Weekly Preview For 9/30-10/2

September 30, 2021 by Staff

A 61-game slate this week kicks off on Thursday with a disappointing Miami squad hosting Virginia as an 11.94-point favorite, according to the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com. Oddsmakers had Miami favored by 3-1/2 at the open, but that number had risen to 5-1/2 by Wednesday night. The 'Canes, a preseason pick to contend for the ACC title, are 2-2, but will be playing their conference opener. Virginia is also 2-2, but already 0-2 in the ACC.

There is a trio of games on Friday, including Iowa at Maryland in just the second road game of the season for the Hawkeyes. Iowa is a 3-point betting favorite and a 7.09-point computer pick in this battle of two 4-0 teams that are also 1-0 in the Big Ten. This is the first 4-0 start for the Terps since 2016, and they haven't been 5-0 since 2001. Iowa went 12-0 in the regular season in 2015 before losing in the Big Ten Championship game and the Rose Bowl. The Hawkeyes are the No. 2 team in the computer rankings after topping the list a week ago, while Maryland rose from 29th to 17th this past week.

Top-ranked Alabama draws No. 9 Ole Miss to Tuscaloosa. In just his second season, Lane Kiffin has the Rebels off to a 3-0 start. More impressively, Ole Miss has won 7 of its last 8 games. The Tide opened as high as a 20-point favorite and as low as 10 before settling in at 14.5 at most sportsbooks. The computer has Alabama by 10-1/2.

Meanwhile, No. 3 Oklahoma visits Kansas State. The Sooners, 4-0 overall, have faced three FBS schools and won each by 7 points or less. Nonetheless, Lincoln Riley's squad is favored by 10-1/2 while the computer puts the margin at 7.36.

No. 4 Georgia hosts an Arkansas squad that is outperforming preseason expectations. The computer had the Hogs projected to start 2-2 and finish 6-6, but they are off to a 4-0 start and rose from 22nd to 14th this week in the computer rankings with their upset of Texas A&M in Arlington. They were a 17.54-point computer underdog in the preseason, but that number has dropped to 9.97.

No. 5 Notre Dame hosts No. 12 Cincinnati in the second-ever meeting between the two schools and the first since 1900 when the Irish won 58-0. The Bearcats have stayed as a 2-point favorite while the computer has Notre Dame by 6.96. 

No. 6 Michigan visits Wisconsin as a 3.98-point computer underdog, despite the Badgers' 1-2 start. On Wednesday night, the sportsbooks mostly had odds on this game at 1-1/2 in favor of Wisconsin.

No. 7 Oregon vists Stanford with the computer going opposite of the oddsmakers and taking the Cardinal by a scant 0.79 points.

Other games to watch this week include Arizona State at UCLA and Nevada at Boise State.

SEE: Weekly Picks


2 teams will play 2 FCS teams this fall (UConn and UMass), and 115 teams will play 1 FCS school for a total of 117 such matchups. 105 of those 117 games have already been played.

No FCS-FBS games will take place this week.

The FBS was 9-0 in such games last week and is 95-10 this season. Since we began tracking this in 2003, the FBS teams are now 1,564-138 (.919).

Last year, 30 FBS teams played a total of just 34 games against FCS schools and the FCS won just 1 game (1-33). That honor also went to Jacksonville State with its 19-10 victory over FIU.

Here are the FCS wins in 2021:
September 2: UC Davis 19, Tulsa 17
September 2: Eastern Washington 35, UNLV 33 (2 OT)
September 3: South Dakota State 42, Colorado State 23
September 4: Holy Cross 38, UConn 28
September 4: Montana 13, Washington 7
September 4: ETSU 23, Vanderbilt 3
September 11: Duquesne 28, Ohio 26
September 11: Jacksonville State 20, Florida State 17.
September 18: Incarnate Word 42, Texas State 34.
September 18: Northern Arizona 21, Arizona 19

This was the only FCS win vs. the FBS in 2020:
October 23: Jacksonville State 19, FIU 10

In 2019, FBS teams were 111-3 (.974) in such games. These were the only FCS wins that season:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)


ALABAMA - Won 18 straight games overall (FBS longest).
Last: Won 63-14 vs. Southern Miss on Saturday, Sept. 25.
Next: Hosts Ole Miss on Saturday, Oct. 2.

OHIO STATE - Won 22 straight conference games (FBS longest), and 10 straight road games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 59-7 at home over Akron on Saturday, Sept. 25.
Next: Visits Rutgers on Saturday, Oct. 2.

NOTRE DAME - Won 18 straight regular season games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 41-13 versus Wisconsin at Soldier Field in Chicago on Saturday, Sept. 25.
Next: Hosts Cincinnati on Saturday, Oct. 2.

CLEMSON - Won 30 straight home games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 27-21 in double-OT at N.C. State on Saturday, Sept. 25.
Next: Hosts Boston College on Saturday, Oct. 2.

NEW MEXICO - Lost 15 straight road games (tied with Akron for FBS longest).
Last: Lost 20-13 at UTEP on Saturday, Sept. 25.
Next: Hosts Air Force on Saturday, Oct. 2.

AKRON - Lost 14 straight road games (one behind New Mexico for FBS second-longest).
Last: Lost 59-7 at Ohio State on Saturday, Sept. 25.
Next: Hosts Ohio on Saturday, Oct. 2.

KANSAS - Lost 16 straight to FBS schools (tied with Arizona for FBS longest).
Last: Lost 52-33 at Duke on Saturday, Sept. 25.
Next: Visits Iowa State on Saturday, Oct. 2.

ARIZONA - Lost 16 straight over-all (FBS longest), and 15 straight to FBS schools (one behind Kansas for FBS longest).
Last: Lost 41-19 at Oregon on Saturday, Sept. 25.
Next: Hosts UCLA on Saturday, Oct. 9.

MASSACHUSETTS - Lost 15 straight over-all (FBS second-longest).
Last: Lost 53-3 at Coastal Carolina on Saturday, Sept. 25.
Next: Hosts Toledo on Saturday, Oct. 2.

UTEP - Ended a 15-game conference losing streak (FBS longest).
Last: Won 20-13 vs. New Mexico on Saturday, Sept. 25.
Next: Hosts Old Dominion on Saturday, Oct. 2.