Week 5 Preview: Pac-12 and SEC Showdowns Highlight Slate

September 20, 2018 by Dave Congrove

Stanford at Oregon and Texas A&M at Alabama headline this weekend's games, while FAU at UCF and Notre Dame at Wake Forest provide some intrigue.

The Cardinal blistered the Ducks in the last two meetings, including 49-7 a year ago. Stanford head coach David Shaw said on Tuesday that Bryce Love would be ready to return to action. The visitors are projected winners by 14.38 points, according to the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com.

Texas A&M hasn't defeated Alabama since 2012 when Kevin Sumlin was in his first season as head coach of the Aggies and Johnny Manziel was the QB who helped engineer the 29-24 upset in Tuscaloosa. The computer had A&M that day at 8 points under the 16-point spread that favored the Tide. This week, it has the Aggies at 14 points under the 26-point line that favors Nick Saban's bunch. To be clear, the computer isn't calling for a Texas A&M upset win as that would make Jimbo Fisher the first former Saban assistant to beat his old boss in 13 tries.

Another SEC game to watch this week sends Georgia to Missouri with the 'Dawgs favored by 14.5. The Tigers are 1-6 all-time versus Georgia, including 1-5 as SEC rivals, and lost 53-28 between the hedges in Athens last year. The computer had South Carolina upsetting Georgia a couple of weeks ago and watched the Gamecocks get burned 41-17. This week, the computer comes close to going for the upset again, but keeps the Bulldogs as a scant 1.35-point pick.

We'll stay in the SEC for Mississippi State at Kentucky, a game I find interesting because the computer called the Wildcats' upset win at Florida. This week, it says MSU will NOT cover in Lexington as it puts the number at 7.90, which is slightly under the 9-to-10-point spreads.

FAU at UCF on Friday is an intriguing matchup as it puts two strong Group of Five teams against each other who also happen to be Florida schools. Not to mention it's Lane Kiffin's chance to beat the defending national champions, even if it was self-declared. Central Florida is a 2-TD home favorite, according to the experts, but the computer is only favoring the Knights by 3.33.

Another Friday game sends Washington State to Southern California with the computer taking the Trojans by a whopping 15.26, well clear of the 3-1/2-point line. USC needs the win, after already taking 2 hits in the loss column.

On Saturday, Notre Dame journeys away from South Bend for the first time this season when the Golden Domers head to Wake Forest. This will be the fifth meeting between these schools since 2011, but also the first in Winston-Salem since 2011. The Irish are 4-0 in the series and favored by a touchdown while the computer puts it at 8.01.

Others to keep an eye on include Florida at Tennessee, Nebraska at Michigan, and TCU at Texas.

The last time the Gators and Vols knocked heads in Knoxville, Tennessee ended an 11-game losing streak in the series. This year - with a different head coach on each sideline - the computer is taking Florida by 7.5 to cover the 4.5 line.

Nebraska is looking to rebound from a stunning 24-19 upset loss at home to Troy last weekend. A win at Michigan would certainly make the 'Husker fans feel a bit better while a loss would give Scott Frost an 0-3 start to his tenure in Lincoln after going 13-0 in Orlando a year ago. The computer takes Big Blue in the Big House by 27.42 to easily cover the 18-point spread.

TCU had Ohio State on the ropes but couldn't close the deal. Meanwhile, Texas was surprisingly running USC out of Austin. Now, TCU and Texas lock horns in the state capital with TCU favored by a field goal. With apologies to Lee Corso - not so fast, my friends! The computer gives the Horned Frogs a mere 1.07-point advantage.

The college football weekend kicks off Thursday night with Tulsa at Temple in an American Conference matchup with the computer favoring the Owls by 5.94.

FBS vs. FCS

As it stands right now, 106 FBS teams will play 109 games versus FCS schools this season. Army, Florida and Liberty will each play two. There were 108 such games scheduled sat the start of the year, but Iowa State's game versus South Dakota State got washed out on Labor Day weekend, and Liberty's game versus Norfolk State was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence.

The schedule could conceivably climb back to 108 such matchups. Iowa State has conditionally scheduled Incarnate Word on December 1, which is also the date that Liberty and Norfolk State have scheduled their makeup game.

FBS schools went 17-0 vs. the FCS last week and are 83-6 in such games for the 2018 season. Since 2003, the FBS is now 1,302-123 (.914).

Here are all of the FCS victories over FBS teams this season:

August 30: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28

There are 7 FBS vs. FCS games on the schedule this week.

Streaks

UCF - Won 15 straight overall (FBS longest), Won 10 straight conference games including AAC title last year (FBS longest). Hosts FAU on Friday.

FAU - Won 9 straight conference games (FBS second-longest). Visits UCF on Friday.

Alabama - Won 20 straight home games (FBS longest). Hosts Texas A&M on Saturday.

Oklahoma - Won 17 straight road games (FBS longest). Hosts Army on Saturday.

UTEP - Lost 15 straight overall (FBS longest). Hosts New Mexico State on Saturday.

Ball State - Lost 13 straight conference games (FBS longest). Hosts Western Kentucky on Saturday.

Oregon State - Lost 21 straight road games (FBS longest). Hosts Arizona on Saturday.