies take care of business against Pitt to set up a de facto divisional championship playoff game next week at Virginia. Virginia Tech has won 5 of its last 6, and Pitt has won 6 of its last 7. Bud Foster's defense has allowed averages of just 217.5 yards and 8.5 points in its last two wins over Wake Forest (36-17) and Georgia Tech (45-0).
Matchup

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct.

SU ATS
This Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
Last Week 6-0 (1.000) 3-3 (.500)
This Season 35-13 (.729) 28-20 (.583)
Last Season 27-7 (.794) 19-15 (.559)

Ball State (-3) by 2.70 over KENT STATE - Saturday, Nov. 23 - The line for Ball State was up to 3.5 at William Hill on Wednesday and the computer trend line has the Cardinals by only 1.21 points. Kent State is 3-1 at home while Ball State is 2-3 away from home. Both teams are 4-6 overall and 6-4 ATS. Ball State has owned the series, 21-7, but the teams have split the last four.
Matchup

LOUISIANA-MONROE (-5.5) by 2.62 over Coastal Carolina - Saturday, Nov. 23 - The computer trend line actually favors the Chanticleers by a slim 0.44 points. Coastal is 6-3 ATS in the last 9 games. UL-M is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games and 1-8 ATS in its last 9 at home.
Matchup

WAKE FOREST (-6.5) by 4.68 over Duke - Saturday, Nov. 23 - Talk about sudden slumps. After a 7-1 start, Wake has been outscored 88-20 over the last two weeks by Virginia Tech and Clemson. Duke's 45-10 win at Virginia Tech seems to have had the reverse effect, kicking the Hokies into high gear and leaving the Blue Devils flat. Duke is just 1-5 in its last 6. We're going solely with the computer trend line on this one which has Duke favored outright by 2.8 points as the team aims to pay back the Deacs for the 59-7 humiliation they took in Durham last year.
Matchup

North Texas (-5.5) by 5.09 over RICE - Saturday, Nov, 23 - The line was up to 6.5 on Wednesday which makes this an even better play. The Owls ended a 20-game losing streak to FBS schools with a 31-28 win at Middle Tennessee this past Saturday. Now it's time for Rice to give the home fans something to cheer about. The computer trend line actually favors Rice by 4.76 points.
Matchup

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