Thursday, November 8
ARKANSAS STATE (-1.5) by 5.16 over Louisiana-Monroe - QB Kolton Browning is out for ULM after injuring his left foot in late in the first quarter of last week's 40-24 loss at rival Louisiana-Lafayette. The Red Wolves have won four straight over mostly low-level opposition, but one of those was a 50-27 blowout at Louisiana-Lafayette just two games ago.
Arkansas State won 45-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Friday, November 9
Pittsburgh (-3.5) by 5.21 over UCONN - The Panthers are coming off a triple-overtime loss at Notre Dame while the Huskies were bowing by 7 at a pedestrian-to-bad USF team. UConn relies on its 9th-ranked defense because its offensive numbers are barely existent, ranks 120th in rushing and 59th in passing.
UConn won 24-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Saturday, November 10
Cincinnati (-10.5) by 10.92 over TEMPLE - Temple's season has gone south from a 7-4 preseason forecast with 3 straight losses to Rutgers, Pitt and Louisville by 25, 30 and 28.
Cincinnati won 34-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Kent State (-5) by 7.57 over MIAMI, OHIO - Kent State was a 3.15-point preseason underdog in this game and has moved to a 7.57-point favorite. The Golden Flashes have 8 wins for the first time since 1976 and their only 9-win season in history came in 1973 under Don James who went on to coach Washington from 1975-1992.
Kent State won 48-32. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Louisville (-3) by 7.09 over SYRACUSE - The Cardinals hit the road after three straight home games and look to stay unbeaten while the Orange need to win 2 of their last 3 to become bowl eligible. Louisville owns the Big East's best red zone conversion ratio at 97.4% while Syracuse is next-to-last at 78.05%.
Syracuse won 45-26. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
SAN DIEGO STATE (-8) by 13.45 over Air Force - The Falcons have the No. 3 rushing offense while SDSU is No. 22 in that category. The problem for the AFA is that the Aztecs rank 27th in stopping the run and the Falcons rank 117th in that department. Air Force is coming off a 41-21 home loss to lowly Army while San Diego State is coming off a monumental 21-19 win at Boise State. Both teams only have 1 conference loss. San Diego State is already bowl eligible with 7 wins while Air Force needs 1 more to get there.
San Diego State won 28-9. The computer won SU, won ATS.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-8) by 10.25 over West Virginia - The Cowboys have gone from 1.98-point preseason computer favorites to over 10-point favorites now and have better stats on both sides of the ball.
Oklahoma State won 55-34. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Western Michigan (-2.5) by 3.74 over BUFFALO - The computer is a combined 16-3 SU and 11-6 ATS with these teams in 2012. Buffalo is 0-5 all-time vs. WMU though the last two games went to overtime.
Buffalo won 289-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Tulsa (-2.5) by 4.69 over HOUSTON - This game features two high-powered offenses but only one defense and that belongs to Tulsa.
Tulsa won 41-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Louisiana Tech (-20) by 21.44 over TEXAS STATE - The Bulldogs average 240 yards more per game than the Bobcats. The computer is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in picking Louisiana Tech games. It is 7-1 SU, 6-1 ATS in picking Texas State games.
Louisiana Tech won 62-55. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
Ucf (-12) by 14.84 over UTEP - 20 would be a more likely margin for UCF which averages 50 more yards on offense than the Miners and allows 90 yards less. As a rule, comparisons like this are an unsound application of transitive property but, just as an example, UTEP lost 17-0 at home to SMU while UCF dispatched the Mustangs by 25. (Of course, N.C. State beat Florida State by 1 and lost to Virginia by 27).
UCF won 31.24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.