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We enter the final week of the FCS regular season with only five of the ten AQ bids having been decided.
The Big South/OVC, MVFC, NEC, Patriot, and Pioneer will all be determined on the field Saturday, or possibly by tie-breaker procedures.
Only one of the five remaining AQ bids will be decided in a de facto conference championship game as Central Connecticut hosts Duquesne as a 5.53-point underdog in that battle for the NEC's automatic bid.
The other four unclaimed conference AQ bids each have three teams still alive.
Computer's pick to clinch: SEMO
Preseason Pick: UT-Martin
SEMO has the upper hand in the Big South-OVC Football Association with the opportunity to clinch the AQ bid at Tennessee State. However, the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com favor the Tigers by a scant 0.29 points.
Based on the Big South-OVC tie-breaker rules, the Redhawks can still harness the automatic FCS bid with a loss, so long as UT-Martin (-10.67) handles Lindenwood as expected.
Tennessee State not only needs to beat SEMO, but also needs 6.82-point favorite Tennessee Tech to lose at home to Eastern Illinois, and the Skyhawks to lose to the Lions.
Tennessee Tech gets the bid by defeating Eastern Illinois, if UT-Martin loses to Lindenwood and SEMO falls to Tennessee State.
Computer's pick to clinch: South Dakota State
Preseason Pick: The computer actually picked NDSU, South Dakota and SDSU to tie and require the use of the conference's tie-breaking procedures.
The top of the computer rankings have MVFC teams at Nos. 2 (NDSU), 3 (SDSU) and 4 (South Dakota), all lined up behind the Big Sky's Montana State which clinched its AQ bid this past weekend with a win at UC-Davis.
The Bison are in with a win at South Dakota, but the computer says that might not happen as it projects the Coyotes as 1.35-point computer favorite, while South Dakota State is an 11.60-point pick to win at Missouri State. In that scenario, the Jacks get the nod.
So, here is how the MVFC website summarizes all of the AQ bid possibilities:
Computer's pick to clinch: Duquesne
Preseason Pick: Duquesne
The FBS has the Duke Blue Devils. The FCS has the Duquesne Dukes and the CCSU Blue Devils, and they meet this week in the NEC de facto championship game with Duquesne favored by 5.53 in New Britain.
Computer's pick to clinch: Lehigh
Preseason Pick: Lehigh
Three teams are in contention - Bucknell, Lafayette and Lehigh.
In the regular season:
- Lehigh beat Holy Cross, but lost to Bucknell
- Bucknell beat Lehigh, but just lost 40-38 this past Saturday at Holy Cross
- Holy Cross beat Bucknell, but lost to Lehigh
Over-all, Lehigh and Holy Cross are 4-1. Bucknell is 3-2.
Lehigh gets in with a win at home over Lafayette. It seems only fitting that the 160th edition of THE RIVALRY could outright determine the Patriot League champion, and Lehigh gets to host the contest as a surprisingly large 10.22-point pick to win the game and secure the AQ bid.
If Lafayette has a Lee Corso moment and pulls a "not to fast" upset of the Mountain Hawks, Lehigh would would need Holy Cross (-6.89) to fall at Georgetown, and Bucknell (-6.79) to lose at home to Colgate.
If we're not mistaken, Bucknell can only get the bid if the Bison win on Saturday, and Lehigh and Holy Cross both lose, to initiate a 3-way tie-breaker. Holy Cross is in with a win this Saturday, IF Lehigh falls to Lafayette, and no matter what Bucknell does.
SEE: Patriot League tie-breaking procedures
Computer's pick to clinch: Drake
Preseason Pick: Drake
Drake could have clinched this past weekend with a win over Morehead State, but lost 29-20 at home. That ended a 17-game conference winning streak for the Bulldogs. Drake (6-1) still has a 1-game advantage over Butler, Morehead and San Diego who are all 5-2. Thus, Drake clinches with a win at Stetson on Saturday and is an 18.13-point favorite to do so.
