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Three games have already been stricken from this week's slate, including the second games in-a-row for James Madison and Robert Morris.
James Madison, ranked 1st in the FCS STATS Media Poll and 2nd in the Congrove Computer Rankings, continues to deal with Covid issues and has put the football program on pause. The Dukes were slated to host Richmond this weekend, but that game is off the list. This past weekend's scheduled game vs. William & Mary was also canceled.
Robert Morris also continues to deal with the virus and its game at Charleston Southern has been canceled. Last week's scheduled RMU contest with Monmouth was also put on hold.
And speaking of Monmouth, the Hawks have had a second consecutive game deleted because of Covid issues with their opponent. Last weekend, it was the aforementioned game with Robert Morris, and now this week's game at Gardner-Webb has also been canceled due to issues within the GWU program.
That still leaves us with a hefty schedule of 37 contests, involving 73 of the 94 teams that are scheduled to play at least one game this spring. One of those contests has Tarleton State hosting a D-2 school - Midwestern State (OK).
Ten of those contests are forecast as upsets by the computer against the opening lines from the oddsmakers. In 8 of those 10 games, the sportsbooks favor the visitor while the computer takes the home team (in CAPS). The computer's opposite plays are ALABAMA STATE over Jackson State, ALBANY over Rhode Island, BUCKNELL over Lafayette, NEW HAMPSHIRE over Delaware, THE CITADEL over East Tennessee State, INCARNATE WORD over Southeast Louisiana, McNeese State over NORTHWESTERN STATE (LA.), YOUNGSTOWN STATE over South Dakota, BRYANT over Wagner, and Southeast Missouri State over JACKSONVILLE STATE.
Topping the list of big matchups is the battle for The Nickel Trophy when North Dakota visits North Dakota State. The teams have met 112 times, but only twice since 2004. The Fighting Hawks lead the series 62-47-3 between the Missouri Valley Football Conference rivals, but are hefty underdogs by 32.39 points, according to the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com which have North Dakota at No. 7 and North Dakota State still No. 1.
The undefeated Hawks (4-0) rank 48th in total defense, but 21st in scoring defense, thanks to a +5 turnover margin. The Bison (4-1) are -3 in turnover margin, but rank 24th in total defense. North Dakota has been more consistent than the Bison on the offensive side of the ball, scoring more points and amassing more yards. All of those stats seem to indicate that this should be a fairly tight ballgame and a UND upset isn't out of the equation. North Dakota State hasn't lost twice in the same season since 2016 and has only does so two times since 2011.
No. 9 South Dakota Sate visits 13th-ranked Southern Illinois in another important MVFC game. Both teams are 3-1 in league play with the Jackrabbits having defeated Northern Iowa but bowing to North Dakota in their two biggest games, thus far. The Salukis are the team that halted North Dakota State's winning streak at 39 games, but also lost to North Dakota.
With covid sidelining No. 2 James Madison and No. 3 Monmouth, we skip to 4th-ranked Kennesaw State which hosts a No. 91 Dixie State program that is reclassifying this year from D2 to the FCS. The Trailblazers of St. George, Utah are traveling nearly 2,000 miles to Kennesaw, Georgia for this game and it's going to be a long ride back if the 26.76-point computer spread holds true.
No. 12 San Diego tops Dixie State's travel distance. The Toreros (1-0) will go a little over 2,000 miles to take on No. 76 Butler (0-1) in Indianapolis, just as the NCAA men's basketball tournament is starting up at venues around Indiana. San Diego has won 7 straight over the Bulldogs.
No. 5 Montana doesn't play until April 10th, 8th-ranked Portland State doesn't play until facing Montana on April 17, and 6th-ranked Weber State is idle.
No. 10 Sam Houston State, which embarrassed then-No. 13 Nicholls State 71-17 a week ago, is a surprisingly small 11.64-point favorite at Lamar. We think that number could be more in the 40-point range, given that the Cardinals rank 71st in scoring offense and 84th in scoring defense.
No. 14 Jacksonville State is 6-1 overall and ranked 14th, but is somehow listed as a 2.28-point underdog at home to a 45th-ranked SEMO squad that is 1-3. Keep in mind, however that Southeast Missouri's two losses this spring have come in double-overtime vs. Austin Peay last week, and by just 3 points to Murray State two weeks ago. The third loss by the Redhawks was in its only fall game, the "War for the Wheel" rivalry game with Southern Illinois. That was also just a 3-point setback. Jacksonville State had the only win last Fall for a FCS team over a FBS school with the Gamecocks won 19-10 at FIU. Jacksonville State's wins this spring have come against the three "Tennessee" teams of the OVC - Tech, State and Martin - which are all ranked 55th or lower.
No. 15 Delaware (2-0) has shot out of the box with big wins over Maine (37-0) and Stony Brook (31-3), but the Fightin' Blue Hens are a 6.42-point road underdog to No. 30 New Hampshire on Saturday. The Wildcats have just one game under their belt and that came two weeks ago when they fell 24-20 at home to Albany.
No. 16 Austin Peay was 0-3 in the fall when they played a solid Central Arkansas program and a pair of FBS schools, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. But after dropping their first game of Spring at Tennessee Tech, the Governors have notched wins over Tennessee State and SEMO. This week Austin Peay hosts UT-Martin as a 9.27-point favorite.
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