Our 2018 Preview - Never The First Out, Just The Best Out

August 21, 2018 by Dave Congrove

The 2018 CollegeFootballPoll.com SEASON PREVIEW is here. Those who know us have discovered over the years that it is never our goal to be the first preview out. Instead, we like to wait as late as possible so that we can incorporate as much up-to-date data as possible.

Magazines go to press in the spring, often before spring practice has even taken place. Thus, they are rife with inaccurate info as players get injured, transfer to another school, or break the rules (or the law) and get dismissed from their team.

This season, we tried to wait out the final decisions on the futures of head coaches D.J. Durkin at Maryland and Urban Meyer at Ohio State. As of publication time for this article, and the compilation of data for our preview, those situations were still unresolved.

Still, the data we have is as current and accurate as anyone can get.

Our Season Previews often offer surprises - even to me. But over the 26-year history of the Congrove Computer Rankings, the results it has spit out have been uncannily accurate.

This season, for instance, we were shocked with the projection of the Final Four and the expected Number One team. But I never let my human opinions manipulate the data. After all, my computer rankings have forecasted nearly 50% of the teams in the first 4 years of the College Football Playoff, and have preseason-picked at least one of the national title game contestants 14 times in the past 25 years. It bats .750 picking straight up game winners and .533 against the spread.

As I always like to say, the computer is never actually wrong as it is simply telling us what is supposed to happen. It can't help it if the two teams playing messed up and gave us the wrong outcome.