Preview: Oregon State at Boise State
September 20, 2010
Boise State's home-opener is a dandy, pitting the computer's top-ranked Broncos against the visiting 30th-ranked Beavers.
Oregon State hasn't had much success here. The Beavers were blown out 42-14 in 2006 and 53-34 in 2004. Their only win here, a 37-30 victory in 1989, came when the school was playing 1-AA football. However, Oregon State leads the overall series 4-2.
The computer leans heavily on the homestanding Broncos, forecasting a 23.63-point victory which would extend the nation's second-longest overall winning streak to 17 games.
Rarely does any visiting team win on the blue carpet at Bronco Stadium. Boise State has 26 home wins overall and 56 regular season home wins. The last team to beat Boise State here was Boston College in the 2005 MPC Computers Bowl (now known as the Humanitarian Bowl). Washington State was the last regular season game-winner here, defeating the Broncos 41-20 on September 8, 2001.
With its win over Virginia Tech to start the season, the Broncos are now 5-1 in their last six matches against BCS conference schools.
Oregon State enters this game on the heels of a disappointing performance at home against Louisville. While the Beavers secured a 35-28 win, they entered that contest as a nearly 4-TD computer favorite.
Meanwhile, Boise State went to Laramie and crushed Wyoming 50-6, eclipsing the computer's expected victory margin by nearly 15 points.
Over the last 8 seasons, the computer has correctly forecasted the outright winner of Boise State college football games 93.1% of the time, posting a record of 81-6. As such, it is the computer's top-performing team. But the computer's ATS (against the spread) record with Boise State is the 19th worst, with a record of 38-43 in the same period.
This year, the computer is 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS on Oregon State games. And it is 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS on Boise State games.
National coverage is at 8 p.m. (ET) on ABC.