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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2012 Regular Season: 94-27 SU (.777), 67-54 ATS (.554)
2013 Regular Season: 106-15 SU (.876), 75-46 ATS (.620)
This Week: 0-3 SU (.000), 0-3 ATS (.000)

Saturday, December 7
Marshall (-5) by 5.50 over RICE (CUSA Championship at Rice) - The computer trend line has Marshal winning by more than 9 after factoring in Rice's home field advantage. The Herd lead the conference in total offense and rank 9th nationally. Rice is 3rd in CUSA, but trails Marshall by over 90 yards per game to rank 61st nationally. Rice has the statistical edge on defense but only by 7.6 yards per game, and Marshall actually has a slight edge on scoring defense.
Rice won 41-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Ohio State (-6) by 7.33 over Michigan State (Big Ten Championship at Indianapolis) - My personal feelings aside that Michigan State will win outright (defense wins championships), the computer trend line favors The Ohio State University by 9.45. Sparty leads the nation in total defense and rushing defense while ranking 9th in pass defense. But Michigan State also ranks 97th in total offense while Ohio State ranks 46th.
Michigan State won 34-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Missouri (-2) by 4.72 over Auburn (SEC Championship at Atlanta) - The trend line has Missouri by just 2.74 but the opening Vegas line of (-2) for Missouri quickly flipped to Auburn (-2), providing quite a bit more cushion for Missouri.
Auburn won 59-42. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2012 Regular Season: 52-17 SU (.754), 42-27 ATS (.609)
2013 Regular Season: 65-11 SU (.855), 39-37 ATS (.513)
This Week: 1-0 SU (1.000), 1-0 ATS (1.000)

Thursday, December 5
Louisville (-7) by 2.19 over CINCINNATI - Louisville was a 3.56-point preseason favorite and is now only a 0.82-point pick on the trend line.
Lousivlle won 31-24 in OT. The computer won SU, lost ATS. (The computer does not score pushes - details here).

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2012 Regular Season: 36-50 SU (.419), 42-44 ATS (.488)
2013 Regular Season: 43-45 SU (.489), 55-33 ATS (.625)
This Week: 1-1 SU (.500), 1-1 ATS (.500)

Friday, December 6
Bowling Green by 5.50 over Northern Illinois (-5) MAC Championship at Detroit) - The computer would have taken BGSU by 5.61 in the preseason and still takes the Falcons by 5.50 - hardly any change at all.
Bowling Green won 47-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, December 7
Louisiana-Lafayette by 5.33 over SOUTH ALABAMA (-1.5) - UL-L has already accepted a New Orleans Bowl bid. South Alabama can become bowl eligible with a win, but the Jaguars shouldn't expect an invitation anywhere with a 6-6 record as there is a surplus of teams to pick from. The Ragin' Cajuns' QB, Terrance Broadway, is doubtful. Freshman Brooks Haack was 10-of-14 for 126 yards and a TD in Saturday's loss to UL-Monroe.
South Alabama won 30-8. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

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