The 2019 CollegeFootballPoll.com SEASON PREVIEW is here. Those who know us have discovered over the years that it is never our goal to be the first preview out. Instead, we like to wait as late as possible so that we can incorporate as much up-to-date data as possible.
Magazines go to press in the spring, often before spring practice has even taken place. Thus, they are rife with inaccurate info as players get injured, transfer to another school, or break the rules (or the law) and get dismissed from their team.
The data we have is as current and accurate as anyone can get.
Our Season Previews often offer surprises - even to me. But over the 27-year history of the Congrove Computer Rankings, the results it has spit out have been uncannily accurate.
This year, the preseason projections boil down to a national championship matchup of Michigan vs. LSU, with the Wolverines prevailing. Clemson and Oregon are the other two predicted Final Four teams, with Clemson falling to LSU in one semifinal, and Michigan knocking out Oregon in the other.
This season, for instance, we were shocked with the projection of the Final Four and the expected Number One team. But I never let my human opinions manipulate the data. After all, my computer rankings have preseason forecast nearly 50% of the teams that have wound participating in the College Football Playoff over the first 5 years of their existence, and have preseason-picked at least one of the national title game contestants 15 times in the past 26 years. It bats .750 picking straight up game winners and .533 against the spread.
As I always like to say, the computer is never actually wrong as it is simply telling us what is supposed to happen. It can't help it if the two teams playing messed up and gave us the wrong outcome.