According to the Pioneer League website, should Drake fall at Stetson, the Bulldogs would still claim the PFL automatic bid in ties with Butler and/or San Diego. Should Drake lose, and Morehead State defeat San Diego as a 4.14-point home underdog, the Eagles would have the inside track on the automatic bid.
Butler (-2.99) needs to win at Presbyterian, and hope that Drake and Morehead both lose.
the final three games between FCS and FBS schools take place this week with Charleston Southern at Florida State, The Citadel at Clemson and Wofford at South Carolina.
FBS schools are 112-6 in FBS-FCS games this season. They are a cumulative 1,912-158 (.924) since we began tracking this in 2003.
In 2024, there were 121 matchups scheduled between FBS and FCS schools with 119 playing one such game, while Hawaii and UMass each play two.
This year, 15 schools were not scheduled to play a FCS opponent. Of those fifteen schools, 5 are in the B1G (Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, USC and UCLA). Texas is the only school in the SEC that will not play a FCS program. The same is true for Virginia Tech in the ACC. In fact, Texas and Virginia Tech, along with Michigan and Houston, are repeats from last year's list of schools that played all FBS programs.
2024 FCS wins vs. FBS:
August 24: Montana State 35, New Mexico 31
September 7: St. Francis (PA) 23, Kent State 17
September 7: Idaho 17, Wyoming 13
September 7: Southern Utah 27, UTEP 24 (OT)
September 21: Monmouth 45, FIU 42
September 28: UT-Martin 24, Kennesaw 13
In 2023, FBS schools were 114-4. These were the FCS wins last year:
September 9: Idaho 33, Nevada 6
September 9: Southern Illinois 14, Northern Illinois 12
September 9: Fordham 40, Buffalo 37
September 16: Sacramento State 30, Stanford 23
MONTANA STATE - Won 11 straight overall. Won 6 straight road games.
Last: Won 30-28 at UC Davis on Saturday, November 16.
Next: Hosts Montana on Saturday, November 23.
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE - 27-game home winning streak.
Last: Won 41-10 at home over Southern Illinois on Saturday, November 16.
Next: Visits Missouri State on Saturday, November 23.
DRAKE - Had won 17 straight conference games.
Last: Lost 29-20 at home to Morehead State on Saturday, November 16.
Next: Visits Stetson on Saturday, November 23.
FLORIDA A&M - Had won 23 straight at home (2nd longest).
Last: Lost 24-21 at home to MVSU on Saturday, November 16, ending the Delta Devils' 18-game road losing streak.
Next: Versus Bethune-Cookman in the Florida Classic at Camping World Stadium in Orlando on Saturday, November 23.
NORTH DAKOTA STATE - Won 10 straight home games.
Last: Won 59-21 at home over Missouri State on Saturday, November 16.
Next: Hosts South Dakota on Saturday, November 23.
NW STATE - Lost 19 straight over-all. Lost 10 straight home games (tied with Northern Colorado)
Last: Lost 35-3 at home to McNeese on Saturday, November 16.
Next: Visits Houston Christian on Saturday, November 23.
NORTHERN COLORADO - Lost 10 straight at home (tied with NW State, LA).
Last: Lost 44-3 at home to Northern Arizona on Saturday, November 16.
Next: Visits Portland State on Saturday, November 23.
NORTH CAROLINA A&T - Lost 15 straight conference games.
Last: Lost 31-13 at Towson on Saturday, November 16.
Next: Hosts Elon on Saturday, November 23.
MVSU - Had lost 18 straight road games.
Last: Won 24-21 at Florida A&M on Saturday, November 16, also ending the Rattlers' 23-game home winning streak.
Next:. Hosts Alabama A&M on Saturday, November 23.
MURRAY STATE - Lost 17 straight road games. Lost 14 straight conference games (second to NC A&T).
Last: Lost 48-6 at FBS member Kentucky on Saturday, November 16.
Next: Visits Southern Illinois on Saturday, November 23.