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Dave
Congrove is a college football fanatic who devised the Congrove
Computer Rankings in 1993 as a means of providing an unbiased
comparison of every Division 1-A college football team.
His approach is vastly different from the numerous computer rankings
available and the goals can be summarized in two words - simplicity
and accountability.
Simplicity. The computer program is designed to predict
who is supposed to beat who and by how much.
What actually happens when the game is played directly alters
subsequent predictions. A unique "season-averaging variable"
prevents wild fluctuations and renders it meaningless to "run
up the score".
A strong team that is supposed to whip an obviously out-matched
opponent by 40, but wins by 60, only sees a fraction of the difference
added to their power rating. If they win by only 20, the failure
to "cover" the other 20 points also declines their
power rating only fractionally.
The rise and fall of a team's Power Ratings are weighted toward
the strength of the team they played, and whether they won or
lost.
Accountability. The Congrove Computer Rankings are designed
to predict the outcome. Success is determined by how many
games were predicted correctly.
College Football Poll.com not only publishes the rankings, but also provides the computer's pick of every
game and tracks the success rate by each team and conference.
Our users can plainly see where the computer is right, and where
it is wrong.
Additionally, the Season
Preview section features team pages that highlight the
computer's predicted record of every team for every year since
1993, and compares it to their actual record.
Results. The computer has picked the winner in 74.7% of
all games played since 1993 (7,828-2,645) while beating the spread
in 54.2% of those games (5,221-4,419) (year-by-year record of computer).
For 2007, it projected the exact regular season record of 11 teams,
came within one victory on 33 others, and within two victories
on 31 more teams.
The computer has predicted
the national title match-up three times (1993, 1998 and
2005), and at least one contestant every year except 1994, 1997,
2001 and 2006. The team it picked to win the title did so three
times (1993, 1998, and 1999), and lost in the title game four
times (2000, 2003, 2004, 2005).
More. We bring you much more than college football computer
rankings. Pre-game and post-game columns are just a small part of the original editorial content,
plus there is season historical data and the best portal to official
college sites and independent message boards found anywhere on
the net.
See more content choices by visiting our Site Map.
Happy surfing from College Football Poll.com. |
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