About the Data

Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at DocSports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The home team is capitalized.

Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct.

SU ATS
This Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
Last Week 0-2 (.000) 0-2 (.000)
This Season 42-18 (.700) 26-34 (.433)
Last Season 38-17 (.691) 28-27 (.509)

Bowl picks to come - Please check back later.

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct.

SU ATS
This Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
Last Week 1-0 (1.000) 0-1 (.000)
This Season 26-6 (.813) 17-15 (.531)
Last Season 30-10 (.750) 22-18 (.550)

Bowl picks to come - Please check back later.

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis.

SU ATS
This Week 0-0 (.000) 0-0 (.000)
Last Week 1-0 (1.000) 1-0 (1.000)
This Season 40-38 (.513) 49-29 (.628)
Last Season 49-54 (.476) 62-41 (.602)

Computer's upset picks are .692 ATS since early last November - The computer correctly forecast its only upset pick of the week to improve to 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS over the past two weeks, a week after going 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS. Three weeks ago, the computer had one of its worst weeks in awhile but still went 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS. Those results come after 3 fantastic winning weeks where the computer was a combined 14-6 SU and 14-4 ATS. This season, the computer correctly picked Iowa State over West Virginia. Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida. Since the second week of November 2017, the computer's upset picks are 60-44 (.577) SU, 72-32 (.692) ATS.

Arizona State by 2.70 over Fresno State (-4.5) - Saturday, December 15 - Las Vegas Bowl.
The Sun Devils haven't played in this game since 2011 when Boise State ran them out of the building 56-24. Arizona State is 3-0 all-time versus Fresno State, but hasn't played the Bulldogs since 1941 when ASU was also called the Bulldogs. These teams are statistically even on offense while Fresno State has the statistical advantage on defense. However, the Sun Devils played the tougher schedule even though it was 'down' year for the PAC-12.  A story to watch is the absence of ASU's top pass-catcher, N’Keal Harry (73 receptions for 1,088 yards and 9 TD's). Harry has signed with an agent for the upcoming draft.
Matchup to come.

Eastern Michigan by 2.16 over Georgia Southern (-1) Saturday, December 15 - Camellia Bowl.
A battle of Eagles. This is only the third bowl game in the history of EMU football and the second for GSU. Chris Creighton has now led Eastern Michigan to two bowl games in three years after the school went 20 consecutive years without a winning record prior to Creighton's arrival. Georgia Southern has only been playing FBS football since 2014 and went bowling in its first year of eligibility in 2015. Since then, Georgia Southern has had four different head coaches. Willie Fritz left for Tulane after the final 2015 regular season game and Dell McGee was interim head coach for the 58-27 win over Bowling Green in the GoDaddy Bowl. Tyson Summers was fired after a year-and-a-half produced a 5-13 mark so Chad Lunsford took over as interim head coach the rest of the 2016 season. Lunsford was named official head coach just before the end of that season and turned the program around to a 9-3 record this year, thanks largely by reverting back to a triple-option offense that enters the bowl season ranked 8th in the nation. Eastern Michigan's only bowl win came in the 1987 California Bowl and the computer favors EMU by 2.16 points to win this, though the computer trend line agrees with the oddsmakers and favors Georgia Southern by 1.
Matchup to come.

Northern Illinois by 0.17 over Alabama-Birmingham (-2) - Tuesday, December 18 - Boca Raton Bowl.
It's the first-ever meeting between these two schools. Northern Illinois is riding a 5-bowl losing streak and is just 4-8 in its bowl history. UAB has never won a bowl game. The Blazers got here by avenging a regular season loss to Middle Tennessee. They fell to Middle Tennessee in the final regular season game, but then won the rematch a week later in the Conference USA title game. The Huskies got here by upsetting Buffalo in the MAC Championship game. Statistically speaking, UAB enters the bowl season with the 13th-best defense in the nation but Conference USA was the lowest-rated conference in all of college football, just a notch below the MAC. We said NIU's DE Sutton Smith would be the difference-maker in the MAC title game vs. Buffalo and he registered 10 tackles (8 solo), 3-1/2 tackles for loss and 2 sacks. As a team, NIU ranks 31st on defense. The problem for the Huskies comes on offense where they were 8th-worst in the nation in yards per game and 11th-worst in point production. UAB was 67th in yardage and 62nd in points.
Matchup to come.

Ohio by 5.62 over San Diego State (-3) - Wednesday, December 19 - Frisco Bowl.
This is the first meeting between the Bobcats and the Aztecs. The computer's preseason forecast nailed Ohio's record of 8-4 and only missed by one on San Diego State's final mark of 7-5 (predicted 8-4).  SDSU is a 10-point underdog on the computer trend line. The Aztecs fell to 74th in rushing this season after being a top 14 running team for 3 straight seasons behind Rashaad Penny and Donnel Pumphrey. Ohio was 17th in rushing this season with A.J. Ouelette gaining 1,142 yards on the ground and scoring 12 TD's. The Bobcats also got 831 yards and 8 TD's out of Maleek Irons while QB Nathan Rourke ran for 816 and 13 scores. Rourke also threw for 2,228 yards on a 22-7 TD-INT ratio and a 61.1% completion clip.
Matchup to come.

Wake Forest by 6.90 over Memphis (-5) - Saturday, December 22 - Birmingham Bowl.
The computer trend line has this as a pick 'em game in the first meeting between these schools since 1967. Memphis' 4th-ranked offense features RB Darrell Henderson who enters the bowl season at No. 2 in the nation with 1,909 yards and 22 TD's. QB Brady White threw for 3,125 yards with 25 touchdowns and 8 picks. Wake's offense is not nearly as potent, but ranks a respectable 33. The Deacs lost freshman starting QB Sam Hartman to a season-ending leg injury in the Syracuse game on November 3. Sophomore Jamie Newman started the last 3 games and had his most impressive game in the season finale versus Duke when he led his team to a 59-7 win with an 18-of-23, 4 TD performance. Neither team has done much on defense with Memphis ranked 84th and Wake 116th.
Matchup to come.

Louisiana Tech by 7.67 over HAWAII (-1) - Saturday, December 22 - Hawaii Bowl.
This holiday classic has the No. 84 Rainbow Warriors and against No. 71 Louisiana Tech. Hawaii is the lowest-ranked school out of all the bowl teams, despite an 8-5 record. Still, the computer trend line favors Hawaii by 4 as the Rainbow Warriors gained 6.01 power points over the course of the season while the Bulldogs dropped 5.64 power points. Hawaii;'s passing offense was 9th nationally as Cole McDonald ranked 5th with 3,790 yards, 35 TD's and 8 INT's. The Bulldogs were 95th on offense. On defense, Louisiana State ranked 33rd and Hawaii 101st.
Matchup to come.

Boston College by 2.52 over Boise State (-3) - Wednesday, December 26 - SERVPRO First Responder Bowl.
Check back later for commentary and analysis.
Matchup to come.

Duke by 9.02 over Temple (-3) - Thursday, December 27 - Independence Bowl.
Check back later for commentary and analysis.
Matchup to come.

Virginia Tech by 8.65 over Cincinnati (-5.5) - Monday, December 31 - Military Bowl.
Check back later for commentary and analysis.
Matchup to come.

Michigan State by 8.44 over Oregon (-2.5) - Monday, December 31 - Redbox Bowl.
Check back later for commentary and analysis.
Matchup to come.

Northwestern by 0.91 over Utah (-6.5) - Monday, December 31 - Holiday Bowl.
Check back later for commentary and analysis.
Matchup to come.

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