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11/24/09-11/28/09


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/3-9/7
Week 2: 9/10-9/12
Week 3: 9/17-9/19
Week 4: 9/24-9/26
Week 5: 9/30-10/3
Week 6: 10/6-10/10
Week 7: 10/13-10/17
Week 8: 10/21-10/24
Week 9: 10/27-11/1
Week 10: 11/3-11/8
Week 11: 11/10-11/15
Week 12: 11/18-11/21
Week 13: 11/24-11/28
Week 14: 12/3-12/5
Week 15: 12/12-12/12
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2009 Regular Season: 65-24 SU (.730), 44-45 ATS (.494)
Last Week: 3-4 SU (.429), 2-5 ATS (.286)
This Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 5-2 ATS (.714)

Friday, November 27
Buffalo (-1.5) by 3.89 over KENT STATE - The injuries have piled up on Kent State and continued last week with the loss of true freshman QB Spencer Keith. The Bulls lead the Golden Flashes in all the major statistical categories.
Buffalo won 9-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-10) by 16.52 over Northern Illinois - Northern Illinois was eliminated from the MAC West title chase with last week's loss at Ohio. The Chippewas have clinched a berth in the conference championship game. CMU has won each of its MAC games by at least 11 points, and has won its 3 conference home games by at least 27 points.
Central Michigan won 45-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Pitt (-1.5) by 2.93 over WEST VIRGINIA - Pitt knocked West Virginia out of the national championship game two years ago with a 13-9 upset at Morgantown. The Mountaineer faithful would love to see their team gain a measure of revenge, though a Pitt loss wouldn't eliminate it from the Big East title chase or even the BCS bowl pool. Pitt hosts Cincinnati next week to determine the Big East champion. Pitt ranks 2nd in the conference in offense and 1st in defense. Pitt RB Dion Lewis is the conference's leading rusher, and WVU's Noel Devine is 2nd.
West Virginia won 19-16. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 28
Arizona (-3.5) by 4.43 over ARIZONA STATE - Arizona saw its PAC-10 title dreams go up in flames in the last two weeks with losses to Cal and Oregon, the latter in double-overtime. The computer is 10-1 SU with ASU and 8-2 with Arizona. The Wildcats are 2nd in the PAC-10 on offense while the Sun Devils are 9th. These are the top two teams defensively in the PAC-10 with ASU topping the list.
Arizona won 20-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Wake Forest (-4) by 6.63 over DUKE - Wake has won 9 in-a-row over Duke by an average of 33.8 to 21.2.
Wake Forest won 45-34. The computer won SU, won ATS.

UNLV (-3) by 8.51 over San Diego State - The line represents nothing more than homefield advantage and the computer likes the Rebels by a good deal more. The biggest question is what kind of effort will UNLV give for lame-duck Mike Sanford's final game.
UNLV won 28-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Virginia Tech (-13) by 17.86 over VIRGINIA - Virginia ranks 10th in the conference in rushing defense and Virginia Tech boasts the nation's No. 5 rusher in redshirt freshman Ryan Williams (1,355 yards, 15 TD's). The Hokies have won 9 of the last 10 meetings and 6 of those exceeded this year's spread.
Virginia Tech won 42-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2009 Regular Season: 69-19 SU (.784), 48-40 ATS (.545)
Last Week: 8-5 SU (.615), 8-5 ATS (.615)
This Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 5-2 ATS (.714)

Saturday, November 28
LSU (-6) by 3.60 over Arkansas - The computer is 11-0 SU, 6-4 ATS with the Razorbacks. It's 10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS with the Tigers. The Hogs boast the nation's No. 8 passing offense against LSU's 23rd-ranked pass defense. Arkansas tops the SEC in total offense while LSU ranks 11th. Defensively, LSU ranks 6th while Arkansas is last.
LSU won 33-30 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.

BYU (-7.5) by 2.81 over Utah - BYU dominated this rivalry in the 70's and 80's, but Utah has turned the tables recently with 5 wins in the last 7 meetings, including 48-24 last year. You have to go back to 1996 to find a BYU victory in this series by more than 7 points. These teams rank 2nd and 3rd in total offense in the MWC with BYU having a slight advantage. They rank 3rd and 4th defensively with the Utes having the advantage.
BYU won 26-23 in overtime. The computer won SU, won ATS.

GEORGIA TECH (-9.5) by 7.88 over Georgia - The Jackets ended a 7-game losing streak to the Bulldogs last year, but that was by just 3 points. The opening line had dipped to between 7 and 8.5 as of Tuesday night.
Georgia won 30-24. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Miami, Fla. (-7) by 2.56 over USF - The computer is 7-1 ATS with USF games.
Miami won 31-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TCU (-42) by 36.14 over New Mexico - TCU has just 1 win all year that would cover this spread and that was a 43-point win at San Diego State.
TCU won 51-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

STANFORD (-10) by 8.05 over Notre Dame - Notre Dame's biggest margin of defeat this year is 7 points. Stanford's 97th-ranked pass defense will have to stop Notre Dame's 6th-ranked passing offense, and Notre Dame's 80th-ranked rush defense will try to slow Stanford's 19th-ranked rushing offense.
Stanford won 45-38. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WASHINGTON (-26) by 15.67 over Washington State - Washington State has actually won 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Huskies haven't won a game in this series by more than 12 points since 2000. These are the two worst teams in the PAC-10 in scoring defense.
Washington won 30-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2009 Regular Season: 27-45 SU (.375), 39-33 ATS (.542)
Last Week: 1-2 SU (.333), 1-2 ATS (.333)
This Week: 2-1 SU (.667), 2-1 ATS (.667)

Saturday, November 28
Utah State by 1.44 over IDAHO (-3) - I must admit that Idaho seems like the smarter pick. The Vandals are 7-4 overall, 4-3 in the WAC, and 4-1 at home. They lost 31-21 to Fresno State in their last home game. The Aggies are 3-8 overall, 2-5 in the conference and 0-6 on the road. This should be a high-scoring track meet.
Utah State won 52-49. The computer won SU, won ATS.

KENTUCKY by 0.18 over Tennessee (-3) - Kentucky (7-4, 3-4) enters this home game with a better record than Tennessee (6-5, 3-4), but hasn't defeated the Vols since 1984 - that's a losing streak of 24 in-a-row and the longest current streak that one team has over another. Rich Brooks' troops are coming off their first win at Georgia since 1977 and look to shake another monkey off their back. Kentucky is just 3-3 at home and 0-3 in home SEC games with losses to Alabama, Florida and Mississippi State. Tennessee is 0-3 in SEC road games at Alabama, Florida and Ole Miss.
Tennessee won 26-20 in OT. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

UTEP by 0.54 over Marshall (-3) - Marshall (6-5) needs a win to improve its bowl outlook as CUSA has 5 bowl slots and 6 eligible teams. That number could increase to 7 if UAB beats UCF this week. The Miners saw a 29-16 lead in the 4th quarter fall apart quickly at Rice, thanks partly to 3 fumbles that included 2 by national rushing yardage leader Donald Buckram. These teams have split their only two previous meetings with the home team winning each contest.
UTEP won 52-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.



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