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11/13/07-11/17/07


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 4: 9/20-9/22
Week 5: 9/27-9/29
Week 6: 10/2-10/7
Week 7: 10/10-10/14
Week 8: 10/18-10/21
Week 9: 10/25-10/28
Week 10: 11/1-11/4
Week 11: 11/6-11/10
Week 12: 11/13-11/17
Week 13: 11/20-11/24
Week 14: 11/29-12/1
Week 15: Bowls
Archiving began in Week 4 in the 2007 Season.

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2007 Regular Season: 54-19 SU (.740), 36-37 ATS (.493)
Last Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 2-4 ATS (.333)
This Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 4-1 ATS (.800)

Saturday, November 17th
TENNESSEE (-12) by 15.79 over Vanderbilt -
The Commodores have demonstrated that they don't have the weapons to keep up with the SEC's better offensive teams. Lucky for them, they don't face the SEC's No. 1 and 2 offenses - LSU and Arkansas - because they have already fallen to the SEC's Nos. 3, 4, 6 and 7 offenses (Florida, Kentucky, Alabama and Georgia) and they are about to face No. 5. Also worth noting is that Vanderbilt's five wins have come against Richmond (FCS), Mississippi (the SEC West cellar-dweller), two MAC teams (Eastern Michigan and Miami, Ohio) and a South Carolina team that has lost four straight games.
Tennessee won 25-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

WAKE FOREST (-6) by 14.18 over N.C. State - It took Tom O'Brien seven games to notch his first win against a FBS school as the head coach of the Wolfpack. Now, his team has won four straight and would become bowl eligible with a win at Wake Forest. After consecutive road losses to Virginia and Clemson, the Demon Deacons return home where they have won four straight. Something's gotta give and I just like Wake at home when the spread is less than a TD. The difference in the computer spread and the Vegas spread is huge.
Wake Forest won 38-18. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Brigham Young (-11) by 13.40 over WYOMING - The computer is 5-3 ATS with BYU, 7-3 with Wyoming. Can Joe Glenn and his Wyoming troops rebound from last week's 50-0 loss at Utah in which Glenn flipped the finger to Kyle Wittingham after the Utes kicked a 3rd-quarter onside kick while leading 43-0? BYU is 5-0 in the Mountain West and close to clinching a second consecutive Mountain West title.
Brigham Young won 35-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Ohio State (-3.5) by 6.11 over MICHIGAN - Jim Tressel is 5-1 against Michigan, and four of the five victories were by four points or more. This is one of the greatest rivalries - if not the greatest - and it just becomes more interesting when you have a pick on the line. The way this season has gone, I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan steals this game and wins the Big Ten title to give Big Blue a dramatic and positive finish to a season that began with the most embarrassing loss in Wolverine football history (34-32 to Appalachian State).
Ohio State won 14-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Missouri (-7) by 7.83 over KANSAS STATE -
If Kansas State can't keep up with Nebraska (73-31 loss last week) , which has the nation's 112th-ranked defense and 18th-ranked offense, how are they supposed to stay within a touchdown of a Missouri team that has the nation's 57th-ranked defense and 4th-ranked offense?
Missouri won 49-32. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2007 Regular Season: 57-13 SU (.814), 37-33 ATS (.529)
Last Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 3-2 ATS (.600)
This Week: 3-2 SU (.600), 3-2 ATS (.600)

Thursday, November 15th
Oregon (-12.5) by 8.05 over ARIZONA -
The computer is 7-2 ATS with both teams and the PAC-10 is the computer's top-performing conference with a .608 ATS win percentage. The Wildcats have registered back-to-back wins against Washington and UCLA, and have not lost a home game by more than two points.
Arizona won 34-24. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 17th
Central Florida (-13) by 4.78 over SMU
- UCF's 34-17 win at Southern Miss earlier this year is its only road win by more than 13 points since a Nov. 9, 2002 game at Buffalo. The Golden Knights only won by 14 last week at UAB which had been blown out by an average of 37 points in its three previous games. The Mustangs are 1-4 at home, but two of the losses came in overtime, and Texas Tech is the only team to beat them by more than 7 points on their own turf.
Central Florida won 49-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

SOUTH FLORIDA (-7) by 4.26 over Louisville -The computer is 6-3 ATS with both of these schools who have turned into disappointments. Louisville had all the preseason hype but is just 5-5 and must either beat USF this week, or Rutgers next week, to avoid staying home for the bowl season. USF started 6-0 and rose to No. 2 in the BCS Standings, creating a wave of euphoria in Tampa. But, the Bulls dropped three straight Big East games and found themselves tied for last place in the conference with Syracuse until they drubbed the Orange 41-10 last Saturday.
South Florida won 55-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NEW MEXICO STATE (-9.5) by 4.94 over Utah State - The computer is an insane 81-8 (.910) with straight-up picks on games involving WAC teams this season. Both schools are nicknamed Aggies so I'll have to make sure I sue their formal name in ever sentence. Yes, Utah State is winless three of the losses have come by a touchdown or field goal. Meanwhile, two of New Mexico State's four wins were over FCS schools. Otherwise, NMSU has knocked off Idaho by 14 and UTEP by 5 - two schools that have five wins between them. The computer is 6-3 ATS with New Mexico State, 5-5 with Utah State.
Utah State won 35-17. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

NAVY (-15.5) by 8.98 over Northern Illinois -I don't see how Navy can be favored by 15 points over anyone as its defense can't stop water in a glass. The Midshipmen have surrendered 44 points or more in each of their last five games, including 62 last week to a North Texas team that is now just 1-8. It is true that NIU is anemic on offense as the Huskies have scored 21 points or fewer in 7 of their 11 games. However, North Texas was only averaging 20.4 points per game before last week's outburst against Navy.
Navy won 35-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, every projected upset is listed.
2007 Regular Season: 31-40 SU (.437), 39-32 ATS (.549)
Last Week: 2-5 SU (.286), 4-3 ATS (.571)
This Week: 1-2 SU (.333), 2-1 ATS (.667)

Saturday, November 17th
BUFFALO by 2.09 over Bowling Green (-1) -
By Buffalo standards, this has been a good season with an improvement to 4 wins - the most since they've enjoyed since entering the FBS in 1999. Buffalo only won 12 games from 1999-2006. The Bulls are 4-2 in the MAC after winning a total of 8 in their first 8 seasons at the FBS level. Bowling Green won last year's game 48-40 in triple overtime.
Bowling Green won 31-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

San Jose State by 0.26 over LOUISIANA TECH (-5.5) - The computer is hardly giving the Spartans a ringing endorsement with its 0.26 advantage. Both schools enter the contest with 4-6 records over-all, 3-3 in the WAC. Both teams have defeated Utah State, Idaho and New Mexico State, in addition to an FCS school. Louisiana Tech, under first-year head coach Derek Dooley, has already passed last year's victory total of 3.
Louisiana Tech won 27-23. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Oregon State by 3.99 over WASHINGTON STATE (-2) - Right now, only five PAC-10 teams are bowl eligible and the Beavers (6-4) are tied for last in that group with California in the likely bowl pecking order. It's very likely that the PAC-10 will not qualify more than 6 teams for bowl games and Washington State (4-6) is one of those teams that will be left out unless it defeats Oregon State this week, and then beats Washington in the Apple Cup rivalry next week.
Oregon State won 52-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.



